As Rose Bowl looms, Oregon State upset of USC gets bigger and bigger

This crazy thing in Corvallis now is closer to reality than curiosity.

Mike Riley's Beavers have the upper hand on USC thanks to their head-to-head win. (US Presswire)

Oregon State won again Saturday, bringing the school within two games of its first Rose Bowl berth in 44 years. The program on which the Pac-10 used to wipe its feet could break USC's death grip on the conference.

As the only team to beat the Trojans, Oregon State controls the Pac-10. It has been that way for a while. That game is the difference between the Beavers going to Pasadena and USC heading to the Holiday Bowl. Check the top of the BCS standings. That loss stands as the single-most damaging defeat this season.

Texas losing to Texas Tech? The Red Raiders were a top 10 team playing at home.

Florida losing to Ole Miss? Even if it loses to Florida State in two weeks, the Gators are still guaranteed a shot at their second SEC title in three seasons.

Oklahoma losing to Texas? The Red River Rivalry is a game that goes either way in any given year. Plus, the Sooners aren't out of it. Win Saturday against Texas Tech and they're still in the Big 12/national championship hunt.

Oregon State beating USC reverberates around the country two months later. Because of the loss, the Trojans (No. 6 in the BCS) are all but out of the national championship race. They must rely on Arizona or Oregon to beat Oregon State in the closing weeks to open the doors to the Rose Bowl.

Those two teams are all that stand between the Beavers and Pasadena.

This is the program that was the West Coast version of the old Kansas State: beyond bad, with no hope for a quick turnaround. But when coach Mike Riley arrived in 1997, it was a marriage made in Corvallis. In the 25 years previous to his arrival, Oregon State had never won more than four games. Sometimes your program sucks for a quarter of a century. Sometimes everything just clicks.

There might not be a better coach in the country than Riley at assessing talent. Five-star recruits simply do not come to Oregon State.

"Our players and coaches persevered," Riley said Saturday. "They don't blink. We should have learned enough in our time here to keep practicing, stay with it. Players want concrete evidence that it's going to be better. There is no magic to it." Yes, there is. The Beavers entered the AP poll a week ago. At 7-3, they are tied for the worst record of any ranked team. If they do make it to Pasadena, they would likely face Penn State in a rematch. The Nittany Lions won by 31 on Sept. 6 in State College. Only the delusional thought Oregon State could make it back to this point.

It seems we're still not over the fact Riley laid the recruiting groundwork for Dennis Erickson's 2000 team that trounced Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. We still can't get our minds around the Beavs winning at least eight games in four of the past six seasons.

Nine months ago we couldn't spell Jacquizz Rodgers. Now the 5-foot-7 freshman sensation is putting up All-America numbers. Every week that goes by makes Sept. 25 look more legitimate. Oregon State's 27-21 win over the Trojans wasn't a fluke. It was a precursor. That night the Beavers grabbed control of the Pac-10 and haven't let go.

The Beavers started 0-2 but have won seven of their past eight, including the past five in a row. While everyone assumes USC is going to take its rightful spot in the Rose Bowl, Oregon State has kept on winning.

After Saturday's 34-21 victory over Cal, Riley wouldn't let himself dream the dream.

"Why start thinking about something down the road that isn't a for sure at all? I don't want them to get uptight about it," he said.

The only ones uptight should be the Trojans.

Ranking the losses

The damage done to the five one-loss teams at the top of the BCS standings.

1. Oregon State over USC: Seven weeks later the Trojans still haven't recovered. They dropped from No. 1 to No. 9 in the next week's AP poll. At No. 6 in the BCS, it is still virtually impossible for USC to get back into the BCS title game.

2. Iowa 24-23 over Penn State on Nov. 8: What's the old adage, if you're going to lose, lose early? No. 2 Penn State lost late, and the polls reacted with a vengeance. The Lions dropped from third to eighth in the BCS.

3. Texas Tech 39-33 over Texas on Nov. 1: On the last offensive play of the game, Graham Harrell hit Michael Crabtree with what remains the signature play of the 2008 season. Texas dropped from No. 1 to No. 4 in the BCS and currently resides at No. 3, one spot behind Tech and needing help.

4. Texas 45-35 over Oklahoma on Oct. 11: The No. 1 Sooners dropped to No. 4 in the AP poll. At No. 5 in the BCS on Sunday, they need help but perhaps less than Texas if they are able to beat Texas Tech on Saturday.

5. Mississippi 31-30 over Florida on September 27: Like Penn State and USC, the Gators lost to an unranked team. The difference is that was ages ago. Since then Florida has outscored its opponents 299-63, clinched the SEC East and will have a do-or-die shot at a national championship berth against Alabama in the SEC title game.