They're here way too early.
Alabama No. 1? Nick Saban is an accomplished coach but he's not St. Nick, patron saint of the SEC West. The guy lays hands on both of his lines and suddenly they're able to move trucks. A couple of novenas are said and John Parker Wilson is Joe Willie Namath. Alabama has become the grim reaper of the coaching profession. Play Saban and you run the risk of getting fired. Ask Tommy Bowden and Phil Fulmer.
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| Julio Jones and the Crimson Tide are growing up fast. (Getty Images) |
Check out this summary from Phil Steele's College Football Preview:
They do have just 13 returning starters which ranks in the bottom half of the league, and have to play league powers Georgia, Tennessee and LSU all on the road. 'Bama will top last year's 7-win total but is probably a year away from an SEC West title.
The point is, if you believed that Alabama is going to play for the national championship, then God bless you. That's all it is, a belief. I'm not singling 'Bama out, just saying that we live in a different era. Alabama is the fifth No. 1 team this season. There were six, total, from 2002-06 in the AP poll.
Your best year-round argument, dear 'Bama fan, is also the biggest argument against your team:
The SEC is the best conference.
There are still games left against LSU, Auburn and (probably) Florida. Your best chance might be to pull an Oklahoma. OU was so entrenched at No. 1 in the BCS in 2003 that a little thing like a loss in the Big 12 title game didn't matter. The Sooners stayed at No. 1.
Here's a look at the BCS contenders' chances with a month left in the season:
The skinny: The championship is basically down to eight teams -- the Big 12 (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State), the SEC (Florida, Alabama), USC and Penn State.
You can draw the line for title contenders after No. 9 Oklahoma State. No. 8 Utah can get to a BCS bowl but is highly unlikely to get to the BCS Championship Game.
Take the Big 12 against the field: To the point that two of the conference's schools could be playing each other for the national championship.
I've written about a Texas-Oklahoma rematch which is still possible. But you have to like the conference's chances to get one team in when half of the contending field is from the Big 12.
The top two: Good news for Alabama and Texas Tech. I looked back 10 years at the previous BCS standings during the first week of November; in nine of the 10 years of the BCS' existence, the eventual national champion was either first or second in early November. At least one team in the top two each year went on to play in the national championship game. It's pretty simple for here on in. Win the rest of its games and Alabama is playing for its first national championship in 16 years. For Texas Tech, it would be a first.
The Penn State question: It doesn't look like an undefeated Penn State can be jumped by a one-loss team.
That's the good news for the No. 3 Nittany Lions. The bad: The Fighting Hip Replacements need to keep winning and they need help. The schedule is fairly easy with games left against Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State.
Not so easy: Counting on Alabama or Texas Tech to lose.
Although Penn State is only .0086 behind No. 2 Tech, the Red Raiders' schedule strength is going to get stronger down the stretch.
In the best position outside the top three: It has to be No. 4 Texas and No. 5 Florida. For now, think of them as one entity. Both will move within spitting distance of the title game if one of the three unbeatens lose. They will need losses by two of three, though, to get into the top two.
Despite losing this late in the season, Texas slipped only three spots to fourth. The computers loved the 'Horns a whole lot more than the human polls. Florida is only a hiccup behind Texas.
Both teams play conference championship games which will boost their profiles should the unblemished stumble.
In the worst position: It has to be USC.
The Trojans are a stunning 10th this week in the computers, seventh overall in the BCS. The loss to Oregon State and the weakness of the Pac-10 have had a hangover effect.
They only ranked team they play is No. 21 Cal this weekend and play no teams ranked above them. Like a certain senior citizen, their candidacy seems to be over.
The outsiders: There are still an amazing five teams in contention among the non-BCS schools, starting on the low end with No. 17 Ball State.
There is an elimination match Thursday when No. 12 TCU goes to No. 8 Utah. I think the Horned Frogs are the best of the non-BCS contenders. Their problem is that they've already lost to powerful Oklahoma (no disgrace) and have no margin for error.
If TCU wins there still will be a battle with No. 10 Boise State. It will be interesting to see if Thursday's winner, both with stronger schedules, can hold off Boise.
Don't worry about there being a non-BCS qualifier at this point. The qualification standard is top 12 unless a BCS conference winner finishes below it. Then a non-BCS qualifier only has to finish in the top 16.
The highest ranked ACC team is No. 19 North Carolina. West Virginia is No. 25. In other words, Ball State still has hope.
The spoilers: For Penn State, they're Iowa and Michigan State.
Suddenly, the road doesn't look so smooth. Iowa is improved and Michigan State is contending for a Jan. 1 bowl. Both teams have the type of back (Michigan State's Javon Ringer and Iowa's Shonn Greene) who could play keep-away with Galen Hall's offense.
We'll see what LSU has left this week in terms of pride and talent. You might have heard that its former coach comes to town. The suspicion is that the Tigers are about to go from national champion to the Cotton Bowl.
Florida State could wreck Florida's season on Nov. 29 in Tallahassee.
The Big 12 South is its own spoiler. Oklahoma plays Texas Tech, which this week must play Oklahoma State. Texas still gets to the Big 12 title game if it beats Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M. Its spoiler could be Missouri in the conference championship game.
