I'm coming off a decent week, going 10-7 against the spread to put me at three games over .500 for the season against the number. The Good: Picking Michigan to give Ohio State problems. The Bad: Picking LSU to dominate Arkansas. The Ugly: Picking Clemson to beat South Carolina. Here are this week's guesses:
Louisville 31, Cincinnati 30: Tommy Tuberville's history of upsetting favorites is great, especially top-five teams. Of course, Louisville isn't quite that far up the polls. The UC offense has been sharp, but I'll go with Teddy Bridgewater to get U of L to escape this one with a W.
Northern Illinois 38, Bowling Green 28: Two potent offenses meet for the MAC title. NIU has the best player on the field and I don't see BGSU derailing Jordan Lynch.
Oklahoma State 28, Oklahoma 24: The Cowboys are rolling now. OU has been shaky playing away from Norman and I think the trend continues in Stillwater.
Central Florida 20, SMU 9: It has been a rough season for June Jones with the Mustangs and even if Garrett Gilbert can play -- he's questionable -- Blake Bortles and crew should be able to handle them.
Baylor 38, Texas 20: Both teams are banged up. Then again at this stage of the season, most teams are. The Bears are more explosive and even though Bryce Petty's play has tailed off some in the past month, my hunch is Baylor at home is too much for the Horns.
Arizona State 20, Stanford 14: No one has been hotter than the Sun Devils over the past seven games, with ASU averaging more than 44 points and winning by an average of more than 23 points. Derek Mason has the toughest D the Sun Devils have seen, but I feel like this time Mike Norvell will have a few better answers for the Cardinal.
Auburn 23, Missouri 21: I feel like I've picked against both schools for most of the second half of the season. Sorry, Auburn, I'm picking for you this time. It'll seem like an Auburn home game in there and after the way the Tigers have won the past few games, I can't pick against them now.
Florida State 45, Duke 14: David Cutcliffe's team has run off eight wins in a row, but the Noles are simply too talented for the Blue Devils to pull off the shocking upset.
Ohio State 14, Michigan State 10: Sticking with the old rule: I am not picking against Urban Meyer in a Big Ten game until someone beats him first. The Spartans have a fierce D, but this is a dangerous backfield they'll be coping with.
Fresno State 35, Utah State 28: Without Chuckie Keeton, USU is still getting good QB play from Darrel Garretson, but I think they would need Chuckie magic to beat Derek Carr in a shootout.