AFL's demise a lesson to those coining 'the next big thing'
To the consternation of apparently nobody, the Arena Football League is, as the Italians like to say, mort'.
You know. Dead. Finished. No more. Part of the null set. No longer among us.
In short, another abject lesson for the "next big thing" crowd.
Not that this represented a surprise, mind you. The AFL closed up for a year to get its financial house in order (re: look for advertisers and sponsors), couldn't, and finally gave up Monday, according to sources. (And while we're at it, what's the current market for AFL sources?)
|
|
| Even with the influx of celebrities like Jon Bon Jovi, the AFL couldn't survive. (Getty Images) |
Now while there will be dire predictions aimed at most of the women's professional leagues (and there already have, to be honest), a few suspicious looks at MLS and even some big-box-league teams like the Phoenix Coyotes or Memphis Grizzlies, that's not the lesson to be imparted today.
It is this: Once upon the time, Arena Football was "the next big thing," a brilliant idea for people who liked football, couldn't buy an NFL team or a BCS conference university, but had access to a municipal arena. It was never a real moneymaker, but for people who like to declare "next big things," it did what American soccer couldn't at the time -- keep the doors open.
But it was never an actual "next big thing" at all. It was a niche sport, which is a half-step up from a cult sport. Money was cheap, attention spans were short, and fans popped in and out of Arena Football games the same way they popped in and out of indoor lacrosse leagues, roller hockey leagues, the Canadian Football League in America, skateboard/BMX trick sports and the modest start of MLS.
None of them ever caught on -- that is, "expanded the brand," a phrase we can all agree is stupid beyond stupid. In fact, with the singular exception of NASCAR, which did expand and then flattened out, they all either leveled off quickly or just expired. It is the caveat that must be attached to mixed martial arts, the next "next big thing." There is a ceiling, you've hit it, so be happy with the market share you have now, because nothing is permanent.
That is the real lesson of the AFL's demise, and a lesson that the yahoos running the UFL will learn sooner rather than later. We actually do have only so much RAM to donate to our pastimes, no matter what the technology allows, and our instinct is not to find new sports to like, but new ways to immerse ourselves in old sports.
Hence, the NFL combine and draft, the MLB Fantasy boom that spawned the boom in real-sports-pretend-league gambling opportunities, and the NFL/MLB/NBA/NHL and big college TV networks. Old pastimes retooling for the new times.
The NASCAR exception isn't really one, either. It grew, but it is by no means a contender for big-sport status. Golf is broken down into Tiger and non-Tiger events. Tennis remains four events and then an indistinct blob that almost nobody bothers with, soccer in America is growing (as opposed to American soccer, which is not) simply because we grabbed an access pass from the international TV packages.
And MMA, which is trying hardest to be the "next big thing," simply siphoned off boxing and wrestling fans and yelled that it is the next big thing -- cockfighting with humans. MMA has grabbed a piece of those existing markets but not created one of its own, which means that it isn't really the next big thing, but a different slice on an already existing pie. It still means more money for Dana White and his benefactors than they had before, but it isn't the "next big thing."
Point is, kids, there is no "next big thing." Even Twitter, which most standard-issue 17-year-olds have accurately assessed as "something the elderly do to seem cool, is a short-lived fad that the large percentage of users tire of quickly.
That's the lesson of Arena Football's demise. There is for all new sports or new twists on old ones a brief window of profitability through novelty, but they are built on the same notion -- the old-school advertisers want to be part of the "next big thing." Those advertisers are now getting the sense that the returns on "next big things" are fleeting, and often illusory. So they pull out, hold their cash awhile, and see when times get better if they can get in on the NFL, MLB or NCAA gravy trains.
It is simply the way of things, even at a time when we think the world is in upheaval. When an NFL team is in danger of folding, when MLB speaks of franchise contraction in such a way that doesn't make us clutch our sides and laugh, then we'll say there's room for a "next big thing." Until then, we're still at the big-table kids-table stage of our sporting development, and the Arena Football League came closer to bridging that gap than any other sport.
That is, until it croaked. And there is no lesson quite like that one.
Ray Ratto is a columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle.
