Big 12 tiebreaker shouldn't hose Longhorns this season

DALLAS -- Halfway through the season and Texas is right where it wants to be. Well, if you consider a clunky offense featuring anonymous running backs, guided by a quarterback with a banged up thumb the way to go.

Well, yes, then Texas is right where it wants to be.

There are two currently ranked teams left on the regular-season schedule for Colt McCoy's Longhorns. (US Presswire)

The BCS standings debuted Sunday with the Longhorns at No. 3 behind Florida and Alabama. That is definitely a good place to be considering only once in the past 11 years have the top two teams debuting in the BCS standings played for the national championship. This is a system where playing from behind is good. The best team doesn't always get rewarded.

A year ago, Texas debuted at No. 1 in the BCS after beating Oklahoma and Missouri in consecutive weeks. Look where that got the Longhorns: The dreaded Big 12 tiebreaker.

"I told the kids we're sitting right there in [somewhat] the same spot and didn't get to play in the conference championship or the national championship," coach Mack Brown said after Saturday's 16-13 victory over the Sooners.

This time, the Sooners are dead, kaput, out of the championship race. Last year they hung on despite a loss to Texas because the Sooners debuted at No. 4 in the BCS standings. Texas then lost to Texas Tech, Oklahoma kept winning and all three finished at 7-1 in the Big 12 South. OU "won" the division with the highest BCS ranking by a fraction of a point.

The season, path and goal are clearer this year. If the 'Horns win the rest of their games, they will play for the national championship. That much we know as the BCS standings spit out the top five this way: 1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Boise State, 5. Cincinnati.

The story today is not plucky Boise with the highest BCS debut by a non-BCS team. The story is not Cincinnati, which has saved the Big East's rep. The story today is not the Gators or the Tide. Florida and Alabama, if neither one loses before Dec. 5, will play each other on that date in the SEC championship. That guarantees Texas a spot if, once again, it keeps winning. That's as definitive as it gets after looking at the first BCS.

You might have noticed lately that Brown and his 'Horns were tortured souls last season. Only at Texas is a 12-1 season that includes a Fiesta Bowl win somehow a failure. It is when you beat your biggest rival and watch that rival leap frog you for the championship.

That's why Brown now conducts weekly BCS updates with his players. The message: We have to win them all. For the second year in a row, Texas has done just that to this point, starting 6-0.

"We're going to try really hard not to let the system put us where it wants to this year," Brown said. "We're not as excited about the system as some."

The rest of the season, then, is less about who Texas plays than how it plays. It does not play Florida or Alabama. It has to play with a sense of desperation.

Colt McCoy is obviously something less than what he was last year. Whether that has to do with an, at times, shaky offensive line, unreliable receivers (beyond Jordan Shipley) and that aforementioned stable of tailbacks, McCoy is not the automaton who completed almost 80 percent of his passes in 2008.

Texas must win with its defense. The unit was just OK last season (51st overall) even though it led the Big 12. This season it is monstrous -- sixth nationally. The nation's best run D limited Oklahoma to a Red River Shootout-record negative 16 yards and sadly knocked Sam Bradford out again.

The second half of the season starts Saturday at Missouri, a team on a two-game losing streak that was destroyed last season in Austin. There are two currently ranked teams left on the schedule (Oklahoma State and Kansas) before the Big 12 title game in, where else? ... Texas (Cowboys Stadium in Arlington).

"You can't just look at the end all the time," Brown said. "That's what the system is making everybody do. They're not enjoying the season. It's the upsets we're talking about and not the wins."

The Longhorns better enjoy the journey. They already know the end can be too painful.

The BCS top five

Now that we're halfway through season it's time to size up how each of the teams reach the championship game ...

1. Florida: Bit by bit, it seems, opponents are exposing the Gators. LSU couldn't break through against the defense but limited Tim Tebow to 168 yards in his first game back from the concussion. Arkansas seemed to crack the code forcing four turnovers and sacking Tebow six times. That was either the 2009 version of Ole Miss (almost) or a foreshadowing of a major upset.

Forecast: SEC championship and perhaps beyond.
Best chance to be upset: Nov. 14 at South Carolina.

2. Alabama: Peaking with a magnificent 20-6 victory over South Carolina. Mark Ingram established himself as a Heisman frontrunner with 246 yards. The defense was rabid. What sets 'Bama apart from Florida is its overall balance.

Forecast: SEC Championship Game and perhaps beyond.
Best chance to be upset: Nov. 28 at Auburn

3. Texas: These guys are physical. Defensive back Aaron Williams knocked Bradford out of the game on a sack. Sergio Kindle had six tackles and half a sack on Saturday. It's getting risky to rely too much on McCoy. He fumbled twice and threw an interception that could have lost the game. But how do you rip a guy who is five victories away from being the winningest quarterback in history? His 38 wins as a starter trail Georgia's David Greene by four.

Forecast: Big 12 champions and a berth in either the Fiesta Bowl or BCS title game.
Best chance to be upset: Oct. 31 at Oklahoma State.

4. Boise State: They're celebrating in Boysee but not for long. The Broncos suddenly have to share the state with Idaho. And Even if they keep winning, they are sure to slide because of strength of schedule. The issue now becomes can BCS No. 8 TCU pass the Broncs for the BCS bowl bid.

Forecast: Undefeated WAC champions and perhaps a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Best chance to be upset: Nov. 14 vs. Idaho.

5. Cincinnati: The Bearcats have won 11 of their last 13 conference games and are on track for a second consecutive BCS bowl. Coach Brian Kelly has taken offense players and turned them into linebackers to bolster a defense that lost 10 starters.

Forecast: Big East champs and a second consecutive Orange Bowl berth.
Best chance to be upset: Dec. 5 at Pittsburgh.