Bracketology/Bowls Expert

BCS/playoff projections: Quiet week, but still a change

It was a relatively quiet week in college football. There weren't any significant upsets this week, although Michigan got a big scare from Akron. Two of the three ranked teams that lost were beaten by higher-ranked teams. The other loser was Wisconsin, which lost at Arizona State in a bizarre ending that saw both the Badgers and refs screw up a chance for Wisconsin to kick a game-winning field goal.

A quiet week didn't keep me from making a change to the BCS portion of the bowl projections. Notre Dame's defensive problems are bigger than I originally thought. Giving up 41 to Michigan in Ann Arbor is one thing, but giving up 24 to a Purdue offense that only managed to score 20 against Cincinnati and Indiana State combined is a problem. It's not going to be easy for the Irish to get enough wins (at least 9, maybe 10) to qualify for the BCS. So, at least for now, the Irish are out and Oregon is in.

The problem for the Ducks isn't being good enough. Clearly they are, even if they lose to Stanford, which is the basis of this projection. The problem is that they wouldn't not be expected to travel well to Miami, which is the farthest point in the US from Eugene (and that's including Hawaii). Notre Dame, or possibly Oklahoma, even if lower rated, might be considered better options for the bowl because of larger fan bases and closer proximity. Also, Notre Dame is Notre Dame.

There are no changes to this week's if-we-had-a-playoff projection:

Sugar Bowl: 1. Alabama vs 4. Clemson

Rose Bowl: 2. Oregon vs 3. Ohio State

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Michigan

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs LSU

Chick-Fil-A: Georgia vs Louisville

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