This is the kind of thing you have to say early, because once it gets late, it's too, um, late.
So I'm saying it right now. The best player to come out of the 2008 NBA Draft won't be Derrick Rose. Won't be Michael Beasley, either.
It'll be O.J. Mayo, and frankly, it might not be close.
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| Memphis' Chris Wallace is all smiles after acquiring O.J. Mayo in a trade with Minnesota. (Getty Images) |
They were the same player in college, Rose and Williams. Both, according to pre-draft measurements, were in the 6-foot-1 range, explosive guards who finished above the rim. As freshmen they averaged less than 15 points per game. Williams handed out more assists (6.5 to 4.6 for Rose) and shot slightly better on 3-pointers. Rose shot slightly better overall.
One huge difference is Williams spent two more seasons at Duke. And even with that additional seasoning, he put up 9.5 ppg and 4.7 apg as an NBA rookie. Those were his numbers in 2002-03 after being drafted No. 2 overall by the Bulls, the same Bulls who drafted Rose No. 1 overall six years later.
Jay Williams never got a second season to improve on those NBA numbers. Maybe he would have. Surely he would have. Surely he would have become a solid NBA starter with occasional glimpses of greatness, a strong and explosive athlete limited only by his mediocre shooting range. Excuse me, I'm lost here. Am I still speaking about Williams? Or Rose? No matter. They're the same player.
Neither of whom is as good as Mayo.
This isn't an easy position to take, and not simply because Mayo wasn't part of the pre-draft conversation about which player should be selected No. 1 overall. Some experts said Rose. Some said Beasley. Nobody said Mayo. So I'm sort of alone here.
More than that, this isn't an easy position to take because Mayo isn't the most likeable guy in the world. He was either the most manipulating high school recruit since Sebastian Telfair, or the most manipulated recruit of all time. Before college he bounced from West Virginia to Kentucky to Cincinnati back to West Virginia as he catered to the whims of then-Cincinnati coach Bob Huggins and then-guardian Dwain Barnes -- or as they catered to him. At Southern California he was used for financial gain by Rodney Guillory, or Mayo was a willing partner. Whatever the case, his amateur career was an absolute joke, somewhere between comedic and criminal. Up to now, O.J. Mayo as a person has been sort of pathetic.
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But O.J. Mayo as a player? He was very good at USC, and in the NBA he's going to be fabulous.
Mayo has a lot of Brandon Roy in him. They're different players with very different skill sets, but they have one exceptional thing in common: The better the game, the better they become.
When Roy was at Washington, Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar told me he would be the rare player who improved in the NBA. The caliber of talent around him, Romar said, would lift Roy to new heights. Romar was right. Roy wasn't picked until sixth overall in the 2006 draft, behind lesser pros like Adam Morrison and Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams. Roy was drafted No. 6 by Timberwolves vice president Kevin McHale, who had no idea what he had and traded Roy to Portland for Randy Foye and stuff.
Two years later, Mayo was drafted third overall by those same Timberwolves and that same VP. McHale again had no idea what he had, because he sent Mayo to Memphis for Kevin Love and stuff.
(Is there a worse NBA executive than McHale? The Celtics are champions because of him. Portland is a contender because of him. Memphis just got a lot better because of him. Minnesota sucks.)
Mayo is going to be an NBA superstar. Why are great players great? Lots of reasons, but at the end of the day, it's this: When they shoot the ball, it tends to go in. Mayo is the same way. You can look at his stats at USC and say I'm an idiot -- he shot 44.2 percent from the floor overall, 40.9 percent on 3-pointers -- but give it a few years and you'll see what I'm saying. Mayo has the guts to shoot the most difficult shots and the ability to make them. Of all the players in the past decade who turned pro out of high school or spent one year of servitude in college, only LeBron James was better than Mayo at making difficult shots look easy.
Beasley makes the game look easy, too. I'm curious about what kind of pro he'll be. At the low end of the spectrum he could be a better version of Rodney White, the incredibly skilled power forward from Charlotte who wasn't hungry enough to make it in the NBA. At the high end, who knows? Beasley's college production suggests NBA superstardom, but I have my doubts. Not big enough. Not mature enough. But we'll see.
No doubts on Mayo. None. He was a walking carnival in high school and college, but he'll be just another clown in the NBA circus, which means he won't have to deal with the off-court scrutiny he has faced since he was 13. He'll fit right in, and be allowed to work on his game. And nobody in the 2008 NBA Draft has more game than O.J. Mayo.
