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Dennis Dodd

Quirk could be the difference between Orange, feeling blue

By | SportsLine.com Senior Writer

National feature | Notebook

The Citadel can wreck Auburn's national championship hopes.

That is, if you believe a weak non-conference schedule is one of the few ways to separate the top three teams in the country -- Southern California, Oklahoma and Auburn.

Tommy Tuberville's Auburn Tigers might be left out of the Orange Bowl mix.  (AP) 
Tommy Tuberville's Auburn Tigers might be left out of the Orange Bowl mix. (AP) 
In addition to the I-AA Bulldogs, Auburn also played Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana Tech. Those three teams are 181st, 116th and 86th in the latest Sagarin ratings. Five of the six BCS computers take into account, negatively, games played against I-AA teams.

That is, by far, the worst non-conference schedule of the three contenders.

Other than that, there's really little point to arguing one school's merits over the others.

We're talking three schools with combined football revenues of $98 million. Bob Stoops, Tommy Tuberville and Pete Carroll make a combined $5 million per season. Each roster is populated with All-Americans. There is the small matter of 14 national championships between the three.

It is adding up to an uncomfortable BCS first -- more than two undefeated major-college teams fighting for a championship berth.

So who deserves to be in the Orange Bowl if all three win out? Instead of answering that question, ask Les Robinson, The Citadel's athletic director. He's the one who was called by Auburn after Bowling Green wanted out of its game with the Tigers to play ... Oklahoma.

Rating the Contenders
Team Sagarin ratings of top three non-conference schedules
USC Va. Tech (17)*, N. Dame (26), BYU (39), Colo. St. (69)
Oklahoma Oregon (40), Bowling Green (47)*, Houston (106)
Auburn La. Tech (86), La.-Monroe (116), The Citadel (181)
* - currently ranked in the Top 25

Funny how things work out: Bowling Green lost the opener in Norman 40-24. The Falcons now are 8-2 now and ranked No. 25 this week, enhancing Oklahoma's schedule. Their athletic director, Paul Krebs, was a former ticket director at Oklahoma. The Citadel is 2-7 with its 33-3 loss to Auburn on Sept. 25. Auburn got its easy victory but the cost might be much more than the $400,000 guarantee it paid The Citadel.

Watching three major-college programs scramble for two spots is like a version of multi-million dollar musical chairs. Like a lot of folks, Robinson wants to see the system changed.

"I prayed for it to be messed up," Robinson said of the BCS. "I wanted the worst possible scenario. It's ludicrous."

Not because Robinson is against major-college athletics. He coached North Carolina State basketball for six years and later was a member of the powerful NCAA men's basketball committee. In football, he sees through the hypocrisy of the BCS presidents in stonewalling even a "plus-one" model championship game.

The tentative plan is to have five BCS bowls beginning in 2006. The 1-2 teams from the regular season will advance to the championship game to be played the second week of January. A more sensible plus-one would require only a slight adjustment -- two winners from the previous week's bowls selected to advance to the championship game.

No way, say the presidents.

"(The presidents) are adamantly opposed to an NFL-style playoff that would lead to, or be seen as, that kind of outcome for postseason collegiate football," BCS presidents chairman Dave Frohnmayer said this week.

Frohnmayer wants to "preserve the academic calendar." In other words, no additional second-semester football.

When he heard that, Robinson fired back.

"It's the biggest joke," he said. "The media has dropped the ball on this. (Impact on) class attendance? The presidents should be ashamed of golf and tennis, then ... to say that's a big deal is ludicrous."

Robinson would like to remind presidents that basketball is a two-semester sport played during the Christmas holidays and on weeknights. College baseball, if proposed legislation goes through, is going to be played into July. Frohnmayer's peers are about to approve legislation that would establish a permanent 12th regular-season game.

Where's the student-athlete welfare and academic calendar preservation in that?

The only solution for Robinson and legions of Joe Six Packs is some kind of playoff. Short of that, Auburn's problem is that, if there is a difference between the three teams, it might be the Tigers' non-con.

BCS expert Jerry Palm has said that Oklahoma should be able to hold on to the No. 2 spot, in part, because of how the computers view Auburn's non-conference schedule.

Still, The Citadel is welcomed on I-A schedules because of its mission as a military institution. Robinson routinely arranges I-A games because it helps recruiting.

"Three kids at Auburn walked up and shook my hand 1½ hours before kickoff," Robinson said. "I'm pulling like heck against USC and Oklahoma because I want Auburn to win."

Auburn made the scheduling switch not knowing there would be an epic fight for a title shot.

"I would counsel, as I do to my own students, have patience," Frohnmayer said. "Let's see how the points stack up after all the returns are in."

Said Robinson, "That's another way of saying, 'We hope and pray with all our hearts one of them loses.'"

Comparison of USC, Oklahoma and Auburn
Category USC Okla. Auburn
Scoring Defense 2nd (11.6) 14th (16.1) 1st (9.3)
Scoring Differential +25.5 +19.5 +24.9
Total Offense 15th (434.8) 10th (469.6) 19th (431.3)
Rushing Offense 33rd (179.5) 19th (204.3) 20th (201.4)
Passing Offense 26th (255.3) 23rd (259.3) 43rd (229.9)
Total Defense 6th (266.4) 23rd (316) 8th (266.1)
Rushing Defense 2nd (69.2) 13th (101.5) 12th (100)
Passing Defense 36th (197.2) 65th (214.5) 8th (166.1)
NCAA Strength of Schedule 36th 14th 21st
Sagarin Strength of Schedule 8th 14th 91st
Palm Strength of Schedule 22nd 4th 41st
Note: BCS expert Jerry Palm rates teams' 2004 schedule using the BCS 2003 strength of schedule component that was dropped this year.
 
 
 
 
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