Texas Tech's win over No. 1 Texas validates the Red Raiders as a leading football power and Mike Leach as one of the premier coaches in college football.
Does that sound strange? Let's put aside our provincial points of view for a moment. Leach is a winner. He has taken the Red Raiders to eight consecutive bowls. Still, a lot of coaches I've spoken with recently think of Leach's wide-open offense as a "system" approach. That's another way of saying it doesn't have the muster to get to the top.
Leach's offense has always employed receivers who are highly productive despite being smaller -- at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Michael Crabtree is the exception -- and quarterbacks who put up gaudy numbers but whose pro careers are but blips on the radar. But Graham Harrell is a premier thrower, period. The scouts I speak with affirm his promise as a pro. It's no surprise that Harrell is on the short list for the Heisman, which does wonders for any program.
The difference in Leach's standing today is the wide use of any number of versions of the spread, which makes yesterday's oddball today's rage. Big 12 teams are, in effect, playing on Leach's terms when the Big 12 is equal to -- or close to -- the SEC's strength, because both have talent parity.
Coaches are faced with high risk, high reward when the margins of winning and losing are razor thin. Texas is a perfect example. In the previous four weeks Texas had beaten then-No. 1 OU, No. 11 Mizzou and No. 7 Oklahoma State. Had Texas defeated Texas Tech it would have been only the second team in history to beat a top 12 team four weeks in a row. Notre Dame did it in 1943. The 'Horns came up one second short.
Now, Tech is facing the same meat grinder. It has Oklahoma State, rated ninth in the BCS standings; No. 6 Oklahoma on the road; and Baylor, which is showing signs of life.
I don't like the odds of a Texas Tech sweep, especially against Oklahoma at home, where Bob Stoops is 58–2. But you must acknowledge that Oklahoma's defense is showing some disturbing signs of weakness of late, and that gives Tech a better than 50-50 chance of pulling off an upset.
The Red Raiders are second to No. 1 Alabama in the polls and the BCS. The Tide are undefeated but face a tough game against LSU in Baton Rouge. (And if recent history matters, Alabama managed just 20 yards rushing in last year's loss in Tuscaloosa.) 'Bama then has Mississippi State and Auburn.
The Tide are favored this weekend in part because LSU was beaten soundly by Georgia and Florida. The Tigers' young secondary couldn't handle the Georgia and Florida quarterbacks, but match up better against a less-explosive Tide. Factor in Les Miles' coaching ability, particularly when he has two weeks to prepare, and we might be in for another close call.
Consider that Alabama defeated Ole Miss and Kentucky by a combined seven points and there is cause for optimism for Tigers fan. Yes, even though neither one of their quarterbacks is ready to win a game on his own. They both must play with a lead, and Charles Scott must deliver another 100-yard rushing performance in order for offensive coordinator Gary Crowton to be at his best.
Florida's convincing win over Georgia jumped the Gators from eighth to fifth in the BCS, behind Texas and one spot ahead of Oklahoma. The 'Horns have Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M the next three weeks. The Gators will win the SEC East if they beat Vandy this week. Florida also still has to play South Carolina and Florida State. In between, the Citadel comes to the Swamp to collect a good payday and nothing else.
Right now Florida could be the best team in the country. Since the loss to Ole Miss the Gators have scored 201 points in their last five games.
A Florida-Alabama conference battle would likely pit the two teams with the highest BCS rankings in the SEC Championship Game. If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Florida beats Alabama in Atlanta, the Gators could jump Texas -- likely to win the Big 12 conference -- and play in the BCS title game.
Penn State, ranked third, is on track to finish 12-0. The Nittany Lions' key game is against 18th-ranked Michigan State. They shouldn't have a difficult time with Iowa or Indiana.
Computer readouts are responsible for PSU's drop from second to third, even though the Nittany Lions had a bye. While strength of schedule isn't a BCS component, all six computers have a strength-of-schedule factor in their rankings. The Lions are up against the Big Ten's baggage as a weak conference and getting embarrassed in the last two title games and last year's Rose Bowl.
Penn State is an excellent team but it might take a vote of confidence for Joe Paterno by the coaches to put the Lions in Miami.
Pete Carroll recently said he's facing a Catch-22. He gets the top recruiting classes in a weak conference. The more he wins, the less the computers like him. Tacking on more than 50 points over the likes of Washington and Washington State ended up dropping the Trojans one place in the rankings.
Carroll has a point, but, despite all that talent, it is Oregon State which controls its own destiny at this late stage, not USC. (That won't last long). The men of Troy lost to Oregon State and won by only seven against Arizona.
Still, USC will always be in the mix. The Trojans are in a select group of teams that needs to prove they don't belong, rather than the other way around.
Meanwhile teams that need consideration in the rankings are looking for style points. They're taking a huge risk by exposing key players to injury.
Teams outside the BCS also suffer from exposure lag. They're usually ranked low in preseason polls and have a higher hill to climb. Utah, at eighth, is the top team outside the BCS circle of six conferences. A non-BCS team is guaranteed a spot if it finishes in the top 12 or if it's ranked in the top 16 and higher than that of conference champion that has an automatic bid. Right now the highest-ranked ACC team is North Carolina at 19th and the top Big East team West Virginia is 25th.
Other teams out of the privileged six are 10th-ranked Boise State, 12th-ranked TCU, BYU and Ball State. If TCU beats Utah on Thursday night then the Horned Frogs are likely to jump Boise State in the BCS standings.
What's going on here? It's November Madness. Maybe it's something in the water. Look at last year, sports fans. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 1, the BCS No. 1 team went 2-3, and the BCS No. 2 team went 1-4 the rest of the regular season. Three-quarters of those seven losses were to teams that were unranked, and more than half were at home.
Nothing comes easy as BCS pressure begins to mount. It's a good story so let's run with it.
