SEC: Florida's world, we're just living in it

Now it's getting ridiculous. Or great. Or terrifying. Or however you view Florida now having become a prohibitive favorite to win a third national championship in four years.

It's no longer at the point that the Gators are merely favored. It's a mandate -- by the coaches (53 of 59 first-place votes in their poll); by the media (a record 96.7 percent of the first-place votes in the preseason AP poll).

And we haven't even gotten to the pool of drool surrounding Gator Nation.

The biggest upset of the season will be if Florida doesn't become the third program in history to win three championships in a four-year period. Consider what that means. Since 1950, there has been only one: Nebraska in 1994, '95 and a shared title in '97.

•  Holder: LSU's Chavis working wonders

The teams are linked in funky ways. Both featured stout defenses, legendary coaches and iconic run-pass quarterbacks. Tim Tebow and Tommie Frazier are both from Florida. It took the embarrassment of Florida's January 1996 Fiesta Bowl loss to Nebraska (62-24) to motivate the Gators for their '96 championship run.

"I watch that Fiesta Bowl game two or three times a year," Tebow told the Omaha World-Herald. "In fact, I just watched it a couple weeks ago. At the time, it made me cry because they were beating my team. ...

"Watching that game gets me going. It's an example of how you play the game. I loved all the Nebraska quarterbacks. I loved how they played the game, with their toughness, their leadership.

"Tommie was the best one of them all. He was a great runner, he could throw the ball, he was gifted athletically, tough, great leader. He played the game the way I wanted to play it."

That '98 Nebraska team couldn't keep it going. Tom Osborne retired. A slow decline followed after the 2001 season. These Gators are in their prime. It took Osborne more than 20 years to win his first title. Urban Meyer is going for his third, in his fifth season at the school.

•  SEC: Conference | All-Decade Team | Fantasy | SB Nation | Bleacher Report | Podcast

How many ways, then, are there to define consensus? Danny Sheridan of USA Today declared the Gators 73-point favorites in their opener against Charleston Southern. Even the Gators' failures turn into fairy dust. Look what beating Florida by a point did for Ole Miss in 2008. The Rebels are in the preseason top 10 for the first time since 1970.

Look what losing did for Florida. They didn't do it again in the 2008 season. The words from Tebow's "promise" that followed that Ole Miss game are displayed outside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

With all this going for Florida, why even bother with the regular season? If this were NCAA Football 10 we'd merely sim the season and see what pretender meets the Gators in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 7.

Hand Tebow his second Heisman and get it over with.

Meyer to Notre Dame? Please. You don't go from wearing diamond championship rings to peddling zirconium.

Never mind that only 10 of 59 previous preseason No. 1's have ended the season there. (AP started releasing preseason polls in 1950.) It has happened twice in the past 10 years -- Florida State in 1999 and Southern California in 2004.

All this love is being heaped upon a team that plays in arguably the toughest division in the country, the SEC East, itself a part of undeniably the toughest conference in the country. Since 1980, half the league has either won a national championship (Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Florida) or posted an undefeated season (Auburn).

Sure, Florida's schedule is "favorable." But you have to be fairly dominant when trips to South Carolina and LSU as well as games against Florida State and Georgia define the schedule as favorable.

Beyond the chase for another ring, there is another motive: No Florida team has ever finished undefeated.

Given all that, more than one Gators fan has considered the worst-case scenario: Even with a loss on Oct. 10 at LSU, Florida could finish 12-1 and still be in line for a trip to Pasadena.

The next person who mentions parity gets pushed into game-day traffic on University Avenue. If Florida wins again this year, only seven national champions will have populated the decade. That would tie for the second-fewest ever. (Using the AP poll that started in 1936 and the coaches poll that began in 1950.)

In fact, if one of seven teams wins it all -- Oklahoma, Miami, Ohio State, USC, Texas and LSU have also grabbed titles this decade -- that stat remains the same.

Give me that field, I'll take my chances.

The list of real contenders has shrunk to the point that in the past three years, the winner of the LSU-Florida game has gone on to win the national championship.

Sure, it's an SEC thing -- three championships in a row and four of the past six -- but right now it's more a Florida thing. If the Gators weren't so darn young, again, this team might break the school record for most players drafted. The '77 team sent 10 players to the NFL, but that was a 12-round draft. Nine players were taken in the 2007 (seven-round) draft.

Unfortunately for the nation, only a handful of seniors are starting this season. Tebow and Brandon Spikes are locks for the draft. But the best secondary in the country is populated by three juniors and a sophomore.

Bummer. For the NFL, not for the Gators.

"They're preseason No. 1, but like we learned last year, hype is hype," Georgia defensive tackle Jeff Owens said. "It's not about the preseason."

The Dawgs are the latest cautionary tale to being preseason No. 1. Prognosticators looked at all that talent coming off an 11-win season and made the leading assumption of the decade: The best team in the SEC will be the best team in the country.

Good conclusion. Wrong team. In the end the Dawgs were, at best, the third-best team in the SEC and lost to Georgia Tech.

"Hype can get to you," Owens said.

As mentioned, USC went wire-to-wire in 2004 after finishing No. 1 in AP in 2003. Starting No. 1 in 2005, Pete Carroll cruised all the way to the championship game in the Rose Bowl with perhaps his best team. Then his Trojans got into a shootout with Texas and Vince Young.

That's a small reminder that myriad things can go wrong with the Gators. Twice before Florida has started No. 1 in the AP ('94 and '01). They finished seventh ('94) and third ('01). After winning it all in '06, the Gators started No. 6 and finished No. 13 in 2007. That year they lost the guts of what might be the greatest defense in their history.

This one might be better. The best, some have concluded, since Alabama's mighty D pillaged the landscape in 1992.

Tommy Tuberville will have a front-row seat for it all this season. The deposed Auburn coach is taking the year off (at least) to visit campuses, go to games and drink in the national scene.

Tommy T was an assistant at Miami for three national championship seasons ('87, '89, '91). He was part of four undefeated squads at Texas A&M, Miami and Auburn.

"We won the national championship and had almost everybody coming back," Tuberville said of his Miami teams. "Everybody predicted us to win it. We never repeated. It's so hard to repeat. Everybody gunning for you. You realize it's a major feat to win the SEC, not just the national championship. You've got to win that first, then you get a bonus and go to the next level."

That's the thing. In the SEC, sometimes the national championship is considered a bonus.

It's a conference where a pebble in a shoe can turn into gangrene in a hurry. Alerts went up all over the country last week when Tebow was diagnosed with a sore back. Superman is expected back at practice Monday, which hides a larger truth.

The Gators could probably lose Tebow and still win it all with backup John Brantley. Don't tell that to the breathless media who made a Kilimanjaro out of a speed bump when Tebow wasn't the unanimous choice on the coaches' preseason All-SEC team.

The suspects were eliminated one by one at the SEC media days until Steve Spurrier admitted, sort of, to leaving Tebow off his ballot.

"I apologized to Tim and all Gators that it happened," Spurrier said.

That's what it has to come to for the Florida legend who has carved up teams with his arm, playbook and tongue. All at once something ridiculous, great and a little bit scary.

The most grating Gator of all time apologizing to the greatest Gator of all time.

Offensive Player of the Year

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: One-hundred ten career touchdowns running and passing. Two national championships. A couple of SEC titles. One of the few questions surrounding Tebow is, will Heisman voters have the guts to give him a second trophy? If there were ever a player who deserved it. ...

Defensive Player of the Year

Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: Lane Kiffin didn't take my advice about putting his best athlete at quarterback. A lot. So what's left for the SEC's best defender? He will play quarterback. A little. He will also intimidate quarterbacks, unwary receivers and intercept a lot of passes. After that, he's gone after only three seasons. Book it. First, enjoy it.

Predicted order of finish

West Division

1. Alabama: They dismissed the Sugar Bowl loss to Utah as a fluke in Tuscaloosa long ago. They would rather remember how 'Bama went undefeated in the regular season and was No. 1 for several weeks. Nine returning starters on defense is a good place to start. New quarterback Greg McElroy better find Julio Jones often. There is talk that McElroy just might be better than J.P.W. (John Parker Wilson). A rebuilt offensive line will try to spring Mark Ingram (12 touchdowns as a freshman). The magic of St. Nick gets the nod in this packed division. Must-see game: Oct. 10 at Ole Miss. If 'Bama is going to repeat in the West, then it will have to win in Oxford.

2. LSU: Don't agonize over Jordan Jefferson at quarterback. LSU has won two national championships with, shall we say, less than dynamic quarterbacks. Crazy Les has the SEC's best running back (Charles Scott) and at least one NFL Draft pick (Ciron Black) on the offensive line. After Tebow, Scott might be the SEC's best offensive player. After the co-coordinator thing failed on defense, Miles went out and got the best player on the board -- John Chavis, formerly of Tennessee. Must-see game: Nov. 7 at Alabama. 'Bama ended a five-game losing streak to the Tigers last season.

3. Ole Miss: Until Ole Miss actually does it, the Rebels can't be the pick in the West. I know Jevan Snead might be the league's best pro prospect at quarterback. I know Greg Hardy can beat anyone off the edge. I know Alabama and LSU come to Oxford. I know Houston Nutt is underrated as a coach. I just can't get over the fact that after beating Florida, Ole Miss lost at home to South Carolina. There's a clunker out there somewhere that will keep the Rebels from winning the West. Must-see game: Oct. 10 vs. Alabama. Put up or shut up. Ole Miss has lost 13 of the past 15 to 'Bama.

4. Arkansas: The Hogs have the swine flu. But Bobby Petrino also has himself a quarterback. That's a good start. Ryan Mallett has the best pure arm in the SEC. The problem is defense and special teams. Petrino has never been known for his defensive prowess. The D surrendered more than 31 per game last season. Until that gets corrected, the Hogs won't compete in the West. Petrino wisely hired old buddy John L. Smith to run the special teams. Mallett punted in the spring. Hopefully, that won't have to be the case in the fall. Here's a bold prediction: The Hogs will be the highest-scoring team in the West. Must-see game: Nov. 28 at LSU. The Tigers have been shocked each of the past two seasons.

5. Auburn: Let's see, Tony Franklin was fired because players had a hard time picking up his offense. His replacement at offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn, basically runs the same offense. Let's hope Malzahn is a better communicator because his offense might play faster than anyone in the country. Gene "5-19" Chizik has a lot to prove after coming over from Iowa State. It won't be this year. Must-see game: Sept. 12 vs. Mississippi State. The stink is still left over from last year's 3-2 win in Starkville. For the love of Shug Jordan, please score some points, fellas.

6. Mississippi State: All the buzz is coming from Oxford. For good reason. In the spring, Dan Mullen tried installing his version of the spread with a handful of receivers on the roster. That is changing as recruits hit the practice field. But as his old boss found out, the passing game comes second. Mullen better be able to run the ball first and find some defensive linemen who can come off the edge. Must-see game: Sept. 26 vs. LSU. The Bulldogs have lost eight consecutive conference home openers.

East Division

Poll Who will win the SEC? 59% Florida   6% Georgia   3% South Carolina   12% Alabama   11% LSU   8% Ole Miss   Total Votes: 34623

1. Florida: How's the view from the top? It is Florida's division, conference and national championship to lose. Every starter is back on defense. Every backup is back. A guy named Tebow seems to have locked down the quarterback job. Now the question is, who replaces Percy Harvin? Meyer says he won't do it by committee. Watch for Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and incoming recruit Andre Debose to take their shots. After two titles in three years, the further motivation is Florida's first undefeated season. Must-see game: Oct. 10 at LSU. Since '06 the winner of this game has gone on to win the national championship.

2. Georgia: Strange, but the Bulldogs seem like they're going to be OK. Joe Cox doesn't have to light it up in replacing Matt Stafford, just manage the game. Receiver A.J. Green is a year older and bigger. There are two stars on defense -- defensive tackle Geno Atkins and linebacker Rennie Curran. The last time the expectations were this low, 2005, Georgia won the SEC East. It's going to take a win over Florida to do it, so a division title isn't likely. But 10 wins out of this group isn't out of the question. Must-see game: Sept. 5 at Oklahoma State. We'll know about the Dawgs in a hurry. Two years ago Georgia won this game in Athens 35-14.

3. South Carolina: Steve Spurrier's greatest trait is his honesty. When asked at the SEC spring meetings if quarterback Stephen Garcia was ready to take over, he didn't hesitate. Still needs some work, Spur Dog said. If Spurrier can't get the quarterback thing right, what hope is there for the rest of the Gamecocks? They have faded late in each of the past two seasons. Spurrier has averaged seven wins in his four seasons and has produced just one bowl win. At 64, Spurrier is committed. Is his quarterback, who has had legal problems? Must-see game: Nov. 14 vs. Florida. Might this be Spurrier's last SEC game? Last year, Florida won 56-6. There is little to suggest the 'Cocks will be able to get any closer this year.

4. Kentucky: UK's run of three consecutive bowl wins might be in danger. Mike Hartline must show he can become a solid SEC quarterback. He will be throwing to a bunch of young receivers. Randall Cobb remains a wild card, in a good way, as a Wildcat (quarterback), punt returner and receiver. Rich Brooks has his best defensive line since coming to Kentucky. He wants to get the 'Cats into the Top 25 on a regular basis before turning things over to coach-in-waiting Joker Phillips. Must-see game: Nov. 28 vs. Tennessee. The Vols have beaten the 'Cats 24 consecutive times, second-longest streak between two teams.

5. Tennessee: Behind the bluster is this: Tennessee isn't particularly good. The offense is going to be painful to watch -- again. Lane Kiffin has yet to sign the quarterback who will define his success in Knoxville. His best hope at the position might be Eric Berry, who should get some snaps behind center. If the offensive line holds up and if the NCAA doesn't interfere, maybe super freshman Bryce Brown can keep the Vols in the hunt. Guru Monte Kiffin gets a head start with athletes on his side of the ball. Defense wasn't the problem last season. Must-see game: Sept. 19 at Florida. Oh, the humanity!

6. Vanderbilt: After going 26 years between bowls, Vandy just might be getting started. Coach Bobby Johnson gets all five starters back on the offensive line. The defense that allowed less than 20 points per game is stout as well. It will be typical Commodores in that they will struggle to score but hang in with defense. Must-see game: Nov. 21 at Tennessee. If this is for bowl eligibility either team would be ecstatic over going to Shreveport, La. for the Independence Bowl.