Notebook: Utah might be in for BCS heartache

National feature | Notebook

Hands by your sides, Salt Lake City. Holster those high fives.

Alex Smith and the Utes might be left outside looking in on the BCS. (AP)

Things can only get worse for BCS darling Utah. This is not to say Utah can't be the first mid-major to get to a BCS bowl. It debuted at No. 7 on Monday, the highest ranking for such a school in the initial BCS standings.

A top six finish guarantees it a BCS berth, most likely in the Fiesta Bowl. A top 12 BCS finish only qualifies it for BCS at-large status.

That's where bowl politics as usual come into play. If Utah only qualifies, it more than likely will miss out on the BCS, even if it is undefeated. It has to do with the selection process and, really, Utah's image as a major-college outsider.

A quick explanation:

• Six of the eight BCS slots are taken up by the BCS conference champions. That leaves two at-large spots. The Fiesta Bowl is pretty much the only landing place for Utah as an at-large. The Rose Bowl is committed to the Pac-10 and Big Ten. The Orange Bowl has the BCS title game. The Sugar Bowl has the SEC champion or probably the next-best SEC team if the champion is in the Orange Bowl.
• The Fiesta gets the Big 12 champion. It will pick second in the BCS if it loses Oklahoma to the Orange Bowl. Third, behind the Rose and Sugar, if it doesn't. Either way it would take a BCS-eligible Big 12 team or major-college at-large team. It has to. As we will explain below, it can't afford to take Utah first.
• The drag on the system is the Big East champion -- most likely West Virginia, though Boston College, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are still candidates. West Virginia would be somewhat palatable if it was unbeaten but it already has lost to Virginia Tech. Contenders BC (4-2), Pittsburgh (4-2) and Syracuse (3-3) are even less desirable to the major bowls.
• The Fiesta Bowl picks last (eighth) this year with its second selection. More reason to protect itself with a big-time first pick. The Sugar Bowl picks seventh. It's a safe assumption that the Sugar is not going to want the Big East champion to match against the SEC champion.
• That leaves the Fiesta having to take the Big East champion. And more reason why it has to protect itself up front with a Big 12 or other at-large pick as mentioned above. Utah vs. West Virginia, Pittsburgh or Boston College just does not stir the blood. Utah vs. Texas is a good game but for that to happen, the Fiesta would have to pick Utah first and hope a team like Texas (or Purdue or Michigan or Florida State) is available for the last pick. That's not going to happen.

One bowl insider called all this a "reasonable theory" and cautioned that a lot can happen between now and then. But on the surface it looks like more business as usual than a breakthrough by Utah.

Utah's best hope lies with two or three teams above it losing. It also has to hope that Cal doesn't get selected by the Rose Bowl, taking up one of those at-large spots (if Southern California plays in the Orange Bowl).

Even then, Utah would have to hope that Florida State (5-1) doesn't reach No. 3 or No. 4 in the BCS, where it would automatically qualify as an at-large. That would mean both at-large spots would be spoken for by teams with one loss.

When told of this scenario, Utah athletic director Chris Hill stuck to the one-game-at-a-time response. Coach Urban Meyer already has been there. In 2002 his Bowling Green team went 9-3 and was left out of the bowls altogether.

"I've kind of been burned," he said. "I do believe this is a little different. The best thing we get out of it is recruiting. We'll obviously have this on every note card (No. 7 in BCS) going out this week to recruits. It's an honor, that's about it."

More BCS concern

Who checks the BCS math once it is spewed forth by the computer lords?

No one, really. The BCS commissioners leave it up to the individual computer jockeys to check their work. That's a concern because Wes Colley of the Atlanta-based Colley Matrix admitted that he inadvertently left out the Michigan State-Illinois game of Oct. 9 during a dry run earlier this month. It didn't matter then but it could in the coming weeks.

"This is why we do the trial run," Colley said. "I'm the only one who releases the full (math) system. It's important to the credibility of the system (to show) that I'm not biased."

Some of the computer nerds consider their math intellectual property. They are worried that if they release their formulas, someone else could steal it, start their own rating system and profit from it.

Yeah, we can't believe that either.

On another subject, Colley is also concerned about Wisconsin. He says that if the Badgers -- who debuted this week at No. 6 in the BCS -- and No. 1 USC are the only two remaining undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, there is no assurance that the Badgers will play for the national championship.

That means Wisconsin from the mighty Big Ten could be edged out by a one-loss team, most likely No. 5 Florida State (5-1). The Badgers' strength of schedule down the stretch is a concern -- Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State and Iowa. Those teams are a combined 16-10.

Florida State has Wake Forest, Maryland, Duke, North Carolina State and Florida left. Those teams are a combined 15-15.

"The question is can Wisconsin stay No. 2 if USC is the only (other) undefeated team?" Colley said.

Boss sighting

Joe Dailey might not be able to hit the broad side of a silo for Nebraska, but he knows his icons.

Turns out that while growing up the Nebraska quarterback from Freehold, N.J., worked for a nursery that delivered trees to Bruce Springsteen's home. Freehold is probably known only for being where Springsteen lives.

"He's a good guy, a lot different than people think," said Dailey, who worked at the nursery from sixth grade to eighth grade. "A lot of people don't recognize him. He's kind of a tiny guy, has a beard growing, just a down-to-earth, blue-collar guy. That's what he is."

Quick Hits

• Florida Atlantic (5-0) plays its first home game this week against Louisiana-Monroe. Flying all over the country -- including the Hawaii game -- doesn't seem to matter. The Owls have won 10 straight road games. Part of that road warrior mentality is by design. Coach Howard Schnellenberger wanted it that way so games could be televised into South Florida. Last week's trip to Northern Colorado completed a five-game roadie in which the Owls traveled 17,403 miles.
• Yes, that was Tommy Lee marching with the Nebraska band on Saturday. The old Mötley Crüe burnout is in town filming a reality show and actually is auditioning for the drum line -- while taking a chemistry class. The Huskers have apparently cracked down on those with shady pasts. If a guy of Lee's character was around during the Tom Osborne regime he'd be starting at I-back.
• Wonder why the Big East keeps getting made fun of on the playground? Rutgers and Temple combined for nine turnovers in a 16-6 Scarlet Knights victory. Temple missed two field goals and there were no touchdowns until Rutgers scored late to wrap it up.
• How the boring have fallen: Ohio State is 0-3 in the Big Ten for the first time since 1988. The offense is ranked 111th out of 117 Division I-A teams. Ohio State received no votes in the AP poll. But at least one coach voted for the Luckeyes in the coaches poll. They had two points this week. Another reason the coaches should disclose their ballots. Ranking Ohio State at this point is ridiculous.
• In case you missed it, that was a 92-point turnaround by Nebraska. The Huskers rebounded from a 60-point loss to Texas Tech by beating Baylor by 32. Does that mean Texas Tech is 92 points better than Baylor? We'll find out Nov. 6 when the Bears come to Lubbock.
• Alabama is in line for its first bowl since 2001 (Dennis Franchione's first year). The Tide registered an impressive 27-3 victory over Southern Miss and have Tennessee this week in what is being called the American Bar Association Classic. Figure that out one, Phil Fulmer. A win there and the Tide become bowl eligible. In the past two games against Southern Miss, Alabama has thrown a total of 16 passes, due to assorted injuries. Let's call it what it is for once: Good coaching.

Who said it?

"I have coached great football players for 55 years. If I tell you that Michael Robinson is one of the best football players I have ever coached and one of the best in the country, don't question me." -- A testy Joe Paterno this week, referring to one of his quarterbacks.