Balance of power: Top 25 Things to Watch

Psst, over here. Look at this playbook we "found" at Miami the other day.

Discovered something. You want the password for the 2002 season? Check this out: balance. Yeah, that's right. Balance. Unless you're Frank Solich, every coach in the country wants it.

Florida's Ron Zook, like many coaches, will be looking for equal parts running and passing.(AP)

Forget all that stuff you've heard about Fun 'N' Gun. It's fun -- and then run -- in equal shares. Today's philosophy is to play more "down the middle" than a Tiger drive. Get more balanced than the Flying Wallendas.

You've got to be able to go both ways these days. "Do you swing?" has been replaced by "Do you swing pass?" Being reliant on one form of offensive expression over the other can stereotype an entire race -- for a conference title.

Yes, Nebraska steamrolls on the ground, but it also led the Big 12 by averaging 8.2 yards per pass.

Consider that little nugget of information a gift, from us to you. Only it doesn't end there. In what has become somewhat of a preseason tradition here at SportsLine.com, we present the annual Top 25 Things to Watch for the 2002 season. Some are silly. Some are irreverent. Some are as serious as a Tyrone Willingham press conference.

Hopefully, it's all relevant, because summing up the season in 25 topics is like limiting Ralph Friedgen to the salad bar.

But we digress ...

Offensive balance starts with a quarterback who can move around in the pocket slightly more than the lint in Rosie O'Donnell's. Mix in a bunch of hybrid linemen. Lean, lithe dudes who don't necessarily weigh 300 pounds. Hey, the Denver Broncos won a couple of Super Bowls with midgets like that.

Then turn them loose with a 500-page playbook that would baffle Stephen Hawking. At the end of the day, ol' State U. might run, oh, 76 plays. Thirty-eight passes, thirty-eight runs.

That's ideal. That's 21st century. The trend has crept into the game you didn't even notice. For all the exploits of Marshall's Byron Leftwich, the Thundering Herd passed only 74 more times than it ran. That's an average of six more passes than runs per game.

Colorado had the No. 8 rushing offense in the country (228.5 yards per game) but it was barely more productive than the passing game (205.9 yards).

Last year, LSU won the SEC throwing it 411 times and rushing it 451. It's the reason Oklahoma is promising a power running game under former Northwestern offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, rather than one based on deception. It's why Florida's Ron Zook, though he can't say it out loud in Gainesville, wants to make Earnest Graham a 1,000-yard rusher. Never mind that Graham has never rushed for more than 676 yards in a season.

The point here is that most college football games have become more centrist than your average president. Last year, 10 I-A teams averaged at least 200 yards both passing and running. Of those 10, five (BYU, Colorado, Miami, Middle Tennessee and Maryland) won at least a share of a conference title.

In 1999, there were only two teams that went 200-200.

So it has become a thinking man's game, especially if you're thinking about having four kids -- two boys and two girls.

All right, so there's your appetizer. Here's your 25-piece feedbag. Enjoy.

1. So ... who do you like?

Glad you asked ...

Zook and his energy. After a chance meeting between the two shortly after Zook was named coach, the Energizer Bunny was found in a shallow grave outside Gainesville.

Kelley Washington's, uh, confidence.

Nebraska's Solich, whose sole itch is to win a title.

UNLV coach, AD, president for life, big daddy and pit boss John Robinson.

Frank Broyles vs. prostate cancer. Take the over.

Ethics vs. the SEC. Take the under (the table).

Byron Leftwich and his powerful Rightwhich throws darts.

Miami's weather.

Cal, whether the Bears win or lose (game day, best view)

Mark Mangino's weight.

Duke's wait.

Carol Stoops.

2. No really ...

Oklahoma for its coaching. They're so good, they know what you did last summer.

Florida for its speed ... dial. Zook's first phone call was to Rex Grossman.

Florida State for its chemistry. Boosters are raising money to build a new indoor facility that will house Chris Rix's ego.

Pullman, Wash., home of Washington State, for its convenient flights from just about anywhere.

Tennessee for its release from Spurrier jail. After their long imprisonment, the inmates emerged from the locker room appearing festive in their orange jumpsuits.

Georgia for its quarterbacks. Who will transfer first, David Greene or D.J. Shockley?

Chris Simms for facing the music, answering every question after a bad game with class and truth. Gosh, at that rate he'll never make in the NFL.

Chuck Amato for his pecs. They have conducted entire interviews by themselves.

Alabama for its chutzpah. Two seconds after it barely escaped the death penalty, the not-Crimson-faced Tide were appealing to the NCAA. The school's lawyers are advised to put away the shovels. It's called the right to bear arms, not the right to Bear's arms.

Those noble, righteous men who work countless hours running the nation's Division I-A programs. In other words, the fat, arrogant insurance salesmen, divorce lawyers, assistant golf pros and low-watt radio station owners who never quite made it as athletes and had their girlfriends in high school stolen by someone better looking and with a gnarly looking Firebird instead of that piece of do-do Volkswagen Beetle your cousin sold you.

You know, the boosters.

3. How 'bout something simple: best conference

Yes, the Big 12. This one isn't even open for discussion. Texas A&M could easily go 10-2 this year and finish third in the Big 12 South.

Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado all will contend for the national championship. The league has won two of the past four Heismans. In three of the past five years, Big 12 teams have played for a national championship. It has won two (Nebraska shared in 1997 and Oklahoma won outright in 2000).

The pay doesn't suck either. Half the coaches in the league make at least $1 million per year, total package.

This is the third season in a row at least three teams showed up in the preseason top 10.

Sorry, SEC, you're too corrupt and missing one large visor. The Big Ten is on sabbatical until further notice. Reduce the Pac-10 to the Pacific Northwest Conference (Oregon, Washington and Washington State) and you've got an argument but, for now, the Big 12 rules.

4. OK, well, if Texas and Oklahoma cancel each other out, if Casey Clausen breaks his leg, if Washington State is a fraud, if Florida beats Miami, if Miami beats Florida State and if Florida State beats Florida, what horse has a chance to emerge out of the dark?

Louisville. They've got the schedule and the roster to be able to break through. Quarterback Dave Ragone is as good as anyone in the country. Coach John L. Smith should be at a BCS school by now but is comfortable coaching and winning at a basketball school (34-15 in four years, 20-5 in the last two).

What separates the Cardinals from the non-BCS chaff is a defense that could allow them to go undefeated. Ten starters return. Conference USA defensive player of the year Dewayne White is so dominant at end that junior Devon Thomas should have a monster year at the opposite end.

The season comes down to a Sept. 26 Thursday night game at home against Florida State. It should be one of the most entertaining games of the year.

How many teams outside of Miami have won two consecutive conference titles? In this age of parity, Louisville is a power on the rise.

5. Man of the year

Mike Tranghese, Big East commissioner.

The man is the Rudy Giuliani of the sport. He is outspoken, makes sense and gets things done. Whatever form college football takes following the BCS (whenever that is) Tranghese will be the one behind the scenes quietly forming the consensus.

His idea to form a human oversight committee for the BCS was the best thing we've heard since the damn thing started four years ago. College football will be a better place for the next two years with him as BCS chairman.

6. Coach of the year

Dan Hawkins, Boise State.

This job is the steppingstone of all steppingstones. Houston Nutt (Arkansas) and Dirk Koetter (Arizona State) have used it to get bigger, better jobs. Hawkins went 8-4 in his first season, ended Fresno State's undefeated season and finished second in the WAC.

This year, with 14 starters back, the Broncos have the talent to win at Arkansas. That's about all that stands between Hawkins and an undefeated season.

7. Playa of the Year

No, not Kid Rock in that Coors commercial.

It's Leftwich. Dorsey or Grossman are likely to win the Heisman. But no player will mean more to his team than the Marshall quarterback.

He could be the NFL's No. 1 draft choice in April. Leftwich will lead Marshall to the brink of a BCS berth, if not beyond.

8. We already have a playoff, dummies

Not satisfied with the BCS? It's doubtful whether a playoff could have produced any better finish than the final month of last season.

Ohio State won at Michigan;
Colorado shocked Nebraska;
Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma;
Tennessee won at Florida;
LSU beat Tennessee in the SEC championship game;
Colorado beat Texas in the Big 12 championship game

This season hinges on two major matchups that could decide the Fiesta Bowl berths. Oklahoma meets Texas in Dallas on Oct. 12. Miami travels to Tennessee on Nov. 9.

But for a sure thing, look to the state of Florida. This season for the first time in 15 years the state's three major programs will play each other. This is significant because the best team in the state of Florida has played in the BCS championship game in each of the past four seasons.

The matchups:

• Miami at Florida, Sept. 7
• Florida State at Miami, Oct. 12
• Florida at Florida State, Nov. 30.

9. The Big Four

Look for the BCS bowls to be populated by these teams.

Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Miami
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. Texas
Rose: Washington State vs. Ohio State

10. Losing streaks

Duke, 23

Best chance for victory: Sept. 28 at Navy

Comment: Starting quarterback flunked out. Backup arrested for DUI. Hey, but on the bright side, the Blue Devils go to Florida State on Sept. 21.

Houston, 15

Best chance for victory: Aug. 31 at Rice

Comment: Inexplicable why Bill Snyder disciple Dana Dimel can't win at this commuter school in the heart of Texas.

Tulsa, 10

Best chance for victory: Sept. 7 at Arkansas State

Comment: High school games sell out at Skelly Stadium. The Golden Hurricane do not.

Navy, 10

Best chance for victory: Sept. 28 vs. Duke

Comment: SEAL training now includes having to watch Navy practice.

Wyoming, 8

Best chance for victory: Oct. 5 vs. The Citadel

Comment: Third-year coach Vic Koenning (3-19) has yet to win a conference game.

11. Winning streaks

Miami, 22

Best chance for a loss: Nov. 9 at Tennessee

Comment: Aside from an inexperienced secondary, the 'Canes are as talented as last year.

South Florida, 6

Best chance for a loss: Sept. 14 at Arkansas

Comment: Someday soon, the Bulls will compete for the state championship with Miami, Florida and Florida State.

Pittsburgh, 6

Best chance for a loss: Sept. 7 vs. Texas A&M

Comment: The naming of inexperienced quarterback Rod Rutherford as starter ensures this streak won't last long.

LSU, 6

Best chance for a loss: Sept. 1 at Virginia Tech

Comment: The Hokies will play that day as 10 new Tigers make their first start.

12. Better defending champs than defending chumps

The coaches of four conference champs in 2001 are a combined 29 games below .500 in their careers. Match these coaches who won at least a share of conference title last year with their career records.

a) Gary Barnett, Colorado, Big 12
b) Jack Bicknell III, Louisiana Tech, WAC
c) Darryl Dickey, North Texas, Sun Belt*
d) Ron Turner, Illinois, Big Ten

1) 33-35
2) 13-32
3) 18-17
4) 63-72-2

Answers: a-4; b-3; c-2; d-1
*Shared title

13. The defense continues to rest

In case you haven't noticed, scoring is in. So in that it doesn't take much of a defense anymore to win. Examples:

LSU won its last five on its way to the SEC title and a Sugar Bowl victory giving up 24 points per game. It won those games by an average of 11 points.

Michigan had the best defense in the Big Ten but surrendered 503 yards to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

Only 10 teams last year gave up fewer than 300 yards per game. That's down from 12 two years ago.

14. Best of the 21st century, or Holy Toledo!

Since the bowls of January 2000, these teams have the best record in the 21st century:

1. Miami (24-1)
2. Oklahoma (24-2)
3. Oregon (21-3)
4. Toledo (20-3)
5. Nebraska (22-4)
6. Louisville (20-5)
7. Washington (19-5)
8. Virginia Tech (19-5)
9. Florida State (20-6)
10. Texas (20-6)
11. Florida (20-6)
12. Boise State (18-6)

15. Variation on a Heisman theme

Just once we'd like to hear a Heisman candidate say, "Yeah, I'd love to win it. (Grossman/Dorsey/Manning) is (an overrated poser/average/a jerk/smelly). Did you see him (against Oklahoma/against Florida/spread-eagle on the hood of that police cruiser)?

It would mean (millions on my first NFL contract/a nice nest egg if I have to sell it to pay child support/I'm infallible). Screw the games, I've got the most (hits on my website/T-shirts/posters/mouse pads/lawyers on speed dial). The Heisman isn't about football. It's about (marketing/hype/putting it in the face of my estranged father). Why strain yourself against Tennessee's rush when your action figure already is a prize in a McDonald's Happy Meal?

If my (sports information director/12 consecutive nationally televised games/interviews with the New York Times) don't make the difference I'm going to (pout/become academically ineligible/urinate in public after an all-night bender before the bowl game).

16. Hey cuz, bro, uncle

If Southern Cal All-American Troy Polamalu needs advice, he can get it from six, count 'em six, relatives who have played college football.

• Brother Kao Aumua played at Texas-El Paso.
• An uncle, Kennedy Pola, was a Trojan fullback from 1982-85. He is currently the Trojans running backs and special teams coach.
• Another uncle, Al Pola, played at Penn State.
• Cousin Nicky Sualua was a running back at Ohio and played with Cincinnati and Dallas of the NFL.
• Cousin Leie Sualua was a defensive lineman at Oregon.
• Cousin Joe Polamalu played at Oregon State in 1987 and 1988.

17. Ascending

Colorado State: Will play anyone, anywhere. Sonny Lubick enters his 10th season as the savior of the team. Hard to believe Earle Bruce once guided this model program.

Texas Tech: While on probation for four years and missing 16 scholarships, Tech went 27-21 under two coaches. Someday in the near future, the Red Raiders are going to win a Big 12 title.

Cincinnati: Coach Rick Minter has taken the Bearcats to bowl games in three of the past five years. Conference USA freshman of the year Gino Guidugli will be calling signals for the next three years. One of two things is going to happen: Minter will leave soon for a better job, or the Bearcats will become an annual top-20 program.

Boston College: The loss of William Green shouldn't deter the Eagles from finishing second behind Miami in the Big East.

Southern Cal: If everything goes right -- Carson Palmer will finally blossom, the running game will start clicking, defensive tackle Shaun Cody has a monster year -- the Trojans could challenge for a New Year's Day bowl. The schedule, though, is brutal.

Oklahoma State: Do you believe in magic? Rashaun Woods' game-winning catch against Oklahoma should carry over after a 4-7 season. The Cowboys should be 4-0 when they go to Texas on Oct. 5.

South Carolina: Lou Holtz has set us up perfectly. He spent the summer writing A Teen's Game Plan For Life. About his team he says, "I've got to be honest ... I've never had a team I've known less about." Only nine starters return but no coach gets more out of less. Does anyone smell 8-4?

Wisconsin: Receiver Lee Evans' knee is mending faster than excepted; Brooks Bollinger will lead the Big Ten's best offense. The Badgers are a dark horse to win the conference -- beating everyone 33-30.

Ohio State: Best mojo in the country. Buckeyes love Jim Tressel. Coming off a victory over Michigan. Justin Zwick is waiting in the wings. Should win the Big Ten.

18. Descending

Mississippi State: Where Jackie Sherrill goes, NCAA problems follow. The Bulldogs finished last in the SEC West last year and look worse this year.

Arizona: The only Pac-10 team never to play in the Rose Bowl will stay Pasadena-less. John Mackovic turned himself in for an NCAA violation when he mentioned that he checked a weight coach's attendance sheet for summer workouts. Games at Wisconsin, Washington, Stanford and Oregon State won't help improve on Mackovic's 5-6 first season.

Illinois: No Kurt Kittner, no way for the Illini to duplicate last year's 10-2 season.

Michigan: Please, let us in Lloyd. Penetrating the Wolverines' iron curtain for information is tougher than sneaking into the KGB. Until we know more about the team, how can we evaluate it?

Nebraska: Eric Crouch is gone. Only 11 starters return. Expect at least four losses in a 13-game schedule.

UCLA: After winning their first six in 2001 the Bruins dropped four of their next five. DeShaun Foster started driving B-movie actors' SUVs. QB Cory Paus hid two alcohol-related incidents from the team. How long will new athletic director Dan Guerrero tolerate Bob Toledo?

19. All-Name Team

Offense

OL Richie Incognito, Nebraska
OL Eyoseph Efseaff, UCLA
OL Atlas Herrion, Alabama
OL Sam Lightbody, Washington State
OL Monreko Crittenden, Auburn
WR Taco Wallace, Kansas State
WR Craphonso Thorpe, Florida State
WR Jackie Robinson, Clemson
RB Adimchinobe Echemandu, Arizona State
FB Oschlor Flemming, Texas A&M
QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq, Minnesota

Defense

DE Tully Banta-Cain, Cal
DE Kenechi Udeze, USC
DT Vaka Manupuna, Colorado
DT Seppo Evwaraye, Nebraska
LB Banks Floodman, Kansas
LB Herana-Daze Jones, Indiana
LB Alex Markogiannakis, Virginia Tech
FS Danielle McLean, Baylor
SS Shernard Newby, Virginia
CB Demetrius Hookin, LSU
CB Ukee Dozier, Minnesota

Special teams

P Chance Gwaltney, Florida State
K Sandro Sciortino, Boston College

20. Ahead of schedule

One hack's opinion ...

BCS team with toughest schedule: USC

The Trojans go to Colorado and Kansas State on consecutive Saturdays. Pac-10 roadies at Washington State, Oregon and Stanford. Seven bowl teams. Yo, Mike Garrett, at least Troy State plays this kind of schedule for paydays. What's your excuse?

BCS team with easiest schedule: North Carolina State

Bank on the first 10-victory season in the history of the program. Massachusetts, New Mexico, East Tennessee State, Wake Forest and Duke come to Raleigh. Games at Texas Tech, Navy and Clemson are more than winnable. After tough roadies at Maryland and Virginia, the Wolfpack close with Florida State at home. Will the ACC title be on the line?

Honorable mention: Oklahoma. The Sooners have two tests, Oct. 12 against Texas in Dallas and Nov. 9 at Texas A&M.

Non-BCS school with toughest schedule: Troy State

Are you kidding? The Trojans play six of the first seven on the road. Only the big guarantee will soften the blow when Nebraska (at Lincoln), Mississippi State (at Starkville), Marshall (at Huntington) and Arkansas (at Fayetteville) bring the wood.

Non-BCS school with easiest schedule: Toledo

Coach Tom Amstutz has to rebuild after losing 15 starters from a 10-2 team, but the cotton soft schedule should help. Two bowl teams (UNLV and Pittsburgh) are beatable. Easy trips to Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. Ozzie Smith's school (Cal Poly San Luis Obispo) comes calling for the opener.

Honorable mention: Marshall. Only a Sept. 12 trip to Virginia Tech could get in the way of an undefeated season.

21. At least Spurrier used to take a breath now and then

Heads are still spinning from Florida coach Ron Zook's opening remarks at SEC media days. Deep breath now everyone, 'cause here goes:

"I think probably one of the things that has impressed me the most about being at the University of Florida is the attitude our players have taken obviously every time you get change people resist change and one of the reasons I really believe the transition has gone as smoothly as it has is because our players have bought into everything we asked them to do. There could have been a lot of them saying, 'We won a lot of games doing it this way,' but we haven't heard any of that. They've tried to do everything we've asked them to do and worked extremely hard. Obviously when you're putting in a new offense, a new defense and new special teams they have a tendency sometimes to put the brakes on and these guys haven't done that. They've been a pleasure to work with. I think the players like our coaching staff, we're very excited to get started. This is the time of year when everyone obviously is anticipating big things and they're anticipating things about their football team and obviously there's a lot of questions about the University of Florida right now and to be honest with you we kind of like that and we're excited to get going as well so that's kind of where we're at right now and obviously if there are any questions out there we'll answer them."

One wag clocked Zook at 265 words in 65 seconds. He might not really say anything, but Zook can filibuster with the best of them.

22. First coach fired

Keith Burns, Tulsa.

Although Carl Franks at Duke and Kevin Steele and Baylor are likely to get The Big Haircut after the season, Burns probably won't make it that long.

Burns is 6-17 in two seasons and there is absolutely no buzz about this program. In a football-mad state the Golden Hurricane should be doing better than this. Tulsa was 109th in offense and 101st in defense.

Hey, but the good news is Tulsa tries to recover playing three Big 12 teams (Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas).

23. Upsets of the year

Cincinnati over Ohio State, Sept. 21: Technically a neutral site game because it is being played in the Bengals new stadium. And really not at upset considering it is a matchup of two 7-5 teams, but if Conference USA beats the Big Ten, the result will send shock waves.

Middle Tennessee over Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Aug. 31: Blue Raiders catch Tide napping out of the gate. The talent at Murfreesboro is better than most realize.

Louisiana Tech over Clemson at Clemson, Sept. 7: Not a good matchup for Clemson. The defense is weak and Louisiana Tech can score against anyone. Jack Bicknell III punches his ticket for his next job after this one.

Utah over Michigan, at Ann Arbor, Sept. 21: Utes coach Ron McBride is committed to defense, a rarity in the Mountain West. Eight starters return from the unit that held Southern Cal to one yard rushing in the Las Vegas Bowl. We figure it will be hard for the Wolverines, nothing special to begin with, to get up for this one.

24. In and Out

In: Appealing NCAA sanctions
Out: Self-penalizing

In: The Chronic, Captain Morgan and "friendly" hostesses
Out: Official recruiting visits

In: Bumping
Out: Bump and run

In: Academic fraud
Out: Sigmund Freud

In: Hiding DUIs from the coaching staff
Out: Fake IDs

In: 1,000-yard receivers
Out: 1,000-yard rushers

In: Voluntary offseason workouts
Out: Death

In: A 12th game
Out: Undefeated seasons

In: Point spread
Out: Victory margin

25. JoePa and Bobby, Bobby and JoePa

The two coaching giants will be going at it like a couple of thoroughbreds at the Kentucky Derby.

Paterno is 75 and has 327 career victories. Bowden, the young guy at 72, has 323. Obviously, if the Seminoles return to prominence, Bowden has a chance to pass JoePa on the all-time list.

The best thing about the "battle" is that neither coach is retiring any time soon. Paterno is dropping hints about coaching until he is 80. Bowden is healthy, hearty and will continue to beat the snot out of the ACC.