I'm coming off a decent week, where I went 11-9 against the spread to put me at 120-120 for the season against the number. The Good: Picking Arizona State to handle UCLA. The Bad: Picking Texas A&M to beat LSU. The Ugly: Picking Toledo to hang around with Northern Illinois. Here are this week's guesses:
LSU 42, Arkansas 10: Bret Bielema's team is averaging 12.5 ppg in the past two months (going 0-6) and going into Tiger Stadium against a talented LSU team sounds ominous, especially with the way the Tigers backs are running the ball and knowing how undermanned the Hog LBs are.
Fresno State 45, San Jose State 40: Tough task for the Spartans to try and get to six wins, especially after falling in three OTs last week against Navy. My hunch is David Fales can keep SJSU in this one by rising to the challenge of facing Derek Carr. Fales threw for almost 500 yards and five TDs (and no INTs) in a win over Wyoming and its stud QB Brett Smith, but Carr has better WRs and Fresno State will still get the W.
Oregon 45, Oregon State 27: Both teams are back-sliding, but the Ducks are more talented and balanced on both sides of the ball. Expect Oregon to dodge losing three of four, although the Beavers should do some damage against a Ducks defense allowing 30 ppg in the last three games.
Duke 21, North Carolina 20: Quietly the Tar Heels have rattled off five wins in a row, while the Blue Devils have won seven straight. I'll go with the visitors, 4-0 on the road, finding a way to scrap out one more W.
Florida State 48, Florida 6: Will Muschamp and the Gators have been free-falling. Florida is headed for significant staff changes and is coming off the most embarrassing loss in school history, and now they have to deal with a rampaging FSU squad. The rout's on by the second quarter.
Michigan State 24, Minnesota 6: As solid as the Gophers have been, they don't have enough firepower to challenge the ferocious Spartans defense and Michigan State's offense has started to emerge now that Connor Cook has stepped up to complement a potent ground attack.
Ohio State 31, Michigan 21: The combo of Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have run over just about everyone in the Big Ten in the past two months and I expect the Buckeyes to take it to the Wolverines on the road, although I think Michigan will keep it interesting for three quarters.
USC 30, UCLA 24: A young and patched-up UCLA offensive line was overwhelmed last week against Arizona State and now it has to deal with another talented defensive line at USC. The fired-up Trojans, primed for revenge after losing last season to the Bruins, should make it seven in a row in Pac-12 play.
Wisconsin 42, Penn State 21: The Badgers are 6-0 at home this season and have crushed their opponents by an average of 35 ppg. They've also only allowed three TDs at Camp Randall but in Christian Hackenberg and the gifted Penn State receivers, it won't be quite as much of a cakewalk.
Alabama 23 Auburn 17: Nick Saban has the deeper roster and more big-game experience, led by AJ McCarron, but Gus Malzahn has a stud tailback in Tre Mason and a really talented crew of defensive linemen, who should keep this one tight for four quarters.
Clemson 23, South Carolina 17: I know that Dabo Swinney has had all sorts of trouble with Steve Spurrier's team, but my hunch is Tajh Boyd and the speedy Tiger wideouts will rise up for a big performance.
Stanford 17, Notre Dame 6: The Irish have sputtered quite a bit this season, especially on the road where they're 2-2 with the two Ws over opponents that are a combined 3-19. Stanford will be too physical and too strong for Notre Dame this time around.
Texas A&M 41, Missouri 38: Johnny Manziel played the worst game of his career last week. Even with a banged-up thumb and a shaky defense, I don't see Manziel or the Aggies losing two in a row even though the Tigers do have an excellent D-line rotation.
Arizona State 35, Arizona 21: A tandem of B.J. Denker and Ka'Deem Carey gave Oregon fits last week, but my hunch is ASU will be able to slow down Denker some and the Sun Devils attack will be sharper than the Ducks were last week on the road.