I'm coming off a decent week, going 11-7 against the spread, moving me to 109-111 against the number for the season. The Good: Picking Southern California to give Stanford problems. The Bad: Picking South Carolina to cruise past Florida. The Ugly: Picking Texas Tech to keep it close against Baylor. Here are this week's guesses:
Central Florida 30, Rutgers 10: Rutgers is backsliding, having lost three of its past four and averaging just 16 ppg in those four games. Go with the better team, which should ride the home-crowd energy that gets perked up by the national Thursday night stage to an easy victory.
Kansas State 14, Oklahoma 10: Bob Stoops' team leaves Norman for the fifth time this season (OU is 2-2 away from home). And RB Damien Williams and WR Lacoltan Bester, two of the Sooners' more dangerous weapons, are suspended for this game. That doesn't bode well against a Wildcats team surging with four straight wins.
Michigan State 17, Northwestern 3: The Wildcats have been free-falling, having dropped six in a row, including the past four by eight points or less. I doubt they have enough juice to overcome the fierce MSU D and an improving Spartans ground attack behind Jeremy Langford, who has five consecutive 100-yard rushing games.
Clemson 59, The Citadel 7: The Tigers have averaged over 51 ppg since getting blasted by Florida State a month ago. All three of those opponents were a lot more talented than a 5-6 FCS team.
South Carolina 35, Coastal Carolina 14: Steve Spurrier's squad had all it could handle against a struggling Florida program. While I'm not picking a huge upset here, expect Joe Moglia's 10-1 team to hang around and be competitive for the first half.
Alabama 55, Chattanooga 3: Don't expect any letup from the Tide against a pretty good FCS team.
Ohio State 63, Indiana 14: No one is scoring more points in the first quarter than the Buckeyes (19.2 ppg). Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde shouldn't have any trouble this week as they face the Big Ten's worst D (39 ppg).
Texas A&M 41, LSU 38: John Chavis' D gave some Johnny Manziel some problems in the second half last season, relying more on a three-man front. Look for an improved Johnny Football and Mike Evans to have answers in a shootout in some sloppy conditions in Baton Rouge.
Florida State 68, Idaho 3: Despite all the attention around Jameis Winston, the Noles still won't have any trouble dealing with the undermanned Vandals.
Missouri 27, Ole Miss 21: James Franklin is back in the lineup after being out for since Oct. 12. That will help on the road against a Rebels team quietly having a nice season. I'm tempted to go with the home team, but think the Tigers' huge wideouts will be the difference.
Southern California 28, Colorado 21: Ed Orgeron's team is coming off a huge high and is mindful not to get caught in a trap game at CU. It's still likely that the Trojans will come out flatter than they have been and the Buffs are improving.