Nov. 10, 2006

Conference preview: West Coast

By Gary Parrish | CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
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Everybody knows Gonzaga is dominant in this league. Still, the numbers are impressive.

• Six straight West Coast Conference titles.

• Three straight WCC Tournament titles.

• Eight straight NCAA Tournament appearances.

Picking against the Bulldogs here would be like picking against the Atlanta Braves in the National League East -- until this past season, of course. The good news for Gonzaga is that while it did lose that shaggy-haired fellow we all know and love, it didn't lose the equivalent of Leo Mazzone.

That would be Mark Few.

He's back.

So the Zags will be fine, and they'll be holding the trophy again.

1. Gonzaga

Reasons to be excited: Josh Heytvelt, bothered by injuries last season, is now healthy. He's looked good in the preseason, averaging 21.5 points and 9.0 rebounds in a pair of exhibition wins. Meanwhile, recruiting is going well, evidence being Gonzaga's signing of four elite prospects this week. Austin Daye, a 6-9 wing from California, is the best of the bunch.

Reasons to be depressed: Adam Morrison is gone, in case you didn't hear. But another departure tough to endure is the loss J.P. Batista, who averaged 19.3 points and 9.4 rebounds last season while helping the Zags make the Sweet 16.

How it'll all shake out: Relative to its own success, it appears Gonzaga might be down slightly with Morrison and Batista missing. Still, the Bulldogs are the class of this conference, and it's not even close. So they should again waltz through the league, earn another NCAA Tournament bid and take another shot at the Sweet 16.

2. Loyola Marymount

Reasons to be excited: Brandon Worthy and Matthew Knight are back, giving Loyola Marymount the best inside-outside threat in the league. Worthy, a guard, and Knight, a center, combined to average 31.2 points last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Outside of Knight, who averaged 10.0 rebounds as a junior, the Lions don't have a veteran who averaged more than 4.3 boards in 2005-06. That's not good for a team that was slightly outrebounded by its opponents last season.

How it'll all shake out: It's doubtful the Lions can dethrone Gonzaga at the top of the league, but they could make a push if they get through the beginning of the schedule. Loyola Marymount opens with games against Oral Roberts, at Mississippi State and against New Mexico State. And while that might not seem too daunting from the surface, that's three borderline NCAA Tournament teams, any of whom could beat the Lions.

3. San Francisco

Reasons to be excited: Armondo Surratt and Alan Wiggins, the top two scorers from last season, return for the Dons. They'll be joined by Johnny Dukes, who missed all but a few minutes of last season with a foot injury, and freshman Jay Watkins, a 6-8 forward who was a recruiting coup for coach Jesse Evans.

Reasons to be depressed: Though Surratt is a great perimeter scorer, he's not great from the perimeter considering he made only 27.7 percent of his 3-point attempts last season. As a team, the Dons shot 66.2 percent from the free-throw line, and it's hard to be an NCAA Tournament team doing that.

How it'll all shake out: With multiple high-major transfers on the roster, including Surratt, coach Jessie Evans has the talent to finish near the top of this league. An NCAA Tournament bid is unlikely, but the Dons have a real shot at the NIT.

4. San Diego

Reasons to be excited: A trio of seniors return to give USD a solid core. The leader of the group is Ross DeRogatis, a guard who averaged 12.0 points last season while shooting 41.6 percent from 3-point range. Gyno Pomare, a sophomore, is also back after leading the WCC in field goal percentage last season.

Reasons to be depressed: As good as San Diego was offensively last season, it was just as poor defensively. The Toreros allowed opponents to shoot a league-worst 46.1 percent from the field despite adequately guarding the perimeter. That means it was the interior defense that suffered, and it could suffer again considering Nick Lewis, a 6-10 center, has exhausted his eligibility.

How it'll all shake out: The Toreros won 18 games last season and took Gonzaga to overtime in the WCC Tournament. A similar season is possible, but a postseason berth remains unlikely.

5. Saint Mary's

Reasons to be excited: Brett Collins, Diamon Simpson and Ian O'Leary return, giving the Gaels plenty of experience. They were three of Saint Mary's top five scorers last season, averaging a combined 26.7 points.

Reasons to be depressed: Daniel Kickert was a three-time all-WCC performer, one who averaged 16.7 points and 5.6 boards last season. That he's gone means the Gaels are down a 6-10 post player who can score and rebound, and it's never good to be down one of those.

How it'll all shake out: The Gaels will be adequate, but they're probably a year away from doing damage. Barring an unexpected departure, Saint Mary's will return every starter in 2007-08, and that's when the top of the league should be concerned.

6. Santa Clara

Reasons to be excited: Point guard Brody Angley is back after averaging 10.1 points and 4.9 assists as a sophomore. John Bryant, a 6-11 center, also returns. He averaged 6.2 rebounds in just 17.1 minutes last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Though there are still options in the frontcourt, the loss of Travis Niesen will hurt. He averaged 18.9 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season, and the odds of replacing that are somewhere between improbable and impossible.

How it'll all shake out: The Broncos didn't win too many with Niesen. There's no reason to think they'll win a lot without him.

7. Pepperdine

Reasons to be excited: The Waves' new coach, Vance Walberg, has been successful at the high school and junior college levels playing the up-tempo brand of basketball he created. Through two exhibitions, the style has been hard to miss. Pepperdine averaged 106.5 points and 27.5 3-point attempts in a pair of wins, meaning this is going to be a fun team to watch.

Reasons to be depressed: The problem with Walberg's system right now is that he inherited a group of players who aren't necessarily best-suited to run and shoot. In other words, the transition could prove rough because Paul Westphal didn't leave a roster of athletes behind, and it doesn't help that Michael Gerrity, who averaged 14.1 points in 2005-06, is out for two weeks with an injured foot.

How it'll all shake out: Because Walberg is used to winning, this could be a frustrating season. But it's pretty clear he's going to get things turned around quickly, evidence being that the Waves signed five prospects this week, including Tyrone Shelley, a 6-7 wing rated as the 43rd-best prospect in the nation by Scout.com. Trust me on this. Pepperdine will be good again soon, and by soon I mean within a couple of seasons.

8. Portland

Reasons to be excited: Former Stanford assistant Eric Reveno has taken over, a move that could inject some life into the program. Making the transition smoother is that Darren Cooper, the leading scorer in 2005-06, was granted a medical hardship that gives him one more year of college.

Reasons to be depressed: It's nice to have Cooper back, but it would be nicer if he was healthy. The 6-3 guard had offseason knee surgery, and he only played three minutes in Portland's exhibition.

How it'll all shake out: With Cooper healthy, this team will still struggle to win. With him hobbling, it's even worse until Reveno can get his own players in the program and start fresh.