The decision to add a fifth BCS bowl might have to be tabled. Especially when the real issue might be whether to add not only a fifth, but a sixth BCS bowl.
BCS presidents were careful to say last month that a fifth BCS game will be added only if the market supports it. That is the rub that could change the postseason landscape when a new contract is signed for the 2006 season. In a depressed market, more could actually be better. Yes, the only way the market could support a fifth bowl might be to add a sixth.
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| Incoming BCS chairman Kevin Weiberg says the idea of a title game after the BCS bowls is still alive. (Provided to SportsLine) |
"The days of the loss leader are kind of over," says a source familiar with negotiating major sports rights fees. "The NCAA contract ($6.2 billion with CBS) is the last of the loss leaders."
If that statement is true, that means the two most lucrative college sports properties (the NCAA Tournament and BCS) are losing money. ABC senior vice president of programming Loren Matthews recently told the Knight Commission that his network had been losing money on the BCS.
So where does that leave a fifth bowl that is going to be taking the likes of Tulane, Marshall or Miami (Ohio)? As of now, significantly up in the air. In fact, Big 12 commissioner Kevin Weiberg has not let go of the idea of an additional stand-alone national championship game after the BCS bowls beginning with the 2006 season.
"The issue in my opinion is still alive," Weiberg said of the so-called "plus one" model. "There is interest in learning more about it."
The BCS presidents were adamant in their opposition to such a "playoff," but their options might be limited when it comes time to sign a new BCS contract. If the network(s) don't pay up for a fifth bowl equal with the other four, the money has to come from somewhere.
"Then we're back at the drawing board," said Oregon president Dave Frohnmayer, chairman of the BCS presidents. "We don't want a losing proposition. That doesn't make any sense. That's why we've been appropriately cautious."
The four BCS bowls (Sugar, Rose, Orange, Fiesta) produced $100 million in revenue last year. For a fifth bowl to make sense, common sense dictates that it must be worth $25 million on its own.
But the BCS is going to the table with what is arguably a watered-down product for that fifth bowl. ABC, sources say, is not going to take the BCS at a loss. Conversely, the BCS will want to at least equal a system that pays each BCS conference $17 million per season.
A new BCS system that could involve as many as six bowls might be the solution that satisfies everyone.
"I would be a little more cautious about characterizing it as four-plus-one because I think the fifth bowl decision is related to expanding access ..." said Weiberg, the incoming BCS chairman. "It's more in the context of five-plus-one. Any plus-one model is really a stand-alone championship game idea. That doesn't mean it couldn't exist within the bowls that are hosting regular bowl games as well."
A fifth bowl not in the regular BCS rotation would be elevated up to host that BCS title game every fifth year. While that's great for second-tier bowls like the Cotton, Citrus, Peach and Houston, it's a quandary for the existing BCS bowls.
Using the plus-one model, it makes sense this way: The non-BCS schools will have even more of a chance to compete for a national championship. It is basically agreed that any plus-one model has a better chance of drawing the desired rights fees than an equitable five-bowl system.
In a plus-one system, two teams would be selected out of a pool of the four or five BCS bowl-game winners. Those two would play for the national championship in sort of a BCS "Super Bowl."
"I don't know if I'd call it a likely scenario," Weiberg said. "I think it's one there remains enough interest in that we would try to test at least."
Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany agreed. He told the Indianapolis Star that from a "political perspective" there is very little support for a plus-one.
"I think you could bid it," he told the newspaper. "You could evaluate it from a financial perspective, and people might be intrigued to know what its value is. ... Whether we bid it or not, I don't know. The presidents will finally make that determination. It hasn't been taken off the table as a possibility to bid."
A plus-one also doesn't get around the problem of selecting those two teams. However, it might be more palatable than leaving it up to the controversial BCS math that produced split national champions last year.
It also doesn't get around the semantics of the BCS presidents still calling that one game a "playoff."
"I don't think at this point there is any momentum for one bowl that is played apart from the others," Frohnmayer said. "The five are really seen as (equal)."
Still, the fact that plus-one is not off the table should give playoff supporters hopes. There is the general feeling that ABC will find a way to make the new BCS work financially. ABC/ESPN has the rights to 25 of the 29 bowl games. That cache means a lot to advertisers.
But, while improved, the advertising market is still relatively soft. That's how networks make back their money after they pay those rights fees.
ABC has an exclusive 90-day negotiating window with the BCS later this year. If it can't come to an agreement, CBS or Fox might get involved.
Even then, to get maximum value the commissioners would have to convince the presidents that the plus-one model would work.
Fox isn't a likely partner because it has the big-ticket NASCAR contract. If the contract is split, sources say the likely partner is CBS. The network has a good relationship with the SEC.
"I think Weiberg is pushing to take it to bid," the source said. "The big problem has been the Pac-10."
The Rose Bowl, and therefore by extension the Pac-10, is against a plus-one model because it is their perception that the Granddaddy of Them All would be devalued. In essence, the Rose Bowl is loath to be perceived as a national semifinal game.
It might be unlikely that a plus-one model will be adopted, but if Delany can be turned, so can the whole BCS. Remember, it was at the Big Ten's urging that the Rose Bowl and Pac-10 got into the BCS six years ago.
"If Jim moves then the Pac-10 will have to move," the source said.
More hope for playoff supporters: It is known that Penn State president Graham Spanier, a member of the BCS presidents Oversight Committee, was at one time a playoff supporter. Weiberg could be being swayed by playoff proponents Bill Byrne (Texas A&M athletic director) and DeLoss Dodds (the Texas AD).
The point is, there could be some wiggle room for some kind of one-game playoff that would at least help improve the current system. Jim Wheeler once went to the NCAA with a $4 billion bid for the NCAA Tournament and a 16-team football playoff. He was turned down. His former company, Swiss-based ISL, has since gone bankrupt.
Wheeler is now director of Oklahoma's School of Business entrepreneurship center. But in the 1990s he was one of the most influential sports executives in the world working for the global marketing and licensing company.
"At the end of the day I think a playoff is best," Wheeler said. "Go to a 10-game season, everybody has a conference championship and you start games in mid-December and keep the bowl games. Basically move the BCS games up two weeks. I don't think we should have one more game or three more games after the current system."
The BCS presidents agree. Will the networks?
Quick Hits
- It's a pity that Conference USA is reaching its peak as a football and basketball power. The league is sending six teams to the NCAA Tournament this month. In the fall, Memphis, Louisville and TCU will trot out Top 25 football programs. The Horned Frogs challenged for a BCS berth last season. In 2005, eight schools leave the league for various points as part of the ACC-induced conference shakeup. The Big East is taking Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette, South Florida and DePaul. Charlotte and St. Louis are going to the Atlantic 10. TCU is going to the Mountain West.
- Florida running back Ciatrick Fason is saying he'll run for 1,800 yards this season. Sounds like more bluster from a kid in love with his skills. Going into last season only 32 players in I-A history had run for at least that many yards. Fason, a junior, has run for all of 610 yards in his two-year career. Plus, the Gators have been known to throw it a time or two. Fason might have to average 15 yards per carry to attain his goal.
- We were loved in Memphis last week for picking the Tigers No. 14 in the pre-spring Top 25. Another hottie to watch: Cal. Coach Jeff Tedford is the first Bears coach to win a combined 15 games in his first two seasons since Pappy Waldorf in 1947-48. Sixteen starters return from an 8-6 Insight Bowl champion team. The Pac-10's Next Big Thing, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, is sitting out the spring recovering from knee surgery.
- Bill Walsh has returned to Stanford as a fundraiser. A skeptic might wonder how long it is before Walsh is asked to salvage the program as coach for a year or two if Buddy Teevens doesn't start improving.
- The NCAA and American Football Coaches Association have joined forces to file suit against the parents of former Alabama and Tennessee player Kenny Smith Jr. The suit seeks to protect the comments of Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer to the NCAA in the Alabama investigation. The NCAA is arguing that Fulmer's statements are protected from libel and defamation action even though they might be false. The NCAA is essentially asking the courts for immunity for coaches in giving information to the association. Smith's parents have asked Fulmer for a retraction which, under Alabama law, is required before filing suit. The NCAA/AFCA suit is believed to be the first of its kind.
- The Cotton Bowl has let it be known it wants into the BCS, but only if Jerry Jones builds his proposed 100,000-seat domed stadium for the Cowboys.
