In the Trenches: Expanding on expansion, signing surprises, title guesses
CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd and J. Darin Darst provide analysis on college football topics.
1. Which team or conference is going to be left out in the cold after this latest round of expansion (Pac-10, Big Ten)?
DODD: Why don't you ask me to sequence DNA while you're at it? The answer really depends on which way the big dogs want to go. Right now, the list of potentially endangered conferences encompasses almost half of I-A (Big 12, Big East, Mountain West, WAC and Conference USA). That's another way of saying there is probably going to be a lot of trickle down. First, a disclaimer: I'm not 100 percent convinced that the Big Ten is going to do anything. Short of Notre Dame and Texas, there are no schools out there that blow me (or perhaps Big Ten presidents) away. If the Big Ten does expand, as of right now, Missouri is the prime candidate. That would leave the Big East untouched. If the Big Ten takes Syracuse, Pittsburgh or Rutgers, then the Big East has a couple of decisions to make: It could shore up the membership by immediately inviting Central Florida. But is staying at eight teams enough in the current landscape? The Big East might have to go to 12 teams itself and stage a championship game. That means grabbing Central Florida, Memphis, East Carolina, Navy and a fifth school that, frankly, I'm clueless about. If the Big East goes mega, then Conference USA is in disarray at best or finished at worse. Of course the Big East basketball situation muddies things up. It's hard to imagine C-USA existing after the loss of up to four members. If the Big Ten goes west and grabs Missouri, then the Mountain West and WAC are more at risk. If Missouri or Colorado leave, the Big 12 would most likely grab TCU from the Mountain West. The MWC's standing in the BCS would be severely damaged because it would have to grab Boise State, Fresno State or UTEP to replace TCU. Maybe the MWC expands by four to go to 12, picking off teams from the WAC. If the Pac-10 invites Colorado and Utah, then the Big 12 and MWC are affected. If the Big 12 loses Missouri and Colorado it would invite TCU and ... who? BYU? Colorado State? If the Pac-10 invites BYU and Utah, then the Big 12 might be safe (if Missouri stays). Team-wise, I would say Utah or BYU clearly stand to benefit the most. One or both could go from begging for BCS scraps to playing for the Rose Bowl, at least, each season. After that, UTEP has to feel good about itself. The Miners stand a good chance of moving up to the Mountain West. That would give a floundering football program and a historically significant, well-respected basketball program access to better players. The biggest loser(s)? I would say teams like Marshall, Southern Miss and Rice, which will have no place to go if C-USA breaks up. There will be some kind of reconstituted conference for them but something in reduced stature from Conference USA.
DARST: Here's the problem with conference expansion talk: It's all rumors right now. Every day I hear about a new team wanting to join the Big Ten and most of the teams are from the Big 12 (Texas, Nebraska, Missouri). It is also very hard to predict which teams will land where, but the Big Ten seems to hold all the cards and can steal a team from the Big 12 or Big East. Even though this is a guessing game, I'll play along. The Big East is the conference I'm looking at to get screwed. If the Big Ten takes Rutgers or Pittsburgh or both, that would leave the Big East as the worst BCS conference by far. It's hard to compete with the big boys when Connecticut is one of your football powerhouses. The conference only has eight teams now, so if a few leave, the conference is going to be in trouble. It will have to take teams from (gulp!) Conference USA or the Sun Belt. Hard to keep that BCS automatic bid if you are stealing teams from C-USA. Maybe C-USA and the Big East can combine for some 14-team conference (after it kicks out a few schools) and try its hardest to compete with the big boys. The Big East is going to have to figure what to do if it has only six football teams and 14 basketball teams. I know this is a football discussion, but that has to come into play when looking at the conference as a whole. Adding Memphis might not be an improvement for football, but does add a huge dimension for basketball. If the Big Ten takes teams from the Big 12, I am pretty confident the Big 12 can survive. Just pull TCU from the Mountain West and Houston from C-USA and they will be fine. Now for the Pac-10 ... Utah would be high on the list and maybe BYU or Fresno State or even Colorado. So that means the Mountain West might have to replace two schools. Ring, ring ... Boise State calling, line 1. I have said all along the MWC and WAC should create a super conference. Maybe if a few schools leave, this could be the chance. C'mon Craig Thompson, do it! Again it's all fun to guess, but really, who the hell knows. One thing is for sure, the Big East is under the microscope. When the ACC expanded, the Big East got screwed and if Rutgers/Pittsburgh/Syracuse leave it will get screwed again. Hard to believe a conference so strong in basketball is so weak in football.
2. After a signing day that saw the usual suspects get stronger -- Southern California, Florida and Alabama -- which school had the most surprising signing class?
DODD: Auburn. A year ago we were blasting the suits on The Plains for hiring Gene "5-19" Chizik. The administration had run off a fine man and a fine coach in Tommy Tuberville. Alabama was getting ready to take off. Things couldn't have looked worse. In his first season, Chizik won eight games, scared the bejesus out of 'Bama and landed a top five recruiting class. It's clear the Tigers aren't going away any time soon. Chizik landed juco star quarterback Cameron Newton (formerly of Florida) and five-star players Shon Coleman and Michael Dyer. Chizik and his wing man, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, are just getting started.
DARST: For me, it had to be Florida State. Who knew all it took for the Seminoles to get back to having a top 10 class was to get rid of Bobby Bowden? I thought Bowden was the guy who walked into the living room to seal the deal ... now it's Jimbo Fisher? Coaching uncertainty the past few years at FSU definitely had something to do with it. Hard to send your kid to college when you don't know who the head coach will be from year to year, but still, I was very surprised on signing day. Snagging LB Christian Jones, WR Christian Green and DL Bjorn Werner to the guys they already had locked up makes it a very nice recruiting class. Obviously, recruiting is all a guessing game, but the Seminoles look primed for an ACC title run in a couple of seasons.
3. It's mid-February, but if you had to bank on two teams playing for the national title, which two would it be and why?
DODD: Based on the Last Impression Theory, I'm going with Alabama vs. Ohio State. The impression left by both teams in the bowls is: Just getting started. As of now, I prefer to believe that Terrelle Pryor has turned the corner after that Rose Bowl performance. Even if he hasn't, the defense is good enough to win nine games by itself. The biggest obstacles on the schedule are trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Considering that Ohio State has won at least a share of the past five Big Ten titles, those roadies aren't daunting. The Big Ten suddenly feels good about itself with the end of the Rose Bowl losing streak and depth at the top that goes four teams deep (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State). As for 'Bama, little will change even with the loss of nine defensive starters. Given the talent Nick Saban has assembled, who says the 2010 D can't be almost as good? Give me the defending Heisman trophy winner, that offensive line, Julio Jones and Trent Richardson and I'm not worried too much about the defense anyway. In case you haven't noticed, Saban is just getting settled in Tuscaloosa. Multiple championships are waiting as long as he stays.
DARST: This is the overwhelming opinion by most of the country -- Alabama vs. Ohio State. The Crimson Tide will be the best SEC team next year so they have to be the favorites to get to the title game again. As for Ohio State, it's hard to ignore. The Buckeyes lose only two starters on offense and if Terrelle Pryor can play like he did in the Rose Bowl for an entire season, Ohio State is going to be tough to beat (I know that's a big IF). My only concern for Ohio State is the road games at Iowa and at Wisconsin. Now after that has all been said, here is the sleeper team that could crash the party ... Nebraska. Yeah I said it. Sure it lost Ndamukong Suh, but the defense is still going to be loaded and the offense will be much better next season. Another thing that works in Nebraska's favor is the schedule. A cupcake out-of-conference schedule, a home game vs. Texas and it doesn't have to play Oklahoma. I expect Nebraska to be up in the top 5 all season, so it will just need a few teams to stumble ahead of it and it could sneak into the title game.
