Flashback scenario? Elite gaggle at top could gag BCS again

It's beginning to look a lot like 2003. That is not necessarily good news for Oklahoma, LSU, USC or the BCS.

You remember the halcyon days of '03 don't you? That was the year the Sooners, Tigers and Trojans finished 1-2-3 in the BCS. Each had one loss. Each made claims to play for the national championship.

Will LSU have to share another championship this year, like Nick Saban's squad in 2003? (Getty Images)

Only two did. Whether they were the right two is still a point of discussion. LSU and USC became the first split national champs of the BCS era.

The math, as you may recall, didn't work. Three one-loss teams don't fit into two championship berths.

The BCS blew up again. Based largely on strength of schedule, USC, No. 1 in both human polls that year, was left out of the BCS title game. Oklahoma lost the Big 12 title game and remained No. 1 in the BCS, playing No. 2 LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

OK, it's only mid-September, but it's never too early to stir up the angst, especially with the same three teams hovering near the top. To me, Oklahoma, LSU and USC seem to be the three strongest teams in the country, with Florida coming on strong.

Project ahead to December and the top three could look a lot like it did in 2003. Oh, and guess what? The same problems could still apply.

•  The BCS commissioners never have made it mandatory that a team playing in the championship game must win its conference. That means an Oklahoma, LSU or Florida could lose its conference title game and still, conceivably, end up playing for it all. Or worse, not even win its division (see: Nebraska, 2001)

•  It's still possible for the No. 1 team in both polls to be left out of the title game. The schedule strength component that doomed USC in '03 has been dropped. So has the quality win component. The BCS has since dropped AP in favor of the Harris Poll. It also assigns a percentage of poll points instead of averaging poll standing, but that doesn't remove the bug from the machine.

"They have never fixed any problem that has happened before," BCS guru and CSTV analyst Jerry Palm said. "Nothing that has gone -- quote -- 'wrong' before has been fixed. Everything that has gone wrong before could happen again." That's both disturbing and thrilling with four teams so close together. LSU fans still bombard media with protests that its school should not have had to share the '03 title with USC. The Trojans are still the team of the decade, in the middle of a dynasty that has included back-to-back national titles (2003-04). Oklahoma seems absolutely Teflon -- and rebuilt.

"It's going to be hard for USC to be dislodged (if it keeps winning) or an undefeated SEC champion to be dislodged," Palm said. "But the first BCS standings could come out with something goofy, with teams moved around."

Count on it. Until the first BCS standings are released next month, here are the prospects of the teams that have clearly separated themselves from the pack early in the season. The rankings are based on BCS components available at this time (coaches poll and three of the six computers).

1. LSU: It's becoming clear that the Tigers can run the table in the SEC. The Oct. 6 showdown with Florida is mitigated by the likelihood that the winner will likely have to beat the loser again in the SEC title game.