As much as we would like to, we can't predict streaks. It takes some luck to accurately pinpoint when a streak will begin as well as knowing when it will end.

If we did have that superpower, we would all be a lot better at Fantasy. We can, however, identify which players are more likely to be streaky and which are likely to be consistent. Particularly in Head-to-Head leagues, it would be useful to know which generally-productive players are prone to having horrible weeks with some frequency. It is certainly worth knowing which players are the steadiest for the purposes of setting a daily Fantasy lineup, especially in 50/50 games.

A lot of strange things can happen over the course of a season, so in some instances, even the stats compiled over a 162-game schedule aren't always trustworthy. If we can establish that certain players -- particularly everyday players -- don't vary much in their week-to-week performance, it doesn't prove they will all be consistent in the next season or the season after that. It does tell us that a player has managed to avoid wild swings in their production over a long period of time. That can give us confidence that they at least have the ability to be consistent going forward.

You never know what can happen in a player's life, on or off the field. Injuries, personal crises, adjusting to an aging body, losing one's groove...any or all of these things can affect a player in a given season. Though we can't predict exactly when and how those factors will affect our players, being able to identify hitters who have shown a high level of consistency can give us a leg up on constructing a roster built to win over the course of a season.

In a step towards that end, I have analyzed the variation in weekly Fantasy point totals for all hitters this season. I have included all hitter stats through the end of Fantasy Week 25, so we have close to a full season's worth of data. For each player, I have calculated the mean and standard deviation of their weekly point totals on a per plate appearance basis (FPTS/PA), so we can establish their typical resting point in terms of production, as well as the typical degree to which that production varied from week to week for those scoring periods in which they played. Also, to ensure that we are only looking at players who have played at least a majority of the season in the majors, I have included only players who have generated stats for at least 13 of the 24 scoring periods (I combined the three days of Week 15 with all of Week 16 into one scoring period.).

While producing consistently from week to week can be an admirable trait in a hitter, it isn't necessarily a positive when the player in question has a low ceiling. Nick Markakis has had the least week-t0-week variation in Fantasy points production among regulars by far, yet he is on the fringes of being viable in standard mixed points leagues. Second place belongs to Giovanny Urshela, but his .605 OPS was of little help in any Fantasy format.

Instead of looking at week-to-week variation, we could define consistency as the frequency with which hitters exceed a certain minimum level of production. When we set that floor at 0.60 FPTS/PA, we get a list that includes many of Fantasy's elite hitters. As the table below shows, Jose Bautista and Paul Goldschmidt have been the best at avoiding mediocre or poor weeks. That may actually be understating the accomplishments of Bautista, Goldschmidt and their cohorts. A week in which a hitter meets or exceeds 0.60 FPTS/PA could be termed a "quality week." Evan Longoria, Jonathan Lucroy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kolten Wong and Welington Castillo are just some of hitters who have averaged 0.60 FPTS/PA over the course of this season.

While it's reassuring to know that Bautista and Goldschmidt rarely fall below a Longoria-type level of production for any given week, it's not terribly surprising. The hitters who look out of place on this list --Danny Valencia, Mitch Moreland and Brandon Guyer -- have exceeded expectations this year, but their per-week output has been enhanced by their limited overall use. This is less true for Valencia, who has been a regular since coming to Oakland in early August, but Moreland and Guyer have had limited exposure to the lesser side of their platoon splits. Though it's not fair to conclude that Moreland and Guyer are nearly on a par with Jose Abreu and Alex Rodriguez in terms of overall Fantasy value, their consistency does show that they have been reliable weekly and daily Fantasy options when the platoon splits have been in their favor.

Hitters with Most Weeks with at least 0.60 FPTS per PA
Name Mean No. of Weeks
Jose Bautista 0.90 21
Paul Goldschmidt 0.87 21
Buster Posey 0.76 19
Manny Machado 0.76 19
Bryce Harper 0.95 18
A.J. Pollock 0.83 18
Nelson Cruz 0.76 18
Charlie Blackmon 0.74 18
Josh Donaldson 0.89 17
Mike Trout 0.82 17
Joey Votto 0.81 17
Danny Valencia 0.81 17
Yoenis Cespedes 0.79 17
Jose Abreu 0.73 17
Alex Rodriguez 0.72 17
Mitch Moreland 0.66 17
Brandon Guyer 0.65 17

It turns out that several players on this list, most notably Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson, rank among the least consistent hitters on a week-to-week basis (there will be analysis of the streakiest hitters in a separate upcoming column). That won't matter to Fantasy owners, because their low weeks aren't all that low, with neither player having dipped down as low as 0.40 FPTS/PA in any given week. While it's obvious to start players who average at least 0.75 FPTS/PA every week (much less ones like Harper and Donaldson, who are in the neighborhood of 0.90), there is also value in starting lower-upside players who steadily offer 0.60 FPTS/PA.

The table below displays the 10 hitters who averaged at least 0.60 FPTS/PA over the course of the season and had the least week-to-week variation in their FPTS/PA output (as measured as standard deviation from their mean). Goldschmidt is an elite producer, and Brian Dozier and Charlie Blackmon are near-elite, but none of the others have earned those labels. Nonetheless, each has made a case for must-start status due to their consistency. Ender Inciarte and Jason Heyward have been the two most consistent quality producers this season, and neither has had a truly bad week all year. Though Inciarte missed time with a hamstring injury, when these outfielders played a full scoring period, they always averaged at least 0.40 FPTS/PA.

Perhaps the most surprising inclusion in these rankings is Randal Grichuk, who trails only Inciarte and Heyward in consistent quality production. As a classic all-or-nothing hitter with high strikeout, flyball and pull rates, it would be easy to lump Grichuk in with streaky sluggers like David Ortiz and J.D. Martinez, but he has been far steadier. Christian Yelich is about as different a hitter as one can find from Grichuk, but his inclusion is just as surprising, given his early struggles. However, since the first two months, which were punctuated by his back woes, Yelich has been incredibly consistent, with 11 of his last 13 weeks falling within the 0.60 to 0.90 FPTS/PA range. It would also seem that Moreland's appearances against lefties were sufficiently scattered so as not to impact his week-to-week consistency.

Greatest Week-to-Week Consistency, Nos. 1-10
Name STDEV MEAN MIN MAX
Ender Inciarte 0.21 0.62 0.41* 0.95
Jason Heyward 0.22 0.70 0.40 1.16
Randal Grichuk 0.22 0.72 0.33 1.19
Christian Yelich 0.22 0.61 0.07 0.90
Paul Goldschmidt 0.23 0.87 0.48 1.29
Mitch Moreland 0.24 0.66 0.13 1.16
Brian Dozier 0.24 0.69 0.26 1.04
Charlie Blackmon 0.24 0.74 0.13 1.24
Logan Forsythe 0.25 0.64 0.19 1.07
Carlos Santana 0.25 0.67 0.22 1.25

* Inciarte scored 0 points in Week 11, but he made just one plate appearance in the first game of the scoring period and was subsequently placed on the disabled list.

Among the 10 next-most consistent hitters, there is no one who has avoided disastrous weeks the way that Goldschmidt, Inciarte and Heyward have, but their standard deviations are well below the median mark of 0.34 within this 162-player sample. After a couple of seasons of erratic play, it's no longer fair to slap the streaky label on Starling Marte, who ranks as the 12th most consistent quality hitter. Jacoby Ellsbury also made the cut, as his struggles have been mainly confined to three weeks. As many predicted, Dee Gordon wasn't able to maintain the scalding pace he set in April, but regression hasn't been nearly as dramatic as many expected. Not only is Gordon still in the National League batting title race, but he ranks among the 20 most consistent hitters.

Rookies Eddie Rosario and Billy Burns have also exceeded the expectations of many owners. Not only have they been able to stick as regulars, but unlike Joc Pederson and Delino DeShields, their production hasn't sagged as the season has worn on.


Greatest Week-to-Week Consistency, Nos. 11-20
Name STDEV MEAN MIN MAX
Ben Revere 0.25 0.64 0.17 1.13
Starling Marte 0.25 0.72 0.23 1.16
Eddie Rosario 0.25 0.61 0.20 1.17
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.25 0.60 0.18 1.05
Xander Bogaerts 0.25 0.64 0.24 1.02
Martin Prado 0.26 0.60 0.13 1.19
Dee Gordon 0.26 0.71 0.21 1.23
Billy Burns 0.26 0.65 0.17 1.36
Adrian Beltre 0.26 0.67 0.16 1.08
Kyle Seager 0.26 0.66 0.22 1.21

So now we know Inciarte, Heyward, Marte, Burns and several others mentioned here have made it through nearly the entire length of a season with an extraordinary level of consistency. Should that count for much on Draft Day? Not nearly as much as your expectations for their overall performance, but given how closely clustered players can be at each of the positions, it's something that should make a player stand out among their cohorts in whatever preseason rankings you use. For example, I would see Inciarte having similar value to Jay Bruce and Adam Eaton for points leagues going into next season, but I would give priority to Inciarte due to this season's track record of consistency.

Consistency isn't everything, but if you're tired of your Fantasy fortunes being tied to the caprices of streaky hitters, now you have some names to consider when assembling your 2016 squad.