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One of the risks of the sabermetrics movement is that we sometimes don't treat players on an individual basis.

Most players' skill sets tend to fall within a fairly narrow range of possible outcomes, and it can be too easy to just assume each player will end up regressing to the same place.

There are, obviously, differences in each players' individual skill set and level, and this manifests itself in different ways. For instance, while most players' BABIP tends to fall between .290 and .300, Clayton Kershaw has held opposing hitters to a .271 mark for his career, so his .247 mark isn't actually that outlandish. Regression isn't the same for everyone.

However, those ranges do still matter, and they can have major impacts on production. Take home runs, for instance. From 2011 through 2015, no pitcher with at least 300 innings pitched had a home run to flyball ratio higher than Jason Marquis' 16.7 percent mark; on the other end of the spectrum, no player bested Greg Holland's 5.6 percent mark. Those numbers can fluctuate from year to year, but it's probably fair to say that's a reasonable range to expect pitchers' results to fall in.

Given that, we can identify some pitchers who fall outside of that range, and say they have had either good or bad luck. Of course, it isn't all luck for these pitchers, so we'll also take a look at how much of these early results we can expect to sustain themselves moving forward.

2016 HR/FB Leaders

1. Jose Quintana, White Sox 1.6%
With some of the pitchers coming up on the list, it makes sense that they might have lower-than-average home run rates, based on the parks they call home. It's hard to argue Quintana garners such a benefit from U.S. Cellular, however he has also been below nine percent in each of his previous two seasons, so there might be something to this, even when he eventually regresses.
2. Johnny Cueto, Giants 3.7%
Cueto has shown the ability to keep averages on balls in play down, with a .277 mark in that regard for his career, but that hasn't extended to keeping homers off the board: his 9.8 percent mark is right around the league average. However, pitching in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is quite different from AT&T Park, so it's not crazy to think we'll see improvement in this regard, even if he can't sustain this level.
3. Rich Hill, Athletics 4.1%
Like Cueto, Hill has moved from one of the worst parks in baseball for suppressing homers to one of the best, and Hill has historically done a pretty incredible job getting infield popups, with a 13.2 percent rate that has jumped to 19.7 percent since he made his return to the majors last season.
4. Chris Tillman, Orioles 5.1%
This has never been a particular strength for Tillman, and though he is inducing infield flyballs at a pretty solid rate, it's hard to imagine him being able to sustain quite this level of success overall.
5. Steven Wright, Red Sox 5.1%
It's so hard to say whether knuckleballers can keep anything they are doing, because it feels like so much of what they do is outside of what we typically expect from pitchers. The strangest thing about Wright is that he has yet to induce even a single infield flyball this season; knuckleballers have historically been very good at this. There is a reason I refer to knuckleball pitchers as "random number generators."

2016 HR/FB Losers

1. Cole Hamels, Rangers 25.6%
Hamels' rate spiked to a career-high rate when he got to Texas last season, so there might be something here. However, even that was just 13.2 percent, a far cry from this. Hamels has a lot of regression coming with homers, which should help make up for the regression he has coming with his strand rate (87.1 percent)
2. Jonathon Niese, Pirates 22.9%
Niese similarly ran into issues in this regard last season, when he sat at 14.3 percent for the full season. His infield flyball rate has also collapsed, which isn't unrelated, so Niese needs to improve in both regards moving forward.
3. Chris Archer, Rays 21.7%
Archer just isn't right right now, so it's no big surprise he is having trouble keeping the ball in the yard. He is getting hammered all over the field right now, with the highest BABIP and hard-hit rates of his career; these things are not exactly unrelated to his homer issues.
4. Mike Fiers, Astros 21.4%
Fiers has had issues with homers in the past, though more because he is a flyball pitcher than the fact that he gives up an unexpected rate of homers per fly ball. However, like Archer, Fiers sports an elevated hard-hit average (37.6 percent), so it's hard to argue he's just had bad luck. As has always been true with Fiers, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
5. Francisco Liriano, Pirates 21.4%
As with Fiers and Archer, Liriano isn't exactly the victim of tough luck so far, with a 36.5 percent hard-hit rate. There is especially good news for him, however, as his rare in this regard has been below 25.0 percent in each of the previous two seasons, and has been consistently been below 30.0 percent throughout his career. Expect better things moving forward once this normalizes a bit, assuming he can also get his walk issues under control too.
6. Max Scherzer, Nationals 20.6%
Homers are always going to be an issue for Scherzer as a flyball picture, but his rate here is twice what it has been in the past. With no negative indicators in his hard-hit rate or BABIP, this should improve dramatically in no time.
7. Mike Pelfrey, Tigers 20.4%
Pelfrey just doesn't fool many hitters very often, though he has actually historically been above-average when it comes to homer prevention, so this should regress at some point. Just not enough to make up for everything else he does poorly.
8. Scott Kazmir, 19.7%
Kazmir was dealing with discomfort in his throwing hand in April, but that doesn't quite explain his homer issues; he allowed five longballs in five April starts, and six in five in May so far. However, the rest of his game has improved as we've gone on, with his velocity creeping up and strikeouts coming with it, so there is reason to be optimistic right now.
9. Michael Pineda, Yankees 19.6%
This mark sat at 14.7 percent last season, and was a big part of why Pineda struggled to live up to his impressive peripherals. Even those peripherals aren't up to par this season, and with 210-plus innings of elevated homer rates under his belt, this might just be who Pineda is now.
10. Chase Anderson, 19.0%
At 13.4 percent for his career, this has been a constant issue for Anderson, who doesn't do much else well. Even with regression, he isn't Fantasy relevant.