Leave it to the fools to question Howard's extension
The Philadelphia Phillies just locked up Ryan Howard for the next six years, rewarding not only Howard but also themselves -- considering they scouted, drafted, signed and developed him -- while keeping in place the best nucleus in baseball.
Naturally, people think this was a stupid move.
The Phillies aren't stupid. People are. People like Keith Law of ESPN.com, and anyone out there who thinks like Law -- like a lot of people on the message boards below this Danny Knobler blog item -- when Law wrote that "this is one of the worst extensions of its kind."
Who is Keith Law? He's a former MLB executive with the Toronto Blue Jays, which is like being a former NBA executive with the Los Angeles Clippers or a former NFL executive with the Cleveland Browns. Anyway, Keith Law isn't alone. There are lots of people pooh-poohing this extension, readers like some of you and media members like my friend Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post, who called the extension "puzzling" and noted that "such deals are how perennial champions turn themselves into bloated underachievers."
Law and Sheinin and, again, lots of people like them -- like Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, who was mostly neutral on the extension until he noted that players in Howard's age bracket typically aren't worth such a "bold bet" -- make their argument based on the numbers. Which is why I hate numbers, or why I hate numbers when they're applied as the end of a discussion. Numbers shouldn't end the discussion in baseball. They can help start it, and they should definitely help shape it, but they should never end it. Numbers are handy as a tool, but anyone who relies exclusively on a number is a, um, tool.
Here is the number cited by Law, Sheinin and Verducci: 30. That's the age of Ryan Howard. He's 30. There are other negative numbers used on Howard, like his strikeouts (191 whiffs per year from 2006-09) and his weight (255 pounds), but primarily the problem with Howard's extension is his age. He's 30, so when his five-year, $125 million extension ends after the 2016 season, he'll be 36.
Apparently that's old.
Never mind that, at this very moment, Paul Konerko of the Chicago White Sox is leading all of baseball in home runs at age 34. Or that Jorge Posada of the Yankees is among the American League's top 10 in several offensive categories, and off to the best start in his Hall of Fame career -- and he's 38. This April is a fluke for Posada, you say? Maybe. But I say this: Posada was better last season at age 37 (.285 batting average, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 0.885 OPS) than he was six years ago (.272, 21, 81, 0.881). And keep in mind that Posada spent most of those past six seasons at the same age Howard will be for the life of this new contract extension, at catcher. Howard plays first base. Anybody can play first base. Look at Adam Dunn.
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For every Konerko or Posada that suggests Howard will be just fine through the life of his contract, there is a case study that says Howard could fall apart. I get that. Mo Vaughn fell apart at age 32, and he played first base. Then again, Mo Vaughn was a short, little squatty dude whose body wasn't going to survive his violent swing for a decade. Howard is a large man, yes, but he has the graceful, fluid swing of Ken Griffey, and unlike Griffey, Howard won't be running into walls.
Point is, Howard is his own guy, and he deserves to be examined as such. Is he 30? Yeah, he's 30. But he hasn't been beating baseball's bushes since age 18 like most prospects, playing 150 games a year in the minors or majors for more than a decade. Howard went to college. He was nearly 22 when he signed. He has played just four full seasons in the bigs. His birth certificate says he's 30, but in terms of baseball mileage, he's in his mid-20s. Given all that, I don't need Keith Law telling me that "this is one of the worst extensions of its kind" because Howard, as Law points out, "has struggled to make contact against lefties."
Yeah, so? When he's not struggling to make contact against lefties, Ryan Howard has averaged 50 home runs and 143 RBI in his four full MLB seasons. That's Ruthian. But Keith Law is here to tell you the rest of the story: He has struggled to make contact against lefties. Keith Law probably would make this observation about a lottery winner: "Bad news -- imagine the income tax you have to pay on a $40 million payout."
Meantime, on planet earth, Ryan Howard is the best slugger in baseball not named Albert Pujols. And Albert Pujols is one of the best sluggers in baseball history. What does Howard's contract extension mean for Pujols? I don't know, and I don't care. Pujols isn't the issue here. Pujols damn sure isn't the Phillies' concern.
The Phillies won the World Series in 2008 and got back to the World Series in 2009. They are the hottest franchise in baseball, and Howard is an enormous reason. So is Chase Utley, who is signed through 2013. So is Jimmy Rollins, signed through 2011. And Shane Victorino, signed through 2012. And Jayson Werth, who becomes a free agent after this season but who, I am guessing, will be back. Why? Because the Phillies are the Yankees or the Red Sox of the National League, and Werth strikes me as a winner. Winners don't leave winners. Alex Rodriguez isn't a winner, which is why he left Seattle after a 91-win season in 2000 for the Rangers. A-Rod is a capitalist. Werth is a winner. Big difference.
The only legitimate question about the Phillies' contract extension for Howard is this one: Why now? Howard had two more years left on his previous contract, which means the Phillies had no obligation to do right by him. But here's the thing: Until now, the Phillies had never done right by Howard. Until now, the Phillies had, frankly, done wrong by him.
They couldn't come to terms with him after he won Rookie of the Year in 2005, so they renewed him for a paltry $355,000. They couldn't come to terms with him after he won the National League MVP in 2006, so they renewed him for an even more insulting $900,000. They couldn't come to terms after 2007, so Howard took them to arbitration and won $10 million. Last February, the Phillies bought out his final three years before free agency for $18 million per year. As astronomical as those numbers were, and are, the reality is this: From 2005-09, the Phillies played hardball with Howard. They did the least they could do.
Now they've done more. Howard had played the past several years in a bad mood. With this monster extension, the Phillies just made him happy.
They made lots of other people unhappy with it, but like I said earlier, lots of people are stupid.
This is one of the best extensions of its kind.
