I'm coming off a dismal week, where I went 6-14 against the line to drop me to 86-85 against the spread for the season. The good: picking Baylor to blast Kansas. The bad: picking UCLA to hang with Oregon. The ugly: picking Nebraska to handle Minnesota. Here are this week's guesses.
Arizona State 42, Washington State 34: ASU is just 2-10 outside its home state in November and December but these Sun Devils won't wilt in the chiller temp. Connor Halliday's issues with throwing picks and a shaky secondary will costs the Cougars late against Taylor Kelly.
South Carolina 17, Mississippi State 6: The Bulldogs have won three out of their last four, but none of those was on the road. MSU's only played one on the road this season, and lost that one at Auburn.
Wisconsin 28, Iowa 20: Both teams run the ball well. The Badgers run it better, and with stud Melvin Gordon they have a more potent ground attack. The Badgers also have the better run D, holding opponents to 2.8 ypc.
Michigan State 17, Michigan 10: The Spartans have the best D in the country, and even though the Wolverines are more talented than pretty much everyone they've faced on offense, MSU still should be up to the challenge from its arch-rival.
Notre Dame 35, Navy 10: Brian Kelly's team is still pretty banged up but Navy has really struggled on the road, losing its last three games away from home against three teams nowhere near as stout as the Irish.
Clemson 38, Virginia 14: Mike London's team has been in a free fall, dropping five in a row, and none of those losses were against teams as talented as the one it visits this weekend.
Florida State 45, Miami (Fla.) 21: The Noles have made a habit of blowing people out by halftime, while the Canes have struggled in the first halves the past month and UM's D doesn't have enough difference-makers to slow down Jameis Winston and company on the road.
Fresno State 41, Nevada 17: Brian Polian's team lost a close one to UNLV while FSU barely survived against San Diego State. The Bulldogs should have less trouble in this one facing the MWC's No. 12 D (496 ypg allowed).