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Dennis Dodd

Meeting in the middle: The modern upset

By | SportsLine.com Senior Writer

There had been two winning seasons in the previous 12. That week, a slow-footed quarterback was making his first career start -- as a senior -- against Nebraska. Vandals had struck, disassembling Iowa State's goal posts. Not that it seemed likely to matter for scatter-legged kicker Ty Stewart.

Iowa State coach Dan McCarney knows his team has a real shot against the teetering Huskers. 
Iowa State coach Dan McCarney knows his team has a real shot against the teetering Huskers.(AP) 
It seemed charitable that the Cyclones were only 29-point underdogs considering they already had lost by 17 to I-AA Northern Iowa.

"It was just one of those days," recalled that plodding quarterback, Marv Seiler, "everything was perfect for us."

Yep, all the ingredients were in place for a monumental upset 10 years ago. But the improbable 19-10 Iowa State victory wasn't just any shocker. It came with no warning, happened for no reason and disappeared into history with no explanation.

And, really, had no real effect on either program.

Nebraska, ranked seventh that week, dusted itself off after Tom Osborne's only career loss to a team that finished the season with a losing record. The Huskers wouldn't lose another regular-season conference game for almost six years. Iowa State coach Jim Walden won only three of his next 23 games before being fired in 1994.

Each Iowa State senior on that 1992 team got a modest reward -- a six-inch piece of goal post that was torn down by students and deposited in a nearby lake.

Nevertheless, The Legend of Marv Seiler has endured since then as a signpost for college football.

"Even if I want to forget, people won't let me," said Seiler, now a 32-year-old father of three and celebrity for a week.

In this age of scalped scholarship numbers, refined weight training and true freshman superstars, the definition of an upset has been modified since 1992. Seiler and the Cyclones faced the Huskers of Tommie Frazier and Trev Alberts, a team that would go on to win three national championships in five years.

Now, with the Huskers poised to fall out of the top 25 for the first time in 21 years, upsets are dictated not so much by physical differences but by mental ones.

Iowa State plays host to Nebraska again on Saturday, not just hoping it can win, but knowing it can win. Its reference points for an "upset" are modest -- a couple of low-level bowl appearances, a close loss to Florida State and Heisman candidate quarterback Seneca Wallace.

But it believes. Las Vegas oddsmakers are suggesting a Nebraska victory this week wouldn't even be an upset. The game is rated as a pick-'em.

"Things can change over a year," said Wallace, who started in last season's 48-14 loss to Nebraska. "We just have an all-around better team than last season."

What happened? Nothing, officially, until the Cyclones seal the deal with their first victory over the Huskers in 10 years. Then, at least they will have a frame of reference, something that Colorado's Gary Barnett established at both Northwestern and Colorado. Do it once and you have the confidence to do it again.

"It's right place, right time," Barnett said of his stunning turnaround of the Wildcats in the mid-1990s. "I don't think it has much to do with talent."

The Huskers have won the nine meetings vs. Iowa State since 1992 by an average of 37 points. The vagaries of the game, if only briefly, have seemingly caught up with the mighty program after a worse-than-it-looks 3-1 start. The Cyclones are just trying to catch up, having lost 29 in a row to ranked teams.

"There isn't anything we can do about the past," said Iowa State coach Dan McCarney.

When North Carolina State became the first ACC team to win at Florida State last season, coach Chuck Amato embraced the past as a motivator. The Wolfpack had beaten the Seminoles in 1998 in Raleigh. Earlier in 2001, North Carolina had dumped Bobby's boys by 32.

If ever so slightly, Florida State's invincibility cracked. And the Wolfpack's minds opened to the possibilities.

"The blood and guts does have to get involved in it," said Amato, who spent 18 years as a Florida State assistant. "There's no question Florida State's blood and guts from one to 85 is probably better than most teams. ... But there were some things we could point to, because you can't do anything about the blood and guts. It does, then, become a mind game."

Last week was typical of the modern college football weekend. Cincinnati seemed to be the better team in a narrow loss to Ohio State. Bowling Green has more Big 12 victories (two) than any Big 12 team. Wake Forest won at Purdue three weeks after losing to Northern Illinois.

"There's about three (upsets) each week that about knock you out," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "When you play at night you can usually use them with your football team, saying, 'Hey, look at this score.' It scares you to death."

It's a weird year when Notre Dame is considered a cuddly underdog at 4-0.

"Notre Dame believes by nature, just like Texas," Brown said. "They're supposed to believe. Those kids come there to win all the games."

The modern upset, Brown said, is more a case of teams meeting in the middle rather than the underdog suddenly becoming better than its tormentor. Florida State had to have a "down" year (8-4) for Maryland to win the ACC last season.

The Pac-10 has had seven different champions the past seven years. Slowly, inexorably, the power base in the league has shifted from Southern California to the Northwest for a variety of reasons.

The Big Ten has sunk into such mediocrity that almost every program is vulnerable to non-conference disgraces. Witness defending champion Illinois' loss at home last week to San Jose State.

"When you've got a lot better players than the other team, usually you have to lose the game rather than them winning it," Brown said. "That's usually done by kicking game issues or turnovers."

In 1998, Chris Weinke helped the Wolfpack by tossing six interceptions. Northern Illinois upset Wake Forest in overtime last month after blocking a field goal, then driving down to make a 46-yarder as regulation time expired. Last week, Purdue committed five turnovers allowing the Demon Deacons to sneak away with a 24-21 victory.

Cincinnati didn't need many breaks. It played the Buckeyes straight up and came within a couple of dropped end-zone passes of an upset.

"I do think we can play with those guys," Bearcats coach Rick Minter said. "The last two times we played them we could have beat them. The talent isn't such a disparity."

San Jose State coach Fitz Hill has used a Bataan Death March of a schedule as a positive. The Spartans are playing nine of 13 games on the road, logging more than 23,000 air miles. The reason is to make money for the athletic department. The so-called "body bag games" usually sacrifice the football team's confidence in exchange for a fat paycheck.

Until something like San Jose State's 38-35 upset of Illinois. It was the program's fourth victory over a BCS-conference team in five years.

"It's a matter of perspective," Hill said, "how you sell it to these young men. We weren't busing there. We get to stay in the finest hotels. Our food is good, our beds are comfortable and we play on the same size football field."

Hill contacted Arkansas State coach Steve Roberts, a college teammate, whose team already had played Illinois and San Jose State. Once again, it turned out to be a case of the programs meeting in the middle. Illinois had lost too much from its defense after a Big Ten championship. San Jose State was playing with a sizable chip on its shoulder.

"Steve said, 'We feel like after playing you guys and playing them, you guys can beat them,' Hill said. "I took that message to my staff and team. All year long it's been a money game. But is it really a money game if you win?"

When an under-funded program at a commuter school like San Jose State is knocking off the big boys, something is up. Ten years ago, Iowa State wasn't even at that stage. With the real things stolen, Stewart kicked at imaginary goal posts before the Nebraska game. Then he nailed four field goals against the Huskers.

Coaches had Seiler operate almost exclusively out of the wishbone because he couldn't throw effectively. That wouldn't be so bad if there weren't oil changes that were quicker than Seiler, who set up an insurance touchdown with a 78-yard fourth-quarter option keeper.

"I was fast enough to run 78 yards," Seiler said, "and slow enough not to score."

Iowa State might be on the cusp of breaking through with some permanence this time. The administration is being rewarded for sticking with McCarney, who was 29 games below .500 at the school before breaking through with a 9-3 record in 2000.

"If they can win this big game," Seiler said, "this could change things."

And maybe for more than one, isolated afternoon.

 
 
 
 
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