We've had this discussion a few times on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast already, but I've been meaning to put it in writing. Seeing as he threw another quality start Thursday at the Cubs, I should probably hop to it before it's too late.
Assuming it isn't already.
Jeff Samardzija is about to blow up, y'all.
This isn't one of those "oh, well he has always been good, so you can trust him to come around" kind of calls. Quite the contrary. Samardzija is years removed from being anything more than a borderline starter in mixed leagues, and his 4.50 ERA through 10 starts would seem to suggest more of the same.
But what about his 1.12 WHIP?
Granted, WHIP isn't known for its predictive qualities, but its heavy influence in Fantasy Baseball may have tipped you off to the possibility that something different is happening here.
That walk Samardzija issued Thursday at the Cubs? It was his first in five starts. He has 44 strikeouts to one walk in 36 2/3 innings during that stretch, which gives him a 7.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the year.
Not sure what that means? Well, here are the strikeout-to-walk leaders from last year:
Rank | Pitcher | K/BB |
1 | Rick Porcello | 5.91 |
2 | Josh Tomlin | 5.90 |
3 | Chris Sale | 5.18 |
4 | Max Scherzer | 5.07 |
5 | Noah Syndergaard | 5.07 |
6 | Madison Bumgarner | 4.65 |
7 | Jose Fernandez | 4.60 |
8 | Masahiro Tanaka | 4.58 |
9 | David Price | 4.56 |
10 | 4.54 | |
11 | 4.48 | |
12 | 4.46 |
Aside from Josh Tomlin, it's a who's who of Cy Young contenders. And none of them were even close to what Samardzija has done so far (well ... Clayton Kershaw was that and then some, but he didn't have the innings to qualify). The last time Samardzija had a strikeout-to-walk ratio that would have put him in this range was 2014, when he settled at 4.70. It was his only year above 4.00.
It was also his only year with an ERA below 3.00, the year that made us believe he could be an ace in the first place. His 7-13 record was a source of frustration, sure, but he had a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in close to 220 innings, which are the kind of numbers we hope to get out of Johnny Cueto every year.
And the real-life decision-makers certainly viewed him as a front-line pitcher. Remember, that was the year the Athletics acquired Samardzija along with Jon Lester for one grand playoff push that ended with that fateful wild-card game against the upstart Royals. Samardzija is the reason the Cubs have Addison Russell today.
So what happened to him -- Samardzija, I mean? Well, he went to the White Sox, an organization that prefers its pitchers to live and die by the cutter. The problem is Samardzija's wasn't any good. When he began to feature it, his home runs spiked, his ERA soared, and his arsenal became more hittable overall, giving the Giants a $90-million reclamation project when he hit free agency that fall.
They wouldn't have given it to him if they didn't think they could cure him.
It took a year, but the cutter is more or less purged from Samardzija's arsenal and replaced by a slider that has produced its highest whiff rate ever. You care to guess when he had his next-highest? That's right: 2014.
But why the high ERA? Well, Samardzija has still had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, serving up three home runs Thursday. But six of his 10 home runs this year have come at either Chase Field or Wrigley Field, two of the more hitter-friendly venues. His home venue, AT&T Park, couldn't be any more pitcher-friendly, so taking regular turns there should help wash out those outlier outings. And even if the home run rate stays exactly where it is now, Samardzija's FIP suggests his ERA should be closer to 3.00.
He has also suffered from bad BABIP luck. His .320 mark is the highest of his career and 22nd-highest among qualifying pitchers. True, how much of it is luck and how much is Eduardo Nunez in left field (egad) is a matter of debate, but I'll always bank on regression to the mean. And regression to the mean here looks something like the Samardzija of 2014 -- or perhaps even better if the uptick in strikeouts continues.
As someone who generally values peripherals over base stats, buys into the narrative of the cutter gone wrong and remembers Samardzija's better days, I rank the 32-year-old 36th among starting pitchers moving forward and think he has genuine top-20 potential. Fewer and fewer pitchers do in an age of innings limits and escalating walk rates. Yet because of Samardzija's unsightly ERA and 1-6 record (which remains among the least predictive of stats even if one of the most influential in Fantasy), few view him in that light. You could get him as a throw-in in an outfielder exchange, potentially.
Now is the time to capitalize, before things take a clear turn for the better.
