Here we go again.
Nothing looks like it did three weeks ago. East Carolina is a contender, and not just for the Conference USA title. The preseason No. 1 (Georgia) is undefeated -- and has dropped to No. 3. If you ranked the three toughest conferences top to bottom right now you'd have to go SEC, Big 12 and Mountain West?
The shuffle has hit almost every conference to the point where preseason perceptions have turned into Week 4 reconsideration. They're called dark horses for a reason. Here's a breakdown of who they are and why they should be considered.
SEC
The favorites: Georgia-Florida
The dark horse: Calm down, T-town. It's LSU. It's hard to call the defending national champions a dark horse but in the stacked SEC not everyone can finish first. The Tigers are loaded at every position except quarterback. Judging from early returns, it's not going to matter. Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch is more than capable. Charles Scott is averaging 11.4 yards per rush. It's a mini-dark horse playoff in the SEC this week with LSU going to Auburn and Alabama traveling to Arkansas. Everyone north of Tuscaloosa is asking how good is the Tide?
Big 12
The favorites: Oklahoma-Missouri
The dark horse: Nebraska. The Huskers are playing air but get their first real test Sept. 27 against Virginia Tech. It's clear that coach Bo Pelini is lining things up for Oct. 4 when No. 5 Missouri visits. If the Huskers can take down the Tigers -- Missouri has won three of the last five -- it might be time to reassess the North.
If you're wondering about Texas, the 'Horns are never an underdog at anything, ever.
Big East
The favorite: West Virginia
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| The Bulls have the arguably the Big East's best QB. (Getty Images) |
Big Ten
The favorite: Ohio State
The dark horse: Wisconsin. It's simple math. Ohio State lost Beanie Wells. Bret Bielema just got back linebacker Jonathan Casillas and All-American tight end Travis Beckum. The Badgers and Buckeyes meet on Oct. 4 in Madison. Hey, look who's ranked higher in the polls. (No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 13 Ohio State)
The league seems to be wide open now that Ohio State has shown all its flaws. Penn State looks legitimate and might have the league's best quarterback right now (Daryll Clark). Illinois seems to have stabilized since the Missouri loss but has to go to Penn State on Sept. 27.
Pac-10
The favorite: USC
The dark horse: Can we say none? The national consensus held that Oregon (3-0) was a dark horse before it lost its third starting quarterback since last November. The Ducks showed some guts rallying from 17 down at Purdue to win in overtime. We were introduced to LeGarrette Blount who ran for two touchdowns.
The key is to get Justin Roper back from a knee injury in time for the USC game. Roper is out two to four weeks. The Ducks go to USC in 18 days.
Arizona State was the one until that clunker against UNLV. Now it has Georgia coming in. Arizona could have been the one had it not tanked against New Mexico. Cal is still hitchhiking back from Maryland.
ACC
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| We'll see where Jim Grobe's team is Oct. 9 vs. Clemson. (US Presswire) |
The dark horse: Wake Forest, if it can really be called one. Jim Grobe looks like he can Jet Sweep his way to a second conference title in three years. Pushover Florida State is up on Saturday. Pushover? Wake has beaten FSU in consecutive games for the first time.
The Seminoles basically open the season after two scrimmages against I-AA opponents. You've got to like Wake already having beaten live human entities (Baylor, Ole Miss). It's not a great team and it can't sneak up on opponents anymore, but why not Wake in the ACC? For the Deacons it's all about an Oct. 9 home game against Clemson.
The others
• Using the European soccer model, the worst BCS conference should be relegated and replaced by the Mountain West. The conference is coming off one of the best weeks in its history. BYU and Utah are ranked. The Cougars have the nation's longest winning streak (13) after having annihilated UCLA. Four of the nine teams are undefeated. The league is 5-0 against the Pac-10.
BYU remains the favorite but not all its opponents are going to roll over like UCLA. The Cougars have to play three other Mountain West undefeated teams on the road -- TCU, Oct. 16; Air Force, Nov. 15 and Utah, Nov. 22 ...
• Ball State, 3-0, is the MAC's only undefeated team. Don't count out two-time defending champion Central Michigan. The Chips, 2-1, won an early-season showdown with Ohio last week. Temple and Buffalo are two of the more interesting stories in the MAC. Buffalo beat the Owls on a Hail Mary pass and is off to a 2-1 start for the first time since moving up to I-A in 1999 ...
• Count Maryland (Middle Tennessee) and Texas A&M (Arkansas State) among those embarrassed by Sun Belt schools. Favorite Florida Atlantic is 1-2 in its attempt to join a BCS conference, or so it seems. The Owls have played Texas, Michigan State and go to Minnesota this week. Arkansas State, 2-1, seems to have entered the race after beating the Aggies. Troy, 2-0, is undefeated only because of the LSU postponement. The goose egg won't last long. The Trojans travel to Ohio State and Oklahoma State the next two weeks ...
• East Carolina is everyone's Conference USA favorite to reach the BCS. The Pirates had better pay attention. They almost got picked off by Tulane, before traveling this week to N.C. State. Don't count out Central Florida (East Division) and Tulsa (West), last year's championship game participants and this year's favorites. East Carolina changed all that.
It took overtime for South Florida to beat Central Florida. Tulsa is one of only three teams not to commit a turnover and has the nation's top-rated passer, David Johnson ...
• Fresno State still has the WAC title to shoot for after losing to Wisconsin in the biggest Bulldogs game in history. It's going to be hard to get back in the BCS picture. Pat Hill's two toughest games are against unranked teams -- UCLA and Boise State. Boise, 2-0, is the league's last undefeated team. Only USC (61) has more wins since 2003 than the Broncos (58).
For the rest of the national notes see Dennis Dodd's blog Dodds and Ends
