Conference preview: C-USA

It's been said a thousand times, mostly when the discussion focuses on the gap between Conference USA's haves and have-nots -- otherwise known as Memphis and everybody else. People start making predictions, then routinely unleash the old, "Memphis' second team could finish second in C-USA behind its first team."

Moments later, they laugh and laugh, but rarely do they offer the specifics to support that statement.

I have the specifics.

Assume, for this argument, that Memphis' first team -- even after losing two NBA players, plus a third who thought he was -- is Willie Kemp, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey. That would make the second team Andre Allen, Doneal Mack, Jeremy Hunt, Pierre Niles and Kareem Cooper.

That's two former Top 75 national prospects (Mack and Hunt), two big men (Niles and Cooper) with the potential to dominate and a point guard (Allen) who actually rejected scholarship offers from Indiana, Tennessee and Houston to walk on at Memphis. And guess how many C-USA coaches would trade their starting lineup for that starting lineup?

Probably everyone except Houston's Tom Penders. So in fairness, Memphis' second team might not actually finish second in C-USA behind its first team. Third is the safer bet. But I suppose the point remains the same, which is why it shouldn't surprise anybody when you-know-who is projected to cruise through this league with one or two blemishes, at the most.

1. Memphis

Antonio Anderson, Memphis are poised to take C-USA despite losing two players to the NBA. (Getty Images)

Reasons to be excited: While Memphis did lose its top three scorers from an Elite Eight team, the talent left behind still, as pointed out above, far exceeds anything anybody else in the league possesses. There are five returnees who played at least 15 minutes a game in the Tigers' fast-paced system, and though Darius Washington's ill-advised leap to the NBA means Memphis is without a solid finisher, the point guard position will be in much better hands when manned by Kemp and Allen. Truth is, that's a good trade.

Reasons to be depressed: Shawne Williams always said he was on the one-year plan, so nobody should've been shocked when he became the Pacers' first-round pick after his freshman season. Still, had the 6-8 forward returned to school, the Tigers wouldn't be searching for their next star; he would've long been identified. Instead, a go-to player has to develop on this roster, meaning Douglas-Roberts, Anderson or Hunt must be capable of receiving a pass, creating a play and making a basket in the final minutes of a close contest for Memphis to be considered elite.

How it'll all shake out: These Tigers won't be as explosive or dominant as last season's Tigers, but they could be just as good and go just as far. Again, a role player from last season must develop into a clutch player this season. But as long as that happens, Memphis should survive a tough non-league slate of games, coast through much of C-USA, receive a good seed in the NCAA Tournament and then advance to the Sweet 16, at least.

2. Houston

Reasons to be excited: Oliver Lafayette was a junior college transfer who adjusted almost immediately. The 6-2 guard averaged 15.7 points per game in his first season at Houston, and if Texas transfer Dion Dowell can have a similar impact this season, the Cougars might have a chance to take a run at Memphis and at least make the C-USA race interesting.

Reasons to be depressed: Lanny Smith had foot surgery in August, and it's unclear when he'll play again. However, a school official said Wednesday that Smith is two weeks ahead of schedule, and that he's practicing about every other day. Consequently, it appears the senior will opt out of a medical redshirt and be on the court this season, and it's likely Smith will return prior to the start of league play. Still, Smith's injury combined with Ramon Dyer's departure ensures the Cougars will at the very least be starting the season down two of the top three scorers who helped them to a 21-10 record in 2005-06.

How it'll all shake out: With Smith healthy, the Cougars should stockpile wins in league play and build a nice total. But it would still be beneficial to have a quality non-league victory or two heading into the New Year, and games at Saint Louis (Nov. 25), at Arizona (Dec. 17) and a trip to the Rainbow Classic (Dec. 21-23) provide those opportunities. Either way, the NCAA Tournament selection committee is supposed to consider which players are available and when, meaning even if the Cougars stumble early without Smith they'll have a built-in excuse, and so a strong finish should be enough to push them into the NCAA Tournament under these guidelines for the first time since 1992.

3. UAB

Reasons to be excited: When Mike Anderson left for Missouri, UAB's only chance to keep its momentum as a program was to hire another recognizable coach. In landing former Indiana coach Mike Davis, the school succeeded, and that Wen Mukubu, Paul Delaney, Frank Holmes and Lawrence Kinnard return from an NCAA Tournament team means a drastic fall doesn't have to come next.

Reasons to be depressed: Carldell "Squeaky" Johnson was one of the more underrated point guards in the nation last season, and his averages of 7.3 points, 6.3 assists and 2.6 steals were what made the Blazers effective on both ends of the court. Johnson's departure combined with the loss of Marvett McDonald, who averaged a team-best 14.8 points per game last season, requires UAB to operate without its best two players.

How it'll all shake out: The great thing for the Blazers, though bad thing for this league, is that if a program has any talent at all it's difficult to slip too much. Consequently, it's probably a given that UAB remains in the top echelon, though this is likely the season that three-year string of NCAA Tournament appearances comes to an end.

4. Rice

Reasons to be excited: Morris Almond's return to school after testing the NBA waters means Rice has one of the better scorers in the nation for one more season. The 6-6 wing averaged 21.9 points per game as a junior, and that Lorenzo Williams is back to deliver Almond the ball makes the Owls a legitimate threat to make the postseason. Williams, a senior point guard, averaged 10.5 points and 6.1 assists last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Almond, from the wing, was the Owls' leading rebounder last season, which is one of the reasons they were beaten on the glass by an average of 3.6 boards. Almond is good, but he can't do everything. So somebody down low has to be able to grab missed shots, and outside of Patrick Britton there's no obvious candidate.

How it'll all shake out: Morris and Williams alone make Rice better than mostly everybody else in this league, regardless of the rest of the parts. But to make the NIT -- or perhaps even the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1970 -- it'll take somebody in the frontcourt becoming a consistent contributor. Almond is good enough to get 25 a night, but Rice would be better if he didn't have to play that role.

5. UTEP

Reasons to be excited: Tony Barbee took over the UTEP program at an inopportune time in August, so the former Memphis assistant wasn't afforded the opportunity to flex his recruiting muscles for immediate help. But Barbee already has four Class of 2007 commitments, including Memphis high school standout Randy Culpepper and former DePaul signee Manuel Cass. So while UTEP will be limited by its talent this season, Barbee has help on the way, the kind of help, in fact, that should quickly push UTEP near the top of C-USA.

Reasons to be depressed: Though talent is coming, it can't arrive in El Paso soon enough. Barbee inherited a team losing its top four scorers, including Jason Williams and John Tofi. To put things into perspective, consider there are only three players on the roster -- Stefon Jackson, Kevin Henderson and Maurice Thomas -- who so much as scored a point last season.

How it'll all shake out: With so many new faces, UTEP was destined for a drop no matter if the coach was Billy Gillispie, Doc Sadler or Barbee. The Miners have averaged 24 wins the past three years (one under Gillispie, two under Sadler), but it's hard to imagine them approaching that number this season, and any postseason berth would be a huge accomplishment.

6. SMU

Reasons to be excited: Matt Doherty has injected some enthusiasm into this program, using his North Carolina pedigree to gain attention in a city (Dallas) so big it's easy for the local college basketball team to get lost and become forgotten in the sports scene. Four of the top five scorers are back from last season, and Derrick Roberts, Devon Pearson and Bamba Fall, a 7-1 shot-blocking machine, give SMU a nice core of players to ease the transition of the coaching change.

Reasons to be depressed: Bryan Hopkins was SMU's best player last season, averaging 14.5 points in his final year of college. And while there are multiple key players back, they were merely key players on a team that finished 13-16. So is that really a good thing?

How it'll all shake out: Like Barbee at UTEP, Doherty is already recruiting at a level higher than the majority of everybody else in C-USA, most recently gaining a commitment from Papa Dia, a 6-9 center who also garnered serious interest from Louisville and Oklahoma. So while this season will surely have its ups and downs, once Doherty gets his guys on campus it's reasonable to expect SMU will steadily rise until it's battling Houston, UAB, UTEP -- and perhaps even Memphis -- on a yearly basis.

7. Central Florida

Reasons to be excited: Two of the top four scorers are back, including Josh Peppers and his 13.7 points per game. The inside threat to his outside threat could be Stanley Billings, a 6-11 center/former Marine who averaged 13.9 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.6 blocks last season in junior college.

Reasons to be depressed: In all, four players who averaged at least 17 minutes last season are gone, including Justin Rose and his averages of 10.5 points and 5.7 rebounds. If Billings isn't as good as advertised, then UCF will be in trouble on the glass considering the top two rebounders from last season are now off doing other things.

How it'll all shake out: Kirk Speraw wisely downgraded his non-league schedule, replacing Florida and Kentucky with Minnesota and Colorado. One of those games might actually be winnable, but overall Central Florida is still trying to adjust to the move to Conference USA, and a finish in the top half of this league would be a nice accomplishment moving forward.

8. Tulsa

Reasons to be excited: Three of the top four scorers from last season return, including the leading rebounder Charles Ramsdell and second-leading scorer Brett McDade. Among the newcomers expected to make an impact is Roderick Earls, though he isn't really a newcomer at all. Earls, a 6-2 point guard, was the MVP of the National Junior College Athletic Association National Tournament in 2005, and was set to play at Tulsa last season. Instead, he suffered a season-ending foot injury the day before the opener, and thus took a medical redshirt. Earls is now finally ready to play after practicing with Tulsa during the second half of last season.

Reasons to be depressed: This program was in bad shape when Doug Wojcik took over last year, and it was clear from the outset he was in for a lengthy rebuilding job. So trying to significantly improve in the win-loss department this season might be asking too much, especially considering leading scorer Anthony Price has exhausted his eligibility.

How it'll all shake out: Eventually, Tulsa will return to respectability under Wojcik, the former North Carolina and Michigan State assistant. But success is probably still at least a year away, meaning a middle-of-the-pack finish in C-USA is about all that can be expected.

9. Tulane

Reasons to be excited: The Green Wave get to start the season practicing and playing at home. And while that might not seem like a big deal, it is nothing to take for granted for this team, which, like much of New Orleans, found itself displaced following last year's Hurricane Katrina. On the court, six of the top seven scorers return, including junior forward David Gomez, who averaged 11.9 points last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Quincy Davis, though unheralded, was a solid player at Tulane, and the Green Wave will miss him. The 6-9 forward averaged 13.1 points and 5.8 rebounds last season. Both those numbers were team highs.

How it'll all shake out: Any sense of normalcy for this program and second-year coach Dave Dickerson will be considered a move in the right direction. Winning at a high level, however, is still an unrealistic goal.

10. Southern Miss

Reasons to be excited: Sophomore Courtney Beasley returns after averaging 10.7 points last season. Eleven newcomers, including eight freshmen, offer reason to hope, even if it is completely blind.

Reasons to be depressed: Larry Eustachy's first two years at Southern Miss have come without the immediate jolt of success a former National Coach of the Year sometimes provides a program. And with only one returning starter, it's difficult to imagine things getting better this season despite a foundation possibly being put into place.

How it'll all shake out: The constant turnover of personnel has created instability in the program, and it's possible Beasley is the only player Eustachy has recruited to Southern Miss who he ultimately felt was worth keeping. Giving Eustachy the benefit of the doubt -- if only because I like second-chance stories -- I'll predict that with this super-sized recruiting class he finally got it right, and the former Iowa State coach will be back to his winning ways in a season or two. Just not this season.

11. Marshall

Reasons to be excited: Fourth-year coach Ron Jirsa has pledged to play faster this season. That's good, I think, because -- and this is a pretty solid rule for all coaches at all levels -- if you're going to lose it's always better to lose while being entertaining, and playing fast is more entertaining than playing slow.

Reasons to be depressed: The Thundering Herd only averaged 63.9 points in C-USA games last season, and now the top two scorers are gone. In Mark Patton, Marshall also lost its top rebounder.

How it'll all shake out: In fairness, the upgrade in leagues didn't help. But the truth is that Marshall has won just 30 games in three years under Jirsa. That's an average of 10 per season, and, sadly, there's no guarantee the Thundering Herd will better than that number this season.

12. East Carolina

Reasons to be excited: East Carolina fans who hated watching their players lose last season should celebrate. This season, there is almost all new players to watch lose and surround starters Sam Hinnant, Courtney Captain and Jeremy Ingram. Eleven of the 12 other Pirates who scored a point last season have either exhausted their eligibility or been encouraged to relocate, evidence that second-year coach Ricky Stokes wanted to start fresh.

Reasons to be depressed: Unfortunately for ECU, one of the players gone is Corey Rouse. He averaged 14.2 points and 10.8 rebounds as a senior last season, providing one of the few bright spots for East Carolina. The Pirates have nobody returning who averaged even four boards last season.

How it'll all shake out: It's good that Stokes has the confidence of ECU athletic director Terry Holland, because otherwise he would not have felt liberated enough to make such wholesale changes after his first season. Either way, things should get worse before they get better, and that's saying something considering the Pirates only won eight games last season.