Weekend Watch List: One underdog will bite, guaranteed

In our nice, orderly world it would be convenient if this weekend went with the chalk.

You know, all the favorites winning all these rivalry games. We'd have a quasi-tidy wrap-up to the season.

• Oklahoma most likely would be in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. Much to the hoots and howls of Texas.

• No. 1 Alabama would take an undefeated record into the SEC Championship Game.

• Florida would win as well, setting up the biggest SEC title game in history and one of the conference's biggest games ever.

• Oregon State would beat Oregon in the Civil War, assuring a Rose Bowl rematch with Penn State.

Bill Curry knows better. Something weird is going to happen this weekend, in at least one of those four games, and maybe more. The Georgia State coach described how an underdog in a rivalry game bows up and shocks the world.

"Maybe they're ranked No. 1 and we're ranked number last. It doesn't matter," said Curry, the venerable conscience of college football. "We're going to knock their teeth out. People make jokes, you can throw the records out the window. ... Some crazy bounces happen because kids get in that mode and play beyond themselves. You say, 'We're going to remember this the rest of our lives.'"

Curry is so knowledgeable, he would be better off as Secretary of Health and Human Services or something like that. He chose to get back into coaching at Georgia State, which will launch its program in 2010. But you probably know him better as a former player under Vince Lombardi and the coach at Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia Tech.

All three of his former schools have rivalry games Saturday. The four scenarios noted above are at the top of everyone's watch list, but there is something about every rivalry, no matter what the records are. Ask Washington State how it feels about last week's overtime win against Washington. Have we forgotten Pittsburgh's trip to West Virginia last season?

Now ask Auburn, Florida State, Oklahoma State and Oregon if they have a chance against their rivals. Combined, they are 40½-point underdogs. Huge rewards await the favorites. That's the beauty of the upset.

"If you are watching a boxing match and you're watching Evander Holyfield, you say, 'Wow that guy has been someplace tough,'" Curry said. "Then you walk out the door and your next-door neighbor starts pushing you around, you're not intimidated."

That's the mindset. WWL will stake its reputation -- such as it is -- that at least one of the big four above will go down. If not all of them. Here's a case for the underdog in each game.

No. 3 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State: How brutal is the Bedlam Series? Bob Stoops is 60-2 at home in his 10 seasons. One of those losses was to an Oklahoma State team that finished 4-7 in 2001.

This Cowboys team is much better. The doubt here is OU being able to get up emotionally two weeks in a row with its season on the line. The hate will be palpable in Boone Pickens Stadium. Expect Mike Gundy to pound the Big 12's best tailback, Kendall Hunter, who will have an All-America berth on the line.

All five of the previous mega-matchups in the Big 12 have gone to the home team this season. Advantage Oklahoma State?

Auburn at No. 1 Alabama: 'Bama has been waiting for this day for seven years. Auburn has won six in a row in the Iron Bowl, but comes in injured and ridiculed. Recipe for destruction, right?

This is the nothing-to-lose scenario. The Tigers obviously have the defense to hang with the Tide. All they need are some breaks, because Tommy Tuberville is going to use every gadget play in his playbook to move the ball.

No. 2 Florida at No. 23 Florida State: The 'Noles defense can run with Florida's offense. FSU needs a career game from Christian Ponder. There's plenty to play for. If Maryland beats Boston College, then FSU wins the ACC Atlantic.

Florida State wants to prove it is back. A win here and WWL will order a limo and roll out the red carpet to welcome it back.

No. 19 Oregon at No. 17 Oregon State: It looks like Jacquizz Rodgers will not be around to power the Beavers to the Rose Bowl. You can already feel the momentum shifting. In the Civil War the home team usually wins. Will Quizz's brother James be able to pick up the slack?

Scouting the Nation

BCS mathletes: The popular thinking is that if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, the Sooners will pass Texas in the BCS standings and play for the Big 12 championship against Missouri.

This is how it breaks down: In the Harris poll, Texas theoretically needs 12 voters to change their minds and vote the 'Horns above Oklahoma. (OU leads Texas by 21 points, 2,598-2,577 in the Harris).

In the coaches poll, Oklahoma has a 42-point lead. If 22 voters theoretically ranked Texas ahead of Oklahoma this week, that might be enough.

None of that considers the computers, where Texas has a significant lead. Oklahoma should make up ground because it plays a stronger opponent.

If Oklahoma loses, Texas Tech is the South Division champion (if it beats Baylor) and keeps its slim hopes alive for a national championship berth.

Texas' absolute best chance of staying alive in the national championship picture seems to be Missouri beating either Oklahoma or Tech in Kansas City. The 'Horns still could get in without playing in the Big 12 title game.

Will they or won't they ... fire Charlie Weis?

The tom-toms have been beating all week. Notre Dame pride is wounded. If USC blows out the Irish on Saturday night, who knows what will happen? But here's why it could happen:

1) USC's slim BCS hopes hinge on impressing the voters. Expect a blowout of the highest order. In Tyrone Willingham's last game, Pete Carroll blatantly ran up the score mercilessly.

2) It's still a bitter rivalry despite the fact that USC has won six in a row. Carroll does bump into Notre Dame on the recruiting trail from time to time and wants to remind recruits who is in charge.

3) Notre Dame might need to win to save Weis' job. A noble accomplishment but, on the field, the Irish can't match up. They are disoriented, beaten and maybe disinterested. You don't get the Syracuse loss out of your craw in one week.

4) A story in the Chicago Tribune seemingly makes it easier to get rid of Weis. It seems that the coach's reported $20 million buyout is significantly less.

The over/under on Butch Davis' name appearing in a list of candidates? One week.

Heisman watch: It's still wide open, but here's a short list:

• Sam Bradford, Oklahoma: Needs big games against Oklahoma State and Missouri.
• Graham Harrell, Texas Tech: Will inflated numbers against Baylor impress the voters late?
• Colt McCoy, Texas: Colt was Colt, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns in basically three quarters of work.
• Tim Tebow, Florida: Don't count out a repeat. Huge games against Florida State and Alabama could sway voters.
• Nate Davis, Ball State: Deserves a trip to New York for leading the Cardinals to an undefeated season. Davis might be the first quarterback taken in the draft.

Quit your whining Everybody is bitching about how the BCS forces teams to run up scores. Exactly how is that different from the old bowl system?

OK, everybody ready? Deep breath: Four teams are still alive in the ACC -- Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, it wins the Coastal Division. If not, Georgia Tech goes. A Maryland win at Boston College sends Florida State to the ACC title game. BC gets the berth and wins the Atlantic Division if it beats the Terps.

Friday walk-through

• The Missouri-Kansas Border War loses a little bit of its national appeal on Saturday, but it will never lose its emotion. Officials are so concerned about last year's parking problems that Kansas fans will be asked to park on the west side of Arrowhead Stadium (closer to Lawrence), Missouri fans will be asked to the east side (closer to Columbia). By the way, it was agreed that the game will continue to be played in Kansas City through 2012. Think of it as a Midwest version of the Florida-Georgia Cocktail Party.

• Amaze your friends with this fact: The six schools with the most victories the past two seasons are Oklahoma, Utah, Ohio State, BYU, Boise State and Missouri. They have 21 each.

• How does Oregon State do it? It sure isn't in recruiting. The seniors on this year's team were part of a class that was ranked 47th (Rivals.com) in 2005. If the Beavers beat Oregon they will go to the Rose Bowl over a USC team that had the nation's No. 1 recruiting class that year. Oh yeah, Oregon State also happened to beat the Trojans two out of the last three years.

• How big is Oregon-Oregon State? To the Pac-10, about $4.5 million. If the Beavers win, USC most likely gets an at-large berth in the Fiesta Bowl (worth the $4.5 million). If Oregon State loses, the Pac-10 gets one BCS spot -- USC in the Rose Bowl.

• The WAC is lobbying the Humanitarian Bowl (in Boise, Idaho) to match unbeatens Boise State and Ball State. Call it a mini-BCS title game.

• Interim coach Dabo Swinney probably needs to lead Clemson over South Carolina to stay in the running to get the permanent job.