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Parrish: The Thoughts
 
 
Parrish: The Thoughts By Gary Parrish
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Tell Gary your opinion!
 
 

Gary Parrish weighs in regularly on what's happening in college basketball.

Winners, losers in departures for the NBA
Updated: Apr/30/2007 12:51 PM

The deadline for early entry into the NBA Draft was midnight, and when the NBA releases its official list in the next 48 hours, we'll know exactly who's in and who's out, though there should be no relevant surprises. Thus, it's an appropriate time to gauge the damage, see which programs were hit hardest and which avoided panic mode.

So here you go ...

(Note: The following is based on teams really losing their draft-eligible players. If some surprise the masses and return to school, these lists will change. But if you’re a fan of Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, Kansas or Georgia Tech, it's time to realize your guys are likely gone.)

Five teams that were hurt badly

1. Florida: It's funny that people forget how the Gators were actually damaged by early defections more than anybody else because it was long assumed Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green would leave following their junior seasons. But when you push that aside and realize Florida could've technically returned four starters from back-to-back national title teams, it's clear nobody is suffering more.

2. Ohio State: I was asked on a radio show a couple of weeks ago if I knew when Greg Oden decided to turn pro. My reply: About three years ago, meaning anybody with a brain knew Ohio State was losing its 7-foot center after one year of college. Still, when Thad Matta signed that stellar class he couldn't have assumed Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook would follow suit. And that they did is the difference between the Buckeyes challenging for another Final Four and scrapping just to finish in the top three of the Big Ten.

3. Georgetown: Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert are still insisting they might return to school. But it's difficult to find lottery picks who declare and withdraw, meaning I'll believe it when I see it, and probably not even then. Consequently, Georgetown goes from the favorites to win the national title to just another contender in the ridiculously deep Big East.

4. Kansas: Bill Self still has the talent to win the Big 12 given how six of the Jayhawks' top eight scorers should return. Still, losing Julian Wright and Brandon Rush won't go unnoticed, and it's reasonable to assume Kansas might play small in order to keep Sherron Collins, Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson on the court as much as possible.

5. Georgia Tech: The four schools mentioned above get to at least classify their departures as bitter-sweet considering Florida, Ohio State and Georgetown parlayed their talent to a Final Four and Kansas made the Elite Eight. But for Georgia Tech, it's just bitter-bitter because the Yellow Jackets weren't able to ride Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton to anything other than a first-round loss to UNLV in the NCAA Tournament.

Five teams that survived well

1. North Carolina: Yes, the Tar Heels lost Brandan Wright, but it could've been much worse. That Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough opted to put off NBA millions for at least another year means North Carolina will be a national title contender for at least another year.

2. Stanford: Brook Lopez will be among the top centers in college next season, point being he could've left for the NBA after this season. But he didn't. So Stanford will be a factor in the Pac-10, and nationally.

3. Tennessee: Chris Lofton flirted with the NBA Draft before wisely choosing to return to school. That makes the Vols a top five team, not to mention one featuring a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate.

4. Memphis: The Tigers didn't have a first-round pick on their roster, but that's never stopped them from losing players in the past (See: Washington, Darius). Bucking the trend, Joey Dorsey and Chris Douglas-Roberts were each smart to not even seriously explore the possibility, and now John Calipari has a team that should be favored in every regular-season contest given how it doesn't figure to meet a ranked opponent in a true road game.

5. UCLA: Arron Afflalo is gone, but UCLA is better off losing him than teammate Darren Collison. Put another way: If the Bruins had to lose one of the two it lost the right one. So don't be surprised when the Bruins are back in the Final Four for a third consecutive year.

 
 
Too many question marks surrounding Majerus-SLU
Updated: Apr/26/2007 12:53 PM

Negotiations do not typically take this long.

That's why Saint Louis University should start looking elsewhere.

At this point, the administration has focused solely on Rick Majerus, even interviewing him last Saturday. But as I type, still nothing is done, which is rare given how this is a business where Louisville's Tom Jurich can go from losing a coach in any sport to having a replacement named and press conference scheduled in a matter of 14 minutes.

To be clear, nabbing Majerus would on the surface be a great hire because he's smart, funny and a brilliant tactician. But when you combine Majerus' health concerns with his apparent mental uncertainty about whether he wants to leave his job as an analyst to rejoin the rat race of chasing players, it becomes reasonable to question whether the larger-than-life character -- and I mean that both figuratively and literally -- is the right fit for the long term.

Sure, he'd be great at the press conference.

And he'd get people excited.

And he'd win.

But two of his final four seasons at Utah were cut short for personal/health reasons, and it's hard to imagine similar issues not creeping up again considering Majerus doesn't look all that healthier these days and his mother, for whom he cares deeply, is still battling cancer. Add that to his undeniable hesitation, and it's clear this isn't a job Majerus is dying to get. Instead, SLU is dying to get him, and he's in turn debating whether it's something he'd like to do until he decides he'd like to do something else or until he simply can't do it anymore.

For those reasons, SLU ought to be the ones having second thoughts.

Make no mistake, Majerus is wonderful as long as he's healthy, not distracted by personal issues and totally committed to and excited about the task at hand. But his history combined with how he's kept Saint Louis on hold for nearly a week makes it fair to wonder whether any of those things would actually be the case, fair to wonder whether SLU wouldn't be looking for a new coach again in a year or two, if not sooner.

 
 
Marquette on verge of losing PG James
Updated: Apr/25/2007 02:03 PM

In between recruiting and celebrating his oldest daughter Megan's 12th birthday, Tom Crean spent Wednesday dealing with the reality that his point guard and leading scorer is likely headed for the NBA Draft.

Nothing is official yet.

Dominic James still has until Sunday to declare.

But barring an unexpected change of plans, Crean told CBS SportsLine.com James will indeed declare. Asked if this is an example of James simply trying to take advantage of what is expected to be a weak class of draft-eligible point guards relative to next year's class that should feature Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo and Ty Lawson, Crean didn't hesitate to answer.

"Absolutely," he said. "Absolutely."

As it stands, Ohio State's Mike Conley Jr. and Texas A&M's Acie Law IV are the only point guards officially in the draft who are projected as first-round picks -- though that could change if Georgia Tech's Javaris Crittenton and UCLA's Darren Collison declare. Speaking of, it's probably not a good sign for UCLA that Collison's mother, June Griffith-Collison, has announced her resignation as director of a medical center in California to "assist" in her son's career. On the other hand, it probably is a good sign for Marquette, because if Collison and Crittenton each declare then it's reasonable to assume James will be no better than the fifth-best available point guard.

Under that scenario, James would likely return to Marquette.

If so, Marquette would likely challenge for a Big East title.

"But you have to let people chase their dreams," Crean said. "I know a guy at a program that we compete against who worked so diligently to hold one of his players back that -- and this player ended up being a lottery pick -- he didn't even meet the player's agent until the night of the draft. I don't think that's right, and I don't ever want that to be me. You have to give your players a chance to chase their dreams. If not, you're not building your program the right way or doing the right thing."

 
 
Gillispie proves he's worth the money
Updated: Apr/24/2007 01:36 PM

If Billy Gillispie didn't already have Kentucky fans worked into a frenzy, he certainly does now. The new coach received a signed letter of intent from former Michigan recruit Alex Legion on Tuesday, giving the Wildcats only their second top 33 prospect (according to Scout.com) over the past six years.

Legion is ranked 33rd in the nation.

Randolph Morris was ranked eighth in 2004.

Beyond that, elite signings have been sparse at Kentucky, which was the main reason Tubby Smith was chased to Minnesota. It's not necessarily that UK fans hated what Smith was doing on the court now, it's that there was no reason to believe it was going to improve given the lack of talent being brought into the program.

Fortunately for the Wildcats, that appears to be a problem of the past. In signing Legion out of Oak Hill Academy, Gillispie has established his place at UK while showing he's the type of high-caliber recruiter for whom those filling Rupp Arena have longed. And if he can also nab Patrick Patterson and Jai Lucas -- the other two available Top 50 prospects remaining from the Class of 2007 -- then it's fair to expect the Wildcats to compete for SEC titles again as early as next season.

 
 
Mum can't be the word in Arkansas
Updated: Apr/23/2007 11:16 AM

Was Dana Altman smart or what?

He held the Arkansas job just long enough to realize there were failed drug tests and academic uncertainties before reconsidering and returning to Creighton. By doing so he also avoided this weekend's arrest of Charles Thomas on suspicion of third-degree domestic battery after the junior and his ex-girlfriend were involved in an altercation that left both with skin abrasions, according to an incident report.

Of course, John Pelphrey is to this point avoiding the incident, too. Rather than make a comment designed to calm a fan base about how he's standing by Thomas until more information is gathered but that if a hand was laid on a female a significant price will be paid at an appropriate time, the former South Alabama coach merely issued a blanket no comment through a school spokesman.

That, by the way, is something Pelphrey will eventually learn doesn't work at this level.

It's easy to decline comment on such issues in the Sun Belt, where the number of people who actually care one way or another is small, if not insignificant. But the reach is much greater in the SEC, and coaches have to acknowledge problems when they exist, evidence being how Arkansas football coach Houston Nutt was forced to release a statement last week detailing his -- let's just call it unusual -- relationship with a local TV reporter who just so happens to be female and cute.

I suppose Biggie said it best.

Mo money. Mo problems.

 
 
Fixing LOI problem a two-way street -- period
Updated: Apr/20/2007 02:20 PM

My Friday column suggests it's wise for recruits to wait until the late period to sign a national letter of intent. Among the reasons mentioned is how it avoids scenarios where prospects sign with schools because of a coach in November only to watch that coach leave five months later for one reason or another.

When that happens, it's always touchy.

Some recruits are OK with it.

But many want out.

Consequently, schools are sometimes left wondering whether to force an unhappy recruit to honor his letter of intent or grant a full release that could severely damage the program for years. It turns into a debate every April, mostly because NCAA rules allow two schools in identical situations to take totally opposite courses of action.

There is no good answer.

But as always, I have the solution.

And it's not to just void all LOI when any change is made for any reason.

That's the most readily repeated idea from writers, radio hosts and fans. It's a simple solution to a complex issue, as stupid as it is short-sighted.

Implementing that rule would be disastrous in how it would encourage coaches to sign recruiting classes and use them as bargaining chips for other jobs. Imagine if Bob Huggins signed the No. 1 class in the country featuring the No. 1 player in the country, and he could essentially shop himself and his recruits to other schools as one big package, meaning after spending a year recruiting players on Kansas State's budget, he could call Kentucky, Michigan, Iowa or anybody and inform them all they have to do is put $1.8 million on the table and he and five recruits will be there by the end of the week.

That's crazy, right?

But it's exactly what would happen if LOI were erased during any coaching change for any reason.

That's why they can't be handled like that.

That's why they should be handled like this:

If a coach under contract chooses to leave his school for another job or retirement ... all signed letters of intent must be honored. Period. End of story. The only way out is to sit out a year while changing schools similar to a Division I transfer. So all prospects would be warned that before signing with a school, they'd better know they want to attend that school regardless of the coach or know they can trust the coach to remain regardless the circumstances. Ultimately, this takes the pressure off the institutions to try to determine how to handle a delicate situation, and it's not the school that is screwing the prospect. Instead, it's the coach who is screwing the prospect, because if he wanted to stay and coach that prospect like he promised, then he could.

If a coach under contract is fired or forced into resignation or retirement by his school ... all signed letters of intent must be voided. Period. End of story. A good portion of a coach's responsibilities is to recruit, and if a coach recruits well, it should help his job security. Implementing this rule makes a school think twice about removing a coach who has secured top prospects because the school knows if it keeps its coach, it gets the signed recruits, but if it removes its coach it might not get the signed recruits (unless, of course, they choose to re-sign with the new coach).

So that's it.

Not too difficult at all, is it?

If a coach chooses to remove himself, the LOI remain in place.

If a school chooses to remove the coach, the LOI are void.

No questions asked.

No debate necessary.

The only problem I see is that a coach who is being forced out could agree to publicly state he is actually leaving voluntarily in exchange for a larger financial buyout. Such would allow the school to remove its coach while keeping his recruits tied to their letters of intent.

Would that really happen?

Probably someday, yes.

But if schools and coaches going through a messy divorce would be willing to conspire in such an unethical way, then there's really nothing we can do. So we're sort of counting on university administrators to avoid under-the-table deals and act like leaders of institutions of higher learning, but if we can't at least do that, then there's no hope of fixing anything anyway.

 
 
There's no harm in testing the water
Updated: Apr/19/2007 12:08 PM

Over the next week you'll see certain players who have no business doing so entering their names in the NBA Draft. You'll read about it and wonder what the guy was thinking while labeling him the dumbest student-athlete on the planet.

On the surface, you'll be right.

But if it's a junior making the move then it's probably wise to refrain judgment. Truth is, for juniors who have not previously declared it's sort of a no-brainer decision to explore all options.

Which brings us to Shaun Pruitt.

A 6-10 forward, Pruitt is a good (not great) player on a good (not great) team. He averaged 11.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for Illinois this past season. And while those are respectable numbers they are not the type that propels prospects into the first round.

So why has he declared?

The better question is why not?

The NCAA allows every student-athlete the opportunity to test the process and return to school once in his career so long as he doesn't compromise his amateur status. In other words, as long as Pruitt doesn't sign with an agent or accept extra benefits forbidden by the NCAA he'll be able to compete with other draft hopefuls in front of countless scouts and general managers and learn exactly where his deficiencies lie and what he must improve upon to become a legitimate NBA prospect.

If stars align, Pruitt will grab somebody's attention.

If not, he will return to the Big Ten humbled.

Either way, there's no harm in taking a shot.

Think of it as somebody handing out free lottery tickets. Odds are if you take it and scratch it you'll find out it was worth nothing. But there's really no downside to taking it and scratching it before returning to your regular-scheduled life.

 
 
Soderberg sacking? What did you do, coach?
Updated: Apr/18/2007 09:40 AM

I hope Brad Soderberg was dealing heroin out of his office.

Or sleeping with a student.

Or embezzling cash from his budget.

Or at least drinking Natural Light at a college party.

Because short of a scandal like that the timing of his Tuesday firing makes no sense, and I refuse to believe the Saint Louis University administration is dumb enough to wait until six weeks after the season to remove its coach and start a search for a replacement smack-dab in the middle of a recruiting period.

How crazy is the timing?

According to research done by the St. Louis Post Dispatch's Vahe Gregorian (I'm into giving credit where credit is due), only one other Division I coach in the past five years was fired after April 15. That casualty was Iowa State's Larry Eustachy, and it took pictures of him with a can of beer in his hand and a young lady on his arm at a college party to make that happen.

In other words, this is unprecedented if it's not scandal related.

That's why this had better be scandal related.

If it isn't, SLU's administrators should be next to go.

Meanwhile, there's another opening on the coaching carousel.

Yippie!

I was worried it might end soon, but it won't. And while it's impossible to predict which direction SLU will go given how it was impossible to predict it would go this direction to begin with, some candidates likely to be considered are Western Kentucky's Darrin Horn, Wright State's Brad Brownell, Purdue assistant Cuonzo Martin, Texas A&M assistant Pooh Williamson, former Virginia coach Pete Gillen, former New Mexico coach Fran Fraschilla and former UCLA coach Steve Lavin.

 
 
Seeking votes for the hair apparent
Updated: Apr/16/2007 02:14 PM

I love winning awards.

I don't hang them on the wall or prominently display them for others to see because I think that's tacky. But I have a box in my attic featuring plaques and certificates and all sorts of neat things I've won, and whenever I find an opportunity to add to that box I am compelled to do so.

Today I am compelled.

Because I have found an opportunity.

And it might be the best award I could ever win.

As some of you know, I live in the Memphis area, which apparently makes me eligible for the first annual M Awards designed to highlight "all that is great in Memphis area sports." I'm pleased to announce I have been nominated for the award of ... best hair.

It's not best actor, I know.

But it's still an award.

I should win it.

Now I know what you're thinking. You're looking at my picture at CBS SportsLine.com, studying my hair and thinking there is nothing great or unusual about it, making it difficult to label it the best in Memphis. I don't disagree. But that picture was taken one day after a haircut I got so that I would look somewhat presentable for my bosses while they were deciding whether to hire me or someone with a more reasonable hairstyle. It worked! But ask anybody who has ever seen me in a normal setting and they'll tell you my hair is utterly ridiculous (I look like the logo of the old XFL Memphis Maniax, actually). I'm not sure it's technically the best, but it's certainly memorable, and that should be enough for me to defeat the competition featuring Memphis Tigers coach John Calipari (boring hair), Memphis athletic director R.C. Johnson (possibly fake hair) and Memphis Grizzlies shooter Mike Miller (straggly hair).

My only concern is Memphis Tigers point guard Andre Allen.

He's got a damn UofM logo shaved into his head.

That's pretty awesome, I admit.

But Andre, to my knowledge, does not work for a prominent website with millions of viewers from all over the world. I do. So there's no reason why I shouldn't run away with this competition. If Andre's lucky he'll pull a few votes from Mississippi, Arkansas and dominate his neighborhood in South Memphis. But I should be able to pull votes from everywhere, from Syracuse to San Diego and all points in between.

So here's the ballot.

Rock the Vote!

Vote or Die!

Whatever.

My hair is the best, and it's time to show the world ... or at least the Memphis area.

(PS -- While you're at it, also vote for Chris Vernon whenever you see his name. He's a talented local radio host, a decent man in general. He should win best radio personality and best radio program on his own merit. But we should still probably conspire, just in case.)

 
 
Grizzlies, Celtics fans, rejoice
Updated: Apr/14/2007 01:24 AM

Congratulations, Memphis Grizzlies!

Here's to you, Boston Celtics!

Your franchise-changers are both in the NBA Draft, meaning as long as you don't get screwed by a ping-pong ball in the lottery you are on the verge of adding a future Hall of Famer. You'll get either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, and you'll be better for it. So again, congratulations. You've worked hard -- and sucked bad -- to get to this point.

First, Durant announced his intentions.

Now, Oden has done the same.

So that roar you heard late Friday was coming from folks in Memphis and Boston -- two cities that should own the top two picks in June's NBA Draft barring an unfortunate incident. What you heard was a sigh of relief, actually. Because until Oden's father -- Greg Oden Sr. -- told the Indianapolis Star his son was leaving Ohio State, there was still a small bit of uncertainty surrounding the 7-foot center's decision considering some believed the phenom was just kooky enough to return to school.

Ultimately, he was not.

And while it would be a pleasure to watch him continue as a college sophomore, it's impossible to produce one reason why he should. In Oden, what we witnessed this season was a 19-year-old significantly limited by a surgically repaired right wrist who still averaged 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game.

Granted, those weren't Durant-type numbers, which is why some -- including Memphis' Joey Dorsey -- suggested Oden was overrated. But look at Oden's averages of 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game as a freshman again, and now look at how they compare to the freshman seasons of four other pretty good centers.

Patrick Ewing: 12.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 blocks.
Shaquille O'Neal: 13.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, 3.6 blocks.
Alonzo Mourning: 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 blocks.
Hakeem Olajuwon: 8.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.5 blocks.

Of those four guys, nobody scored more and only O'Neal rebounded more.

Put another way, Oden wasn't overrated at all.

He's a beast, a future star.

So congratulations, Memphis Grizzlies!

Here's to you, Boston Celtics!

Greg Oden has joined Kevin Durant in the NBA Draft.

Now don't let those ping-pong balls screw you, you hear?

 
 
Small island, big search for Hawaii's new coach
Updated: Apr/13/2007 10:21 PM

Arkansas had owned the most inexplicable coaching search this offseason.

But not anymore.

The Hogs were passed by Hawaii on Friday.

Yep, Hawaii, which has hired assistant Bob Nash. Nothing wrong with Nash, far as I know. But how Hawaii got to this point -- specifically the amount of time it took to get to this point -- is embarrassing on many levels, and it cost the school dearly.

Here's a recap:

December 29, 2006: Hawaii forces longtime coach Riley Wallace to announce his resignation effective at the end of the season. The announcement is supposed to allow Hawaii officials, including athletic director Herman Frazier, an opportunity to get a head start on finding Wallace's replacement.

December 30, 2006 to April 12, 2007: Damn near every school in America hires a new coach.

April 13, 2007: Hawaii (finally) hires Bob Nash, a former player who has been on staff 25 years.

In case that timeline alone doesn't demonstrate how absurd Hawaii's actions are, I'll explain. It took the school nearly four months to hire a guy who has been on campus 27 years (Nash played at Hawaii in 1970-71 before becoming an assistant). Seems to me the people there should've known whether he was head coach material no later than 1976 or so. But it took Hawaii all these years -- plus another four months -- to make a move for Nash.

Meanwhile, valuable recruiting time was lost, and the school wasted countless dollars flying a five-person advisory committee to Los Angeles to interview candidates when all they really had to do was walk across the hall, tap Nash on the shoulder and appoint him. Again, Hawaii sent a five-person committee to Los Angeles to find a guy it already knew living presumably down the street.

Unreal.

If ever a school needed a firm to handle its search, Hawaii was probably it. Just because you're not connected to the continental United States shouldn't mean you're totally disconnected, in general.

 
 
Lutz, Charlotte not a pretty situation
Updated: Apr/12/2007 12:25 AM

Bobby Lutz hates Charlotte.

Or he knows Charlotte hates him.

Those are the only explanations for his public flirtation with South Alabama, and I have to believe he has received a guarantee he'll be the next Jaguars coach because there is no way Lutz can return to Charlotte after making himself a serious candidate with a Sun Belt school in Mobile, Ala. It's one thing to visit North Carolina of the ACC, then return to Charlotte. It's quite another to visit South Alabama of the Sun Belt, then return to Charlotte.

The former makes you a hero.

The latter makes you a villain.

So while Lutz' days at Charlotte might've been numbered based on two straight years without an NCAA Tournament -- including a 14-16 record this past season -- his actions Wednesday all but ruined any chance of ever regaining the trust or confidence of 49ers fans. Bottom line, Bobby Lutz is done at Charlotte after formally interviewing at South Alabama and in turn implying he's willing to take a step backwards. So he'd better have that South Alabama job secured because though North Carolina has forever been home there's no way he'll be welcome there anymore.

 
 
Afflalo turns pro at worst possible time
Updated: Apr/10/2007 11:47 PM

Proof that UCLA's Arron Afflalo wanted badly to turn pro came Tuesday when he turned pro with his stock at its absolute lowest. Still in everybody's minds -- and for good reason -- is that embarrassing performance from the Final Four in which he was thoroughly dominated by Florida's Corey Brewer, and any hope Afflalo had at tricking scouts into believing he's an NBA-ready shooting guard disappeared that night in Atlanta right along with the Bruins' immediate hopes of adding a 12th national title.

Afflalo is good, not great.

Perfect for college, not so much for the NBA.

That's the simplest way to put it, the way my colleague Gregg Doyel put it a couple of days before Brewer shut down Afflalo on March 31. In the spirit of honesty, I was not a fan of that column when it was written, didn't think it was on the mark at all. But then Brewer held Afflalo to no points in the first half and zero effective points in the game (he finished with 17 in garbage time), and that's when I became a believer in Doyel and a non-believer in Afflalo, at least at the NBA level.

That performance should've forced Afflalo back to school.

Rather, it forced him into panic mode.

So while he'll still be selected and make more money than most of us, he's dismissing his third (and best) opportunity to win a national title based on a rush to get a paycheck that will be huge, yet nowhere close to as huge as it would've been had he entered the NBA Draft coming off a solid performance in the 2008 Final Four, one in which he showed he could create his own shot and bury jumpers against bigger/elite-level defenders.

Alas, we'll never see that side of Afflalo.

Our last memory of him will instead be on the bench in the Georgia Dome frowning, saddled with three early fouls. Too bad, I say. Because it would've been fun to spend the next few months talking about what Afflalo can be instead of what he so clearly isn't.

 
 
Marquette's James to jump? Think about it
Updated: Apr/09/2007 07:36 PM

One of the stranger names circulating in talks about which underclassmen will enter the NBA Draft is Dominic James. On the surface it makes no sense, considering the Marquette point guard hardly had a sophomore season that increased his status thanks to his averages in points per game, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage each going down. But below the surface it's not so crazy, and there's a simple explanation.

It's a numbers game.

Assuming Ohio State's Mike Conley Jr. is a man of his word and remains in school, the available crop of point guards for the 2007 NBA Draft should be bad -- and thin. There's Texas A&M's Acie Law, Oregon's Aaron Brooks, Cal State-Fullerton's Bobby Brown, Florida's Taurean Green and (perhaps) USC's Gabe Pruitt. That's probably it. So as flawed as he is, James could conceivably be the second point guard taken in June with the only guarantee being he'd go behind Law.

Fast-forward to next year, and things get much more crowded. The list of available point guards for the 2008 NBA Draft could include Memphis' Derrick Rose, USC's O.J. Mayo, UCLA's Darren Collison, North Carolina's Ty Lawson, Georgia Tech's Javaris Crittenton, Texas' D.J. Augustin, Alabama's Ronald Steele, Virginia's Sean Singletary and Michigan State's Drew Neitzel, among others. So James could go from being a late first-rounder in 2007 to a late second-rounder in 2008 based on nothing more than what else will be available if he waits until after next season to declare.

To be clear, James isn't ready for the NBA.

He's not even close.

But don't be surprised if you see him ultimately make himself available.

And if it happens, you'll know why.

 
 
Two bigs gigs remain: Hogs, A&M
Updated: Apr/06/2007 08:31 PM

Most of the big jobs are filled.

Speaking as a college basketball columnist, I couldn't be more thrilled. There is nothing as frustrating as waiting on a text message from a source to tell you whether he knows if his buddy is about to take the job at State U.

And forget about sleeping. My last call from a person in basketball circles before I went to bed late Thursday/early Friday was at 2:47 a.m. My next call came at 7:02 a.m.

Meanwhile, my wife thinks I don't pay her enough attention.

And she swears I talk on my cell phone too much.

You can't win, I tell you. You just can't win.

(Rant ends here.)

Anyway, there are only two remaining BCS openings after Kansas State was filled by assistant Frank Martin on Friday afternoon. In the spirit of getting those completed quickly, here's what I'd do if I were the athletic directors at Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Arkansas

Who I'd offer: Andy Kennedy (Ole Miss)

Why I'd offer him: He's smart, tireless and a hell of coach, proof being how he inherited a bad situation at Cincinnati and won before inheriting another bad situation at Ole Miss and winning there, too. If Arkansas hasn't called yet, it should. If Ole Miss hasn't signed him to a big extension yet, it should.

Next choice: Scott Sutton (Oral Roberts)

Texas A&M

Who I'd offer: Reggie Theus (New Mexico State)

Why I'd offer him: He's charismatic, famous and on par with Billy Gillispie as a recruiter. The Aggies cannot afford to mess this hire up and lose all the momentum created in the past three years. Therefore, Theus is the safest bet because he'd demand attention and get players, and that's what makes coaches successful. Plus, Theus is already an Aggie. How easy is that?

Next choice: Doc Sadler (Nebraska)

 
 
If Gillispie falls through, how about Ms. Judd?
Updated: Apr/06/2007 12:15 AM

It was a wild day for Kentucky.

It started with Billy Donovan stating he'd rather stay at Florida then moved to Rick Barnes stating he'd rather stay at Texas and ended with UK receiving permission to speak with Texas A&M's Billy Gillispie. By any standards, that's a busy day at the office for athletic director Mitch Barnhart, not to mention the poor reporters trying to follow this search and the 16,000 fans in pure panic mode at UK's most-popular message board.

My guess -- per sources -- is that the search stops here.

Assuming an offer is made I'd be shocked if Gillispie didn't accept and take his hard-nosed, defensive-minded brand of basketball to Rupp Arena. But just in case there's a snag it's always good to look ahead. So it's probably appropriate to consider who might be next in line.

Perhaps Michigan State's Tom Izzo.

Or the Suns' Mike D'Antoni.

Or Memphis' John Calipari.

Or Marquette's Tom Crean.

Or Gonzaga's Mark Few.

Or me (Note to Mitch: I'm yours for six years, 11.3 million, guaranteed).

In all seriousness, despite things being messy right now Kentucky will land a great coach eventually, probably Gillispie at some point in the next 48 hours. The program is too good and too proud -- and too rich -- for anything less than greatness. But until this search officially concludes the circus will continue, one permission-seeking phone call at a time.

 
 
Gators remain favorites -- if no current players turn pro
Updated: Apr/04/2007 04:18 AM

In between trying to figure out if I've ever seen a coaching search as crazy as the one Arkansas is producing, I found time Tuesday to put together a Preseason Top 25 (and one) based on who I think will turn pro and who I think will return to school.

So my belief that Kevin Durant is leaving hurt Texas.

And my belief that Mike Conley Jr. is staying helped Ohio State.

Bottom line, I ended up with UCLA in the top spot because I do not believe Arron Afflalo will jump to the NBA and I do believe Kevin Love will add the interior presence the Bruins lacked this season. Best I can tell, there will be another banner in Pauley Pavilion soon.

That's my prediction.

Coach Wooden will be proud.

But now it's time to approach this from a different angle, from the silly assumption that no current players would turn pro early. If that were the case -- and don't worry, it won't be -- here's how the Top 10 would look:

1. Florida

2. Ohio State

3. Georgetown

4. UCLA

5. Kansas

6. North Carolina

7. Memphis

8. Southern California

9. Texas

10. Louisville

Anything seem familiar?

If Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green returned to Florida, Greg Oden returned to Ohio State, and Jeff Green returned to Georgetown, I could argue the top four teams next year would be the Final Four teams we had this year. Then if we were lucky we'd get a chance to watch Florida vs. Ohio State again next April, which is to say we'd get a chance to watch Florida beat Ohio State again next April.

Boy that would be fun, wouldn't it?

 
 
South Florida AD makes astute hire in Heath
Updated: Apr/02/2007 06:58 PM

ATLANTA -- The list of potential candidates was long and varied, from Gregg Marshall to John Pelphrey to Fran Fraschilla and on down the line. But by being deliberate in the process, South Florida athletic director Doug Woolard might've ended up with the best possible candidate when he reached an agreement with Stan Heath early Monday.

Patience makes perfect?

Perhaps that's the case here. Because though Heath was fired from Arkansas last week, he hardly failed by most people's standards.

Heath's first three years at Arkansas were part of a rebuilding process after the tumultuous way Nolan Richardson's tenure ended, but the last two seasons featured NCAA Tournament appearances thanks to a string of stellar recruiting classes that made Arkansas the best available job on the market in terms of the opportunity to win immediately. Put another way, Heath was forced to leave a wonderful situation behind -- Dana Altman appreciates it, I'm certain -- and that must be frustrating on some level. But the fact that Heath proved at Arkansas to be a high-level recruiter no doubt aided his attempt to replace Robert McCullum at South Florida, and it's why the former Tom Izzo assistant was unemployed for just a few hours short of a full week.

Speaking of recruiting, if things break correctly, the state of Florida could be prime recruiting ground for Heath over the next few years. Truth is, the situations at Miami and Florida State are unstable because of a lack of NCAA Tournament appearances. So if those programs don't rise while Florida loses Billy Donovan and replaces him with a less-than-perfect candidate, Heath could exploit a potential down time in the state and build the same type of talented roster he put together at Arkansas in a place where expectations aren't so great.

"That South Florida job is not as bad as some think," one high-level Division I coach told me over the weekend. "I think the right person could win there."

Is Heath the right person?

We'll know soon enough.

But there is no debating the guy can recruit. So credit Woolard for recognizing as much and understanding the task of turning around his program needed to be placed in the hands of a man who seems capable of finally bringing Big East-caliber players to this Big East school.

 
 
 
 
 
 
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