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Gary Parrish weighs in regularly on what's happening in college basketball.
Take that, Julie Chen
Updated: Mar/29/2007 09:50 PM
ATLANTA -- I haven't done a mailbag in a few weeks because the NCAA Tournament is ongoing and I've spent my time doing other things. Get over it already. I promise to get back to answering e-mails with hilarious remarks soon -- or at least as soon as the season is complete. What's to come is the best mailbag ever. Just trust me. I won't let you down. (Don't worry, The Chad will be involved.) Anyway, on the flight to the Final Four this afternoon I skimmed some messages that are piling up. As always, it was a jolt to my self-esteem because of notes like this one from someone named Brendan. "I was just wondering how it feels to get taken to school by Julie Chen?" Yes, it's true. My bracket is awful. Julie Chen is destroying me. She's the host of CBS' The Early Show and a basketball expert in her on right. Don't be surprised if she replaces me on a full-time basis. Of all the celebrities and experts -- yes, I'm technically an "expert" -- Julie is in second place just behind Jason Segel of How I Met Your Mother. On the point system CBS SportsLine.com uses, they are both well ahead of me -- as is Alyson Hannigan. That's right, the Band Camp Girl is beating me, too. But I'm not as dumb as my bracket indicates. I want you to understand that. The truth is I tried to pick some upsets to be a little different, and it backfired. But to prove I'm really just a genius stuck with a bad bracket I'm going to take you back to a column I wrote in January stating there was parity in the middle of college basketball but elite teams at the top that would separate themselves. The column read. .. Before going any further I should identify the upper level, a group I believe includes Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, UCLA, Ohio State and Kansas. At this point, those are what I consider the top-tier teams. So I'd take any of them against anybody not in that group and feel good about my chances on a neutral court. It continued. .. The way the seven schools I labeled as elite are playing, they're likely to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. And though one or perhaps two will be upset given the nature of the Big Dance, I'm comfortable stating no less than five of the seven will make the Sweet 16, no less than two will make the Final Four and one of them will win the national title. I like those seven teams. I stand by them until further notice. Pretty impressive, huh? Of those seven teams six made the Elite Eight and three are in the Final Four. The only school of my group that didn't make the Elite Eight was Wisconsin, which fell apart when Brian Butch suffered a season-ending injury. In other words, I get a pass on the Badgers because their team changed when their lineup changed. So now all I need to complete my prediction is for anybody not named Georgetown to win the national title. As long as that happens I'm gold ... regardless of my bracket suggesting otherwise.
With Heath gone, Gillispie a logical pick for Arkansas
Updated: Mar/26/2007 04:51 PM
Early last November, I wrote a column about coaches who were scrutinized but in no danger of being fired because they were too good at what they do to be fired. I mentioned Bill Self (Kansas) and Bruce Weber (Illinois) and explained why they were not at risk of termination despite uneasy fan bases, and to highlight the point, I compared them to Dan Monson (Minnesota) and Stan Heath (Arkansas) while suggesting the latter two would be removed if they failed to meet expectations, no questions asked. The column went up around 11 a.m. My cell phone rang about an hour later. It was Stan Heath, and he wasn't pleased. Though calm and professional, Heath was clearly disturbed. He ran through his credentials, detailed how his teams had improved every year, noted his stellar recruiting class and swore he had been assured by the administration that his job was safe. I told him I had heard otherwise from sources in Arkansas, and we just agreed to disagree. But it was civil, and that was the end of the conversation. Anyway, the point is this: Either Arkansas administrators lied to Heath or Heath lied to me. We know that for certain now. Because on Monday, the fifth-year coach was fired following his second consecutive loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, creating a job on the market that should be attractive considering the talent Heath is leaving behind -- namely Patrick Beverley, Sonny Weems, Charles Thomas and ... everybody. Literally every member of the Arkansas team that won 21 games will return unless somebody transfers. Consequently, the Hogs will likely be the favorites to win the SEC Western Division regardless the coach, and a source close to the situation said Monday that fact actually figured into the school's decision to remove Heath now. According to the source, Arkansas officials didn't lose confidence in Heath as a recruiter or person, but as a bench coach. They simply no longer believed he could coach the talent to its potential and decided to make a change now rather than risk enduring another up-and-down season like the one just completed, featuring a head-scratching loss (to Missouri, Auburn and South Carolina) for every nice win (over Southern Illinois, West Virginia and Vanderbilt). The solution? Billy Clyde Gillispie. The source said he is Arkansas' primary target, and he'd be a great hire for certain. The Texas A&M coach is respected in basketball circles as a tremendous tactician, and his southern roots would work brilliantly in Fayetteville because he speaks the language of the fan base, walks and sounds like the fan base. The move also makes sense for Gillispie because it would allow him to stay near his home state of Texas, where he is both a legend and icon. Arkansas and Texas are border states, of course, and that could figure prominently in Arkansas' attempt to land the rising the star in the business and return to the winning ways the program enjoyed under Nolan Richardson.
Taking a spin around the coaching search world
Updated: Mar/25/2007 12:33 AM
ST. LOUIS -- For the second straight day, Billy Donovan was questioned about the opening at Kentucky. For the second straight day, the Florida coach refused to defuse the speculation that he'll strongly consider the job if offered. "I'm not in control of any decision-making process of what other people are going to do, and it's not my place to comment on anything other than the University of Florida, and that's really the reality of it," Donovan said Saturday. "And I think it's inappropriate and it's out of line on my part to do any of that stuff. I love where I'm at." Far as answers go, that's not the best. But there really is no good way for a coach to address such issues, whether it's Donovan, Chris Lowery or Lon Kruger. If a coach states he's willing to listen, fans crucify him. If a coach states he's not interested, he loses negotiating power with his own school. Knowing this, coaches try to tippy-toe around the issue. The byproduct is incoherent quotes from men who go from sounding brilliant to silly in a matter of 100 words. As for Donovan, here is my educated guess: He'll win another national title. Kentucky will initiate contact. Kentucky will make on offer. Florida will counter. Donovan will think. He'll stay at UF. He'll be rich. After that, Kentucky will turn to a list of candidates, and it's the same list you've already heard. The names most consistently mentioned on the tier right below Donovan are Texas' Rick Barnes, Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Marquette's Tom Crean. Barnes or Izzo might or might not accept, but I can't imagine Crean would reject an offer. So if that's the order of candidates, then it'll never get past Crean, though other coaches prominently mentioned are Texas A&M's Billy Gillispie, Villanova's Jay Wright, Gonzaga's Mark Few, Ohio State's Thad Matta and Memphis' John Calipari. Calipari addressed the issue after Saturday's loss, by the way. "I have no interest in another job," he said. "I'm coaching the University of Memphis. It's where I want to coach. (Memphis athletic director) R.C. (Johnson) and I will probably meet (Sunday). I don't have any interest in any other job.. .. We've got a good thing going. Truth be told, there are probably better jobs than Memphis. Would you all say? Yes there are. But there may not be a better team than the one I'm going to have for the next couple years, and you don't leave that unless the commitment changes, unless it's not there. This school is committed." Calipari is right about how there might not be a better team than the one he's going to have. It's possible -- probable, even -- that seldom-used reserves Tre'Von Willis and Hashim Bailey will transfer, but Jeremy Hunt will be the only departure from the normal rotation unless Joey Dorsey or Robert Dozier make a bad decision and turn pro only realize it was a mistake after they go undrafted in June. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose, the top pure high school point guard in the country, is set to enroll in the summer. Along with fellow newcomers Jeff Robinson (top 65 recruit) and Shawn Taggart (former top 50 recruit/Iowa State transfer) it's likely Memphis will be ranked in the top five of all preseason polls and perhaps as high as No. 1. Of course, if Kentucky actually calls and puts $3 million on the table, then all bets are off. But for now -- and unless people start turning down the UK job at a stunning rate -- Memphis fans can relax. In other coaching search news. .. • Virginia Commonwealth's Anthony Grant has been in St. Louis this weekend watching Florida, where he was a former assistant. Grant has indicated he's staying at VCU for the time being, and I believe him considering he was spotted by many in the Edward Jones Dome Friday night feverishly trying to get a recruit to commit via telephone. • Gregg Marshall is still mulling whether to be the next coach at South Florida after visiting campus late Friday night. Sources have said Marshall can get more money from USF than the $400,000 per year Winthrop is reportedly offering, but he is unsure whether taking what is considered a bottom-tier Big East job is a wise career move, particularly when it's possible South Carolina and/or Clemson -- two jobs close to his Rock Hill, S.C. home -- could open after next season. "He was a nice person," USF's Solomon Bozeman told the Tampa Tribune after meeting Marshall Friday night. "He seemed like a pretty cool guy." • The final opening in the Missouri Valley Conference (for now, at least) is at Indiana State, and it's down to four candidates. According to a source, the list includes Indiana assistant Ray McCallum, Creighton assistant Kevin McKenna, Western Kentucky assistant Jeff Strohm and Indiana State assistant Greg Lansing. Of the group don't be surprised if Lansing gets the job. He was an assistant with Steve Alford at Iowa when Alford was considered a rising star in the business. But when Lansing left before this past season, Alford's career suddenly went the other way, and that might not be a total coincidence, come to think of it. • The same names are still circulating around Michigan, specifically UNLV's Lon Kruger, Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery and Oregon's Ernie Kent. Another name that has surfaced recently is Georgia Tech's Paul Hewitt.
Kentucky candidates include big names -- and Pitino
Updated: Mar/22/2007 06:20 PM
ST. LOUIS -- Billy Donovan has long been considered the obvious candidate to replace Tubby Smith at Kentucky. But on Thursday the Florida coach was in no mood to discuss the situation, using NCAA personnel to help avoid reporters while athletic director Jeremy Foley poked his head through a blue curtain for a quick comment. "Billy is just trying to coach his team," Foley said. "He's trying to win a national championship." In other words, no comment. But ignoring the situation won't make it go away. So expect Donovan's name to keep circulating in respect to the Kentucky opening until he either makes the move or makes it clear he's not interested. Meanwhile, a slew of other coaches will have people working for them in the next 48 hours, trying to figure who is and who is not a legitimate candidate. Among the names certain to surface are Marquette's Tom Crean, Ohio State's Thad Matta, Texas A&M's Billy Gillispie, Memphis' John Calipari, Villanova's Jay Wright, Texas' Rick Barnes, Gonzaga's Mark Few and Michigan State's Tom Izzo. Also, don't be surprised if the interest of Louisville's Rick Pitino is gauged. He preceded Smith at Kentucky before leaving for the NBA and is held in high regard by most UK fans. Every coach in the above list is well-compensated and content with their current situations. Still, the Kentucky job is among the elite jobs in the nation, one that could pay around $3 million per year, meaning everybody will be lining up to listen.
VCU's Grant knows patience is a virtue
Updated: Mar/21/2007 10:48 PM
ST. LOUIS -- I wrote a column Tuesday suggesting mid-major coaches should take the money whenever a BCS school puts it on the table. That's a good rule to live by, kind of like never splitting 10s in blackjack. But there are exceptions to every rule, and the exception this year is Virginia Commonwealth's Anthony Grant. If Grant wants to stay, I understand. In fact, a source close to the situation told me Grant has every intention of staying at VCU, at least for another year. If a premier job opens and calls, he'll listen, no doubt. But Grant already rejected overtures from South Florida, idea being he's now in a position to wait for the perfect fit. Normally, I'd say waiting is bad. But Grant is one of the few guys who can afford to wait, and there are four reasons why. 1) VCU, according to a source, is gathering money at in insane rate to keep its coach. Whatever Grant made this year will be nothing compared to what he'll make next year. Sometimes it's the coach who has to ask for the raise. But in this case it's the school initiating everything. 2) Anytime a mid-major beats a BCS school in the NCAA Tournament it resonates, but beating Duke is different. That's something people don't forget. So while in a year the average fan won't remember which team Winthrop beat in the 2007 NCAA Tournament (it was Notre Dame, by the way) nobody will not remember which team VCU beat in the 2007 NCAA Tournament. A win over Duke lasts longer, meaning Grant's star will shine longer. 3) Five of the top seven players from a 28-win team will return, a fact that suggests VCU won't fall far, if it all. The core is solid, so there's no hurry to walk away. 4) Though the South Florida job is a Big East job, it's not really a great job or the perfect job for Grant. The perfect job for Grant is Miami, and there's a decent chance that job could open after next season if Frank Haith finishes last in the ACC again. Rest assured, Grant is aware of this possibility, and it's making it easier for him to be patient. Anyway, here are some more random thoughts as I try to get my head on straight before the games get started again: • The Michigan job remains the best-available opening at this moment. There is no shortage of names being tossed around, and two of the more prominent will coach against each other in the Sweet 16, specifically UNLV's Lon Kruger and Oregon's Ernie Kent. For those wondering why the Michigan search has been pretty quiet, this is why. Most of the guys the school is targeting are still coaching. • The consensus among those in the business is that if Kruger got the Michigan job -- or any job, really -- it would take UNLV roughly three seconds to hire famous alum Reggie Theus away from New Mexico State. Of course, that makes sense on every level. But don't be surprised if Theus tries to get involved at Michigan himself. He's proved to be a premier recruiter, and there's little doubt he could work the city of Detroit. It's a long shot, and it probably won't happen. But it wouldn't be a bad move for a program that needs a recruiter with a personality. • It seems the hottest "mid-major" coach will be Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery. Hard to say where he'll land but it's safe to assume he'll be in a new job next season, meaning whenever Lowery loses it'll likely be his final game at SIU. • Among the hot assistant names are Gonzaga's Bill Grier, Fresno State's Heath Schroyer and UCLA's Kerry Keating. According to sources, Grier is scheduled to interview at Santa Clara this week, Schroyer is seriously involved with Wyoming and Keating is linked to multiple jobs on the west coast, specifically San Diego. • Things aren't looking good for Jeff Ruland, who led Iona to a 2-28 season. Speculation in coaching circles is that he'll be removed soon, and the rumors are so heavy Iona released a statement Wednesday. "It is policy at Iona College not to comment on employment status. Iona has had ongoing discussions regarding the men's basketball program and expects to meet with Jeff Ruland upon his return from vacation. Until such time, there will be no further comment." Probable translation: We'll fire our coach when he returns from vacation. Until then, just chill. • I spent Wednesday morning writing about how the state of Tennessee has three teams in the Sweet 16, more than any other state. Another interesting fact is that seven of the Sweet 16 teams have players from Tennessee -- specifically Memphis (Andre Allen, Jeremy Hunt, Willie Kemp, Pierre Niles, Clyde Wade and Jared Sandridge), Tennessee (Dane Bradshaw, JaJaun Smith, Wayne Chism, Quinn Cannington, Steven Pearl, Benn Bosse, Rick Daniels-Mulholland and Marq Murden), Vanderbilt (Derrick Byars), North Carolina (Brandan Wright), Southern California (RouSean Cromwell), Southern Illinois (Josh Bone) and Florida (Brandon Powell). • Also in that Tennessee column I tried to explain how much middle and east Tennessee hate Memphis. By Wednesday afternoon, I had further proof thanks to the state legislature refusing to honor Justin Timberlake, who is from Memphis. Hilarious.
Michigan opening sure to lure big names
Updated: Mar/17/2007 05:03 PM
NEW ORLEANS -- Now you know why people weren't jumping all over the Minnesota job. It’s because few wanted to get too involved with that gig until they were certain Michigan wouldn't open considering everybody assumed Michigan would open eventually. On Saturday, eventually arrived. And if Michigan is willing to throw around big money and invest in facilities then it will lure a high-profile coach from somewhere and again become a basketball power now that the uninspired Tommy Amaker era is complete. The bottom line on Amaker is that he's a good guy with a nice image who does everything properly. It's hard to find anybody who doesn't think highly of the Duke graduate, and he's exactly what Michigan needed when it hired him. But now Michigan doesn't need a high-character guy. It needs a high-quality coach who can go into Detroit, lure talent and win games, and so that's the type of person who will be targeted in a search that'll begin immediately, if it hasn't already. The list of possible replacements is long, and some names circulating are Washington State's Tony Bennett, UNLV's Lon Kruger, Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery, Nevada's Mark Fox, Wichita State's Mark Turgeon, West Virginia's John Beilein, Memphis' John Calipari, former Stanford coach Mike Montgomery and former UCLA coach Steve Lavin. Another possibility is Xavier's Sean Miller, but he might have ruined his chances Saturday. I mean, it's hard to imagine Michigan targeting a coach who is coming off a wow-did-he-blow-that loss to Ohio State, isn't it?
Ten assistants ready for the next step
Updated: Mar/15/2007 04:06 PM
The NCAA Tournament began Thursday. Meanwhile athletic directors from Santa Clara to South Florida continued searching for new coaches, everybody hoping this hire will be better than the last. Mostly, it'll be current head coaches who are targeted. But if Anthony Grant has shown us anything, it's that going with an assistant isn't always a mistake. So with that in mind here's an alphabetical list of 10 assistants -- none of whom have been Division I head coaches -- who are ready for a shot if the correct situation becomes available. Tony Chiles (Drexel): An academic school looking for a coach would be wise to consider Chiles. He was the valedictorian of his high school before earning a political science degree from Columbia, where he was also on the Dean's List. Chiles is from New York City and has coached at Manhattan and Iona. Consequently, his recruiting connections are strong, which is why Drexel has two of the top 10 seniors in NYC heading to campus next season. Gene Cross (Notre Dame): He has a bachelor's degree from Illinois, a master's degree from Ohio State and a reputation as a great recruiter under Dave Leitao at both DePaul and Virginia. Now Cross is at Notre Dame, and suddenly Notre Dame looks like a basketball school. And while that might be nothing more than a coincidence, a bright man would choose to believe otherwise. John Groce (Ohio State): The hot names in this business are usually the guys at the hot programs. That's why there's no way to have a list without Groce, a high-level recruiter on an Ohio State staff that has recruited at a high level. Groce is Thad Matta's associate head coach and has been groomed for the past year while handling a lot of media responsibilities. The deeper the Buckeyes advance the more prominent Groce's name will become. Donnie Jones (Florida): If there's anybody who will benefit from Grant's success at VCU, it's Jones, another longtime Billy Donovan assistant on the verge of breaking away. He's a Marshall graduate whose wife is from West Virginia, meaning everybody will be shocked if he's not Ron Jirsa's replacement. In fact, he will be Jirsa's replacement barring something stupid happening, and it'll be a good get for Marshall when it becomes official. Kerry Keating (UCLA): It's not a matter of Keating getting a job, just a matter of which one he'll take because there's probably no more desirable assistant in the nation, and he really makes sense anywhere. Keating is from the East Coast (raised in New York; attended Seton Hall) and he's been an assistant in the South (at Tennessee) and the Midwest (at Tulsa) and now the West. Additionally, Keating's father is an administrator, meaning he also has a complete understanding of intercollegiate athletics. So if somebody's looking for the next Jamie Dixon (i.e., the next great Ben Howland assistant) this is the route to take. Derek Kellogg (Memphis): Over the years, most of John Calipari's assistants have gotten opportunities, from Bruiser Flint to Ed Schilling to Bill Bayno to John Robic to Steve Roccaforte to Tony Barbee. Next in line is Kellogg, a young, energetic former UMass player known as a great recruiter and brilliant communicator who is responsible for much of the talent that has some predicting Memphis to make the Final Four. Tom Moore (UConn): Now Jim Calhoun's associate head coach, Moore is, like pretty much everybody else on this list, a high-level recruiter with endless connections, particularly in New England. Plus, he has been a head coach at Division III Worcester State College, and that he recorded the winningest five-year period in school history speaks to his ability to X and O. Josh Pastner (Arizona): No school should hesitate because Pastner still hasn't turned 30. He's one of the best recruiters in the country with strong ties to his native Texas, proof being Arizona's roster of Nic Wise, Jawann Mclellan and Fendi Onobun. But if that's not enough, here's a quote from Pastner courtesy of CollegeInsider.com about a date he once endured. "I was on the phone during the movies with a recruit one time. I lost my date but we did get the recruit." And that, my friends, is a coach with his priorities in order. Scott Spinelli (Wichita State): Spinelli is a tireless worker who has forever recruited at a level higher than his position, luring All-American candidates Blake Schilb to Loyola-Chicago and Aleks Maric to Nebraska. Now, this former NBA scout with endless East Coast connections is doing the same thing as the associate head coach at Wichita State, and that he's spent time under two respected mentors -- Mark Turgeon and Barry Collier -- is an indication Spinelli isn't just a recruiter but also a well-versed understudy in the business of coaching. Kevin Willard (Louisville): He's the son of a coach (Holy Cross' Ralph Willard), the protégé of another (Louisville's Rick Pitino) and considered one of the bright young minds in college basketball, and that Pitino has compared him to a "young Billy Donovan" can't be considered a bad thing. Yes, he had the DUI a few years ago, and that's terribly unfortunate. But Willard will be a head coach somewhere someday, and it'll be a good hire for whichever school makes the move first.
No need to brag about brackets ... just check the facts
Updated: Mar/13/2007 03:14 AM
Following a trip that kept me in New York roughly 24 hours I'm now back home for roughly 24 hours. Soon, it's off to New Orleans for two rounds of NCAA Tournament games and three or four rounds of hand grenades, as time (and liver) permits, of course. (Unfamiliar with hand grenades? Click here. Unsure what happens when you have too many? Click here.) Anyway, I went back and looked at my final projected bracket. Without bragging, I gotta say I was pretty amazing, and I have the information to prove it. There's a website that documents most of the projected brackets, sort of holds us all accountable. It's called The Bracket Project, which isn't the snappiest name in the world, I admit, but it gets right to the point. In the spirit of giving credit where credit is due, The Bracket Project actually had the best bracket. But that's a little like the guy keeping score in golf having the low 18 holes, isn't it? So I'm skeptical. But whatever. The Bracket Project picked 64 of 65 teams correctly, only incorrectly including Syracuse. But there are 30 brackets documented at the site, and 29 of us included Syracuse. So there's no shame there. Twenty-one of us picked 63 of 65 teams correctly. Now here's the good stuff. The Bracket Project had 34 teams seeded correctly and 51 teams seeded within one of their actual seed. Those numbers ranked first and tied for fourth. So that's further proof that The Bracket Project was good, and it's why I hate The Bracket Project. As for me, I had 28 teams seeded correctly and 51 teams seeded within one of their actual seed. That put me in a four-way tie for second in the first category and a four-way tie for fourth in the second category. Meaning in the three categories listed -- number of correct teams in the field, number of teams seeded correctly and number of teams seeded within one of their actual seed -- I ranked second, second and fourth out of 30. Bottom line, there was only one better overall bracket than mine. Click here to see for yourselves. Translation: I. Am. Awesome. Now I know what you're thinking. What you're thinking is, "OK, Gary. Stop bragging. We know you're awesome. Tell us who wasn't awesome. Of all the major websites which had the worst bracket?" Fine, I'll tell you. I don't want to tell you because I'm not into exposing people. But if you must know, I'll tell you. The worst was. .. ESPN.com's Bracketology. Hilarious, right? Everybody's favorite Bracketologist had 63 teams correctly in the field, but just 19 teams seeded correctly and only 48 teams seeded within one of their actual seed. That 19 ranked tied for next-to-last and that 48 ranked tied for 18th. In basketball terms, this is similar to West Virginia's non-league schedule rating. Another way to grade the brackets is to add the three numbers -- number of correct teams in the field + number of teams seeded correctly + number of teams seeded within one of their actual seed -- and rank them from the highest total number to the lowest total number. Here's how that looks: 149 -- The Bracket Project 142 -- CBS SportsLine.com (that's me!) 142 -- Bracketology 101 142 -- Bubble Teams 141 -- The Backboard 141 -- NetWire 140 -- Bracket WAG 139 -- PHSports 139 -- FoxSports.com 139 -- Beat the Experts 137 -- CollegeHoops.net 137 -- Bracket Racket 137 -- Bracket Watch 137 -- March Madness 07 137 -- Mr. Bracket 136 -- Bracket Express 136 -- Basketball Predictions 135 -- The Bracket Board 135 -- MAG 135 -- NCAA Bracket Predictions 135 -- TGG Bracket 134 -- NCAA Hoops Digest 133 -- Schmolik 64 133 -- Warren Nolan 133 -- SI.com 132 -- Bracketography 132 -- Breaking Down the Bracket 130 -- ESPN.com 128 -- Crashing the Dance 121 -- Colton Index So there you have it, folks. The report cards are public. Now next year you'll know who to trust. And, more importantly, who can't be trusted.
Sowing the seeds of confusion? Then let me clear things up
Updated: Mar/10/2007 03:35 PM
Been chatting on radio stations everyday all day, and one thing I find most people have confused is the way teams are placed into brackets. Seems everybody on the East Coast thinks being sent to the West Region is a punishment, and that's what happens to the worst seed on any line. For example, a host will say, "Team X is projected as the No. 3 seed in the West, but do you think it would be better for them to drop and be the No. 4 seed in the East to be closer to home?" Problem is, it doesn't really work that way. Sometimes that stuff is taken into consideration, but teams are mostly placed into a bracket on an "S" curve. In other words, the No. 1 seeds are placed in regions closest to them in order of overall seeding and then everybody else is just placed in using an "S" curve with little regard to anything other than making sure two teams from the same league aren't put in the same region. Take my top four seeds, for instance. Ohio State is No. 1 overall. It goes to the Midwest. Kansas is No. 2 overall. It goes to the South. UCLA is No. 3 overall. It goes to the West. Wisconsin is No. 4 overall. It goes to the East. After that, the best of the two seeds is paired with the worst of the one seeds, and the second-best of the two seeds is paired with the second-worst of the one seeds, and so on and so forth. So my point is that a team from Florida (even Florida, perhaps) could end up as the second-best No. 2 seed, but that wouldn't necessarily keep it in the East or South. According to how I have the top seeds sorted (which is debatable, I know) Florida would be placed with the second-worst No. 1 seed, which would be UCLA, meaning Florida would be in the West Region. So do not go the rest of this weekend thinking that just because your team got bumped from the two-line to the three-line that means it'll be a high No. 3 instead of a low No. 2 and that'll keep the team in a region close to home. Again, teams aren't placed into brackets that way. They're placed into brackets by using an "S" curve, and though the POD system can keep the higher seeds close to home in the first and second rounds the actual region in which they play and thus where they'd go for the Sweet 16 usually has nothing to do with location as it pertains to everybody who is not a No. 1 seed.
If Houston wins, we may have a problem
Updated: Mar/10/2007 11:23 AM
There are several big games Saturday, but probably none bigger than the Conference USA Tournament title game between Memphis and Houston. What, you ask? See, if Memphis wins C-USA is a one-bid league, and that's what C-USA should be. But if Memphis loses C-USA will become a two-bid league just like the Horizon, WAC and Atlantic 10, and that would be devastating to bubble teams like Kansas State, Old Dominion, Stanford, Georgia Tech, Illinois, etc. So though it's not likely CBS's first game Saturday will be competitive given how Memphis has pounded Houston twice already, lots of folks should be tuned-in with their fingers crossed. I know Bruiser Flint would've wanted his good pal John Calipari to win anyway, but now he actually needs it in the worst way.
Drama is highest in Big Ten tourney
Updated: Mar/09/2007 07:24 AM
Hard to imagine any boring league tournaments Friday, particularly given Thursday's prelude. But the stakes will be highest in Chicago, where at least three teams -- and maybe even four -- are playing games that could very much decide whether they're in or out of the NCAA Tournament. First up is Michigan vs. Ohio State. If the Wolverines lose they're clearly NIT-bound. But an upset of the top-ranked/top-seeded Buckeyes would give Michigan the signature win it lacks and get it in the mix for one of the final at-large bids. If you’re wondering, OSU is probably a No. 1 seed and no worse than a No. 2 seed even if it forfeits. The second game is Purdue vs. Iowa, and both teams still have a shot at an at-large bid. A loss eliminates Iowa's hopes, and a win doesn't secure one because the Hawkeyes would likely need an additional win, preferably against Ohio State in the semifinals, to form a halfway legitimate case. As for Purdue, a win would probably be good enough to secure a spot because it would move the Boilermakers to 11-8 against the Top 100. The third game is Michigan State vs. Wisconsin. The Spartans are probably in the NCAA Tournament regardless the outcome, but a win wouldn't hurt. Likewise, the Badgers are in no matter what, but they need a victory to remain in contention for a No. 1 seed, though even a loss would likely make them no worse than a No. 2 seed. The fourth game is Indiana vs. Illinois. The consensus is Indiana is in win or lose, and Illinois is in with a win. I think I agree, but even in victory the Illini would still ... ah, I'll just let you look at the numbers. Assuming Illinois beats Indiana its updated credentials would be ... -- Illinois -- Overall record: 23-10 Record vs. Top 50: 4-8 Record vs. Top 100: 7-10 Record vs. Everybody else: 16-0 Meanwhile, Clemson's credentials are ... -- Clemson -- Overall record: 21-10 Record vs. Top 50: 6-9 Record vs. Top 100: 9-9 Record vs. Everybody else: 12-1 Not much difference, is there? But nobody thinks Clemson is making the NCAA Tournament, and pretty much everybody thinks Illinois is making the NCAA Tournament if it beats Indiana. Again, I think I probably agree because the idea of denying a 23-win team from the Big Ten just doesn't sound right. But the numbers crunched indicate the Illini will still be very much on the bubble, at least if you're one of those who claim Clemson is certainly headed to the NIT. (In the spirit of full disclosure, Illinois is 7-3 in its past 10 games while Clemson finished 3-7.) Either way, it's a big day in the Big Ten. Should be fun, from noon ET to nearly midnight.
Giving credit (to 'USA Today') where credit is due
Updated: Mar/08/2007 02:43 PM
I don't typically link to other people's articles because I'd rather you think nothing exists outside of stuff you see here. But I respect hard work, and the folks at USA Today really put in some serious time developing a package in Thursday's paper on what college coaches earn per year. How do I know they put in serious time? Steve Wieberg, one of the writers, told me he was working on this at Big 12 Media Day. That was in October, roughly four months ago. Anyway, check it out. They actually have links to PDF files of many coaches' contracts, and it confirmed what I've believed to be true for quite some time, specifically that Tom Izzo is a very rich man.
Reebok steps in to fill Big Time void
Updated: Mar/07/2007 06:21 PM
Sonny Vaccaro ending his annual Big Time Tournament doesn't mean there won't be a big-time AAU tournament in Las Vegas this summer. Filling the void is Reebok, which plans to host the inaugural Summer Championships July 22-26 on 16 courts at eight locations. In other words, it's the same thing. Just under a different name and without Vaccaro. And that the person running it is Vaccaro's old right-hand man, Chris Rivers, ensures the event will likely attract the same caliber programs and college coaches ... if for no other reason than it's a trip to Vegas in late July that can be expensed. And who doesn't love those?
Utah wants Fox in its henhouse
Updated: Mar/06/2007 09:57 AM
Mike Montgomery's comments to the Salt Lake Tribune that he has no interest in the Utah job probably ensures athletic director Chris Hill is now in waiting mode unless he gets a similar rejection -- through intermediaries, of course -- from Nevada coach Mark Fox. Fox, I'm told, is next on Utah's wish list as the school searches for a replacement following Ray Giacoletti's resignation. Whether Fox would be interested is unclear. But a move from the WAC to the Mountain West is an obvious move forward, and it would fall in line with the theory that coaches considering a move should always go when their stock is highest, just like NBA prospects. Has Fox's stock peaked? Well, his Wolf Pack are ranked 10th in the nation in the latest AP poll, and Fox just won his third WAC title and third WAC Coach of the Year honor, impressive accomplishments considering he's only been a head coach three seasons. The Eastern New Mexico graduate has a 79-16 career record heading into this week's WAC Tournament. And while it's likely he'd keep winning if he remained at Nevada, trying to do so at an 83 percent clip seems unimaginable given his fourth season would feature him losing three starters, among them three-time WAC Player of the Year and All-American candidate Nick Fazekas. Bottom line, if Fox is leaving this is the time to leave. And he's clearly going to have options, Utah presumably being just one of many.
'The Poll Attacks': What's going on here?
Updated: Mar/06/2007 02:58 AM
It's late in the season, and I'm so over The Poll Attacks. But I'm a man of my word (most times, at least). So here are The Poll Attacks, as promised. AP poll: I love the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi story. It's excellent. The program was started from scratch in 1998 and is now on the verge of an NCAA Tournament appearance after winning the Southland Conference regular-season title. Again, great story. But there's no way the Islanders should be receiving votes in the AP poll. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is 23-6, but 18 of those wins came against either non-Division I opponents or schools ranked outside the top 225 at CollegeRPI.com. Furthermore, the Islanders only played four top 75 schools this season, and they lost to all four -- UNLV, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State -- by an average of 18.5 points. Does that sound Top 25ish? Of course, not. But somebody -- a voter whose name I will protect while stating only that he, naturally, lives really close to the school -- placed the Islanders at No. 25. It's sweet, I guess. But it's still wrong -- even if the Islanders are having a wonderful season under the guidance of one of the great young athletic directors in the nation (Hi Brian Teter!). Coaches poll: I'm not even going to argue about it. Like I said, I'm so over this stuff. But it remains hilarious how coaches ignore Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Vols unless there's just no way around it. The Vols have won four straight games and seven of eight since Chris Lofton returned from injury. They are 22-9 -- but 21-6 in games where Lofton participated -- with 14 top 100 victories, including wins over Memphis, Florida, Kentucky, Texas, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Georgia (twice). Still, Tennessee is merely sixth in "others receiving votes." Air Force, on the other hand, is two spots ahead of the Vols despite losing three consecutive games and having half as many top 100 wins.
Look who's back getting people excited
Updated: Mar/05/2007 02:26 PM
What happened at the CAA Tournament wasn't good for Old Dominion or Drexel. But man, I bet ESPN is happy. Last year's Cinderella is playing the role again. Yep, the reigning darlings of the Final Four -- the George Mason Patriots -- are marching through another bracket as underdogs. The sixth-seeded Patriots beat third-seeded Hofstra on Saturday and second-seeded Old Dominion on Sunday to set up Monday night's CAA Tournament title game against top-seeded Virginia Commonwealth. If George Mason wins, it’s back to the NCAA Tournament. This, despite a current record of 18-14, 120 RPI and no Top 50 victories. Nice storyline, huh? Fans apparently believe so. Monday morning, the title game was officially announced as a sellout at the Richmond Coliseum, making this the first time in CAA history that the championship will be played before a sellout crowd estimated at more than 13,000.
L.A. teams well-represented in prep all-star game
Updated: Mar/03/2007 08:37 AM
The rosters for the 43rd annual Sonny Vaccaro Roundball Classic were announced Friday. Among the high-profile prep prospects participating are a pair of players headed to college in Los Angeles next season, namely O.J. Mayo (Southern California signee) and Kevin Love (UCLA signee). The event is scheduled for April 3 -- roughly 24 hours after the NCAA Tournament title game -- at the United Center in Chicago. It's an ideal setting given the local Big East program, DePaul, has two prospects involved, specifically Nyal Koshwal and Darquavis Tucker. Click this link to view the entire Roundball Classic rosters.
Observant cartoonist worth a look
Updated: Mar/02/2007 01:02 PM
ST. LOUIS -- In a time when most newspapers seem clueless about how to properly use technology, credit the News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C., for trying something different and succeeding. Grey Blackwell has been making cartoons on various college subjects for a while, the most famous perhaps being It's Hard Out Here for a Coach, featuring former N.C. State football coach Chuck Amato doing a Three 6 Mafia impression. Now, Blackwell has a new cartoon. It's about North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams competing with Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski for commercial time. As usual, it's really well done, creative and funny. Here is the link. It's worth checking out. You might need to register with the News & Observer to gain access, but BugMeNot.com can usually help get around such obstacles.
Need a hero? Look to the Law
Updated: Mar/01/2007 01:46 AM
I was asked a couple of months ago on a radio show who I'd want taking a last-second shot. My reply: Chris Lofton. But I would now like to amend that answer. Sure, Lofton remains a wonderful choice; nothing against the Tennessee star. But Acie Law is a bad dude, and the Texas A&M senior proved it again late Wednesday in what was ultimately a 98-96 double-overtime loss for the Aggies at Texas. First, A&M trailed by three points with less than 10 seconds left in regulation. Law, a 6-3 guard, got the ball and shot it -- no, threw it -- over Kevin Durant, a 6-9 forward, creating a high-arching attempt that swished with 1.1 seconds remaining. Tie game. Let's go to overtime! Next, A&M trailed by three points, less than 30 seconds left in the first overtime. Law got the ball again, side-stepped a defender, took one dribble and -- what else? -- buried another 3-pointer with 26.3 seconds remaining. Tie game. Let's go to a second overtime! To Rick Barnes's credit, he wasn't about to let Law hit another 3-pointer to force a third overtime. So the Longhorns fouled him -- it could've been an intentional foul, by the way -- to protect their three-point lead with 1.4 seconds left. Law hit the first free throw and purposely missed the second. Chinemelu Elonu got the rebound, but he missed the follow and Texas escaped. Still, even in defeat, Law further established himself as the best clutch player in America. Only guy close to him is Durant -- who finished with 30 points and 16 rebounds while providing Reason No. 1,492 why he, as a freshman, is the easy pick for National Player of the Year. On another note, this was also in all likelihood Durant's final home game at Texas given how he's no worse than the No. 2 pick in June's NBA Draft if he makes himself available. Afterward, the crowd chanted "Three more years!" (greedy bastards, aren't they?). But the reality is the UT faithful should be pulling for something a little more realistic. How about five more weeks?
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