At-large bids, conference races in spotlight this weekend
There is one game this week that may have an impact on the BCS championship race, but otherwise, the focus turns to the battles for conference titles and BCS at-large spots.
LSU travels to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in the only game between top 10 teams. The Crimson Tide can clinch the SEC West with a win and finalize the showdown with Florida on Dec. 5. The Gators clinched the East last week.
The Tigers are not out of the BCS championship hunt either. If they win, they would move into a tie in the West and hold the tiebreaker over Alabama. If there is a potential one-loss team that could jump some unbeatens and thrust itself into the BCS title game, it's LSU. Winning out for LSU would mean avenging its only loss, at the hands of No. 1 Florida.
Oregon now has a leg up on the Pac-10 race after beating Southern California last week, but the Ducks' work is far from over. They have a big trap game this week as they visit Stanford. The Cardinal are looking to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001, and they have had an extra week to prepare for Oregon.
Iowa needs to avoid looking ahead to next week's battle at Ohio State and take care of Northwestern first. The Hawkeyes have been playing with fire all season, and the Wildcats have a history of playing them tough. NU has won three of the past four in the series, including twice in Iowa City.
Ohio State won't be looking past its opponent this week as the Buckeyes are in Happy Valley to play Penn State. The Nittany Lions are about as sure a bet to get an at-large berth as there is if they win out to finish 11-1. They would still be very attractive even at 10-2, but Ohio State's only chance at the BCS is to win out and play in the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champion. The Buckeyes have no realistic shot at an at-large bid.
Boise State plays at Louisiana Tech on Friday night on national TV and will be looking to make a stronger impression on the voters than the Broncos did their last time in the spotlight, a 28-21 win over Tulsa. Boise State cannot afford another close call. TCU is already past the Broncos in the BCS in the battle for the one guaranteed at-large spot that goes to the highest-rated non-major conference champion.
There has been a lot of talk this week about the possibility of Oregon passing Boise State in the BCS ratings if both teams win out. I think that is all but inevitable, and could even happen this week. I think it will happen, even if the voters leave the Broncos ahead of the Ducks in the polls, as expected. Oregon's computer strength at 11-1 figures to be not just better, but strong enough to overcome the will of the voters.
While that would cause outrage if it happens, it's nothing more than a footnote and an example of how big differences in strength of schedule can still play a role in the ratings. It isn't important unless this eventually becomes a battle for a spot in the BCS title game. At this point, that looks unlikely.
Many people are also talking about the possibility of both TCU and Boise State getting BCS berths. That is pretty unlikely. The pickings would have to be pretty slim for a bowl to choose either of those teams without being compelled to do so. That could happen though, if the competition is a Big East team or an ACC team. Teams from those leagues don't fare much better in the TV ratings than non-majors, except for Florida State and Miami.
That means Boise State and TCU fans should be rooting for Arizona State to upset USC this week. The Trojans are already in the top 14 and would be a very attractive at-large team. An upset could happen, if USC has a hangover from the beating they took last week.
Another team for the non-majors to root for is Navy as they face Notre Dame this week. The Irish still haven't cracked the top 20 and have to get to 14th to have a chance at a BCS game. That will only happen if they win out, but if they do, the BCS bowls will be jumping at a chance to grab them.
