The country is in a recession or worse, but I see no downside for college football. On the other hand, there are a couple of economics-related developments that are affecting the game.
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| With Auburn 5-6, Tommy Tuberville is on thin ice. (AP) |
Last year Matt Ryan signed a six-year, $72 million contract with about $30 million guaranteed. It was close to the contract of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is right. Big money needs to reward performance, not draftees who haven't played a down. A cap on salaries and bonuses likely goes into effect in 2010.
A predictable response to this development will be an exodus of top college players declaring for the draft before the well runs drier. The pros like Sam Bradford's presence. Despite the loss in Lubbock, Texas, Graham Harrell is still regarded highly by a number of NFL scouts. Matt Stafford is a well-thought-of pro prospect. I could go on talking about the stellar crop of this year's quarterbacks.
Then there's Percy Harvin, Knowshon Moreno, Michael Crabtree and other skill position players. Each has made a significant impact on their college programs. When key players like these go, for whatever reasons, it's the difference between winning and losing.
Michigan lost eight games this year. Why? The Wolverines have a new coach and staff. They don't have the skill players to run Rich Rodriguez's spread offense. They're a Big Ten style football team in transition, and their record reflects that fact.
When Ryan Perriloux was tossed, LSU had to rely on freshman Jarrett Lee when sophomore Andrew Hatch was injured. The Tigers have lost four games, three at Death Valley. When last year's national champions get hammered by Florida and Ole Miss, that's one thing. But to fall behind by 28 against Troy of the Sunbelt Conference before pulling it out late is quite another. The fans headed for the hills, and who can blame them?
Today it's a perfect storm waiting to happen. Things come to a head seemingly overnight. Phil Fulmer, who just last summer received a multiyear extension at Tennessee, was fired after 14 seasons and an outstanding win-loss record.
Tommy Tuberville suddenly is on thin ice at Auburn, even though the Tigers have beaten the Tide six years in a row. They're currently 5-6, and part of Tommy's problem is Nick Saban's success at Alabama. It comes down to "What have you done for me lately?"
Kansas State rehired Bill Snyder to get back to where he left off. It will be tough because expectations are so high. Virtually every time a program goes sour, so does fan support and recruiting. There's no mystery here, sports fans. You can have the best coaches and schemes, but those kids on the field make everyone look good. The NFL's imminent salary cap for rookies will only drive home the point.
The other issue is that the money that's rolling in from media deals is directly proportional to success on the field. The $2.25 billion deal between the SEC and ESPN gives the network television rights through 2025. Throw in another $55 million from CBS, and it adds up to just under a quarter million dollars a year or about $17 million for each university. The big winners in these deals are the six BCS conferences.
Look at it this way: The NFL's approach is socialistic, revenue sharing to create competitive parity. The BCS is more Hegelian, pragmatic -- the survival of the fittest. The way things are done, the fittest get even fitter. More money gives BCS universities the upper hand to create winning programs. The 11 highest football revenues in 2006-07 were Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, LSU, Iowa and Penn State. With a few exceptions, such as OU, the universities that produce the highest revenues turn out to be the ones usually contending for the national championship, despite the breakthroughs of the Utahs and Boise States.
Seen another way, total media revenue in 2006-'07 amounted to just over $2.3 billion, and roughly $1.8 billion went to BCS schools.
