Florida State opens up as 7-point favorite vs. Auburn

By Jerry Hinnen | College Football Writer

Vegas feels this will Gabe Wright and Auburn's last celebration of the season. (USATSI)
Vegas feels this will Gabe Wright and Auburn's last celebration of the season. (USATSI)
The BCS Championship Game matchup between Florida State and Auburn won't be officially official until later Sunday night. But naturally, that doesn't mean you can't wager on Seminoles vs. Tigers already.

And for all the SEC's BCS success -- the conference has never lost a BCS Championship Game to a team from another league, going a collective 8-0 -- it's the ACC champion that will enter as a heavy favorite. Per R.J. Bell of pregame.com, the Las Vegas Hilton opened Florida State as a full seven-point favorite over Auburn.

And that line seems likely to shift even further in the Seminoles' direction. Bell reported that one offshore oddsmaker had already moved the line all the way to Florida State -9.5, with other offshore books currently listing the game at either Seminoles -8 or -8.5.

Auburn supporters will, of course, find plenty of reason to believe their team is undervalued here; in addition to the SEC's spectacular BCS track record, the Tigers have played a quantifiably more difficult schedule than Florida State, have the accompanying better wins, and have gone a perfect 5-0 against the spread as an underdog this season with (you've figured this part out already) four straight-up victories.

But the numbers that will loom larger where oddsmakers are concerned are 42.3 and 16.2 -- the 'Noles and Tigers' respective average margin of victory. The Tigers may have gone 12-1 against one of the most difficult schedules in the country, but they needed six victories by eight points or fewer to manage it, while the Seminoles didn't win any of their 13 games by fewer than two touchdowns.

That will suggest to Vegas -- and the power rankings of number-crunchers like Jeff Sagarin, whose Predictor ratings have FSU at No. 1 and Auburn No. 11 -- that whatever the difference in strength-of-schedule, the 'Noles are the clearcut superior team.

While the college football world will have to wait until January to discover if that's the case, it's enough to place your best right now.

 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre

College Football Video

Latest

Most Popular

CBSSports.com Shop