Editor's Note: The Paths to Glory series is intended to serve as a starting point for your team. As we all know, baseball drafts become unpredictable as spring training progresses, but the three options provided here should put you on the right path.
If we were projecting every player to put up the exact same numbers he did last year, defending AL MVP Josh Donaldson would rank up there with Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt, giving this particular draft pool a super-elite foursome instead of just a threesome. But of course, his numbers aren't thought to be as sustainable as those of the other three.
He'll still probably be the fourth hitter off the board but almost certainly won't go any earlier in leagues -- not any worth their salt, anyway -- and may actually drop behind Clayton Kershaw as well.
He'll be the first "premium position" player to go off the board, though, which should provide some clarity for later picks. It could probably go without saying, but if you already have a third baseman, you don't have to worry about drafting a third baseman before all the worthy third basemen are gone.
Here are three paths you could take on Draft Day, with my take on each one.
Let's make it two for premium positions! Yeah, that's fun. Buster Posey would also make up for whatever Donaldson lacks in batting average -- which may be nothing at all, but he does have some downside there. Of course, by starting with those two, you'd be completely neglecting stolen bases through two rounds, but George Springer partly makes up for it
Maybe Charlie Blackmon, if he lasts that long, would make for a better choice than Yoenis Cespedes in Round 4 since your first three picks project for a combined 85 home runs or so and the stolen bases are still lacking, but he's a player owners seem to reach for. Either way, getting a second outfielder in this group of six would be ideal, especially since you already filled premium positions with your first two picks.
A second starting pitcher would really clinch it for this setup, especially since Chris Archer isn't the safest No. 1, but the impending doom at first base makes Freddie Freeman hard to pass up, especially since the Springer and Cespedes picks may have put you in a little bit of a hole in batting average. Freeman and Eric Hosmer are sort of the last line of defense at a position where most teams will have a stud. You don't want to be the guy forced to open with Mark Teixeira or Byung Ho Park there.
Like Posey, Dee Gordon would be filling a second premium position, but unlike Posey, he would take care of stolen bases right off the bat. It's a promising start, but it of course makes home runs a bigger priority going forward.
It'd be great if you could draft Springer in this scenario as well, but if he doesn't last to your pick, one of the first wave of starting pitchers would be the obvious choice. Drafting a power-hitting outfielder then becomes paramount, but whether it's Cespedes or Carlos Gonzalez or let's say Ryan Braun, it won't be the least worrisome pick you make. Given the home run hole you're in, it's a lot of faith to put in any of those three players.
The Michael Brantley pick kind of exacerbates it, too, since he's not only projected to miss the first month but is also not a credible threat for even 25 home runs. He keeps you strong in batting average, though, even if Gonzalez turns out to be a liability there.
The Cole Hamels pick could prove to be a mistake if it forces you to invest in a risky first baseman later, but after the way Chris Sale finished last season, you may appreciate having a quality No. 2.
In terms of statistical needs, Encarnacion provides pretty much the same things Donaldson does, which means your third hitter really should offer something different. Mookie Betts isn't as much of a steals source as you'd like, but he helps in batting average as well, counteracting Encarnacion's slightly negative contribution there.
You get an ace still, but as with the Posey scenario, the lack of a second starting pitcher is a real concern, especially since Jose Fernandez is an obvious injury risk. Squaring up stolen bases, though, could prove to be the greater challenge. The Brian Dozier pick is a rather desperate attempt to do so considering the second baseman swiped only 12 bags last year. He also puts you in a hole in batting average that you then need Corey Dickerson to correct.
In a perfect world, Jacoby Ellsbury is still a reliable enough source of batting average that you could go with him instead, but Dickerson more definitively meets that need even if he creates power overkill.
