Through the first week of bowl picks, I'm 4-4 against the number, keeping me at five over .500 against the spread for the year. Here is the latest batch of bowl guesses:
Pinstripe: Notre Dame 30, Rutgers 10: The Irish are bigger and more physical and should wear down RU. The Scarlet Knights haven't beaten anyone of note all season with their best W coming at 5-7 SMU. This one shouldn't be close unless ND has a turnover meltdown.
Belk: North Carolina 27, Cincinnati 21: Bearcat QB Brendon Kay has had a terrific season for UC, but I also like how dual-threat QB Marquise Williams has emerged for the Tar Heels. I was torn on this game, but playing the hunch that a UNC team that comes from a tougher league and won five of its final six will come in focused and execute better. Then again, the Heels most impressive win this season was against a 7-5 BC team.
Russell Athletic: Louisville 35, Miami 27: Teddy Bridgewater and a bunch of his teammates face their hometown team. Bridgewater and his receivers should be a little too much for an underachieving Canes D that is tied for 87th in the country for most plays of 10-plus yards or more allowed.
Wings: Kansas State 20, Michigan 10: Bill Snyder has lost his last four bowl appearances, but I think the solid K-State D (No. 35 in scoring defense and No. 24 in pass efficiency defense) will force some mistakes from young Shane Morris filling in for injured Devin Gardner at QB. Only two teams in the country (Iowa and FSU) have surrendered fewer plays of 10 yards or more than the Wildcats.