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Could this be it? Is now finally the time?
Injuries took out two Dodgers pitchers in one fell swoop Tuesday, sending Scott Kazmir (neck) and Brett Anderson (blister) to the DL. Meanwhile, top prospect Jose De Leon continues to do his thing in the Pacific Coast League -- a hitter's league, mind you -- striking out 10 over seven one-hit innings Monday. He now has 32 strikeouts to two walks over his last 27 innings. That's Noah Syndergaard-type stuff.
He's too good for the minors, and he's already 24. What exactly is the holdup?
Yeah, the Dodgers could try their hand with Brock Stewart or a severely limited Julio Urias again, but last I checked, they're actually trying to win. Now is their time to pull away from the Giants, and the third most-talented arm in the organization is primed and ready to help. And unlike the second most-talented arm, Urias, De Leon has plenty of innings left in the tank after missing the first month with ankle and shoulder injuries. Ending this year with too few would make for a bigger problem for them next year.
Don't be stupid, Dodgers. Don't tease us again. Quit playing games with our waiver claims. Go ahead and take your time. Wait until the moment you actually need a replacement, Saturday, to make the announcement. That's fine.
Just make it the right one, for your sake and ours.
1. Cubs with clubs
A day after it goes on the site, I'm already having regrets about excluding Kris Bryant from the first overall pick discussion.
OK, so I didn't totally exclude him. He got an honorable mention at the end. But with five home runs in his past six games, he's becoming a prime candidate.
And he's not even the Cub who's improving his stock the most right now. No, Addison Russell is finally beginning to deliver on the potential that had him mentioned in the same breath as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor when he was coming up through the minors. Another home run Tuesday gives him five in his past five games and seven in his past 13. He's the third-best shortstop in Head-to-Head points leagues during that longer stretch, and going back even further, he's the fifth-best since the start of July.
It's as if he's trying to validate his All-Star selection after the fact.
And at only 22, he has so much improvement still ahead of him. Rare is the 21-year-old who arrives a finished product, which is what made the sudden changing of the guard at the hands of those other three so impressive.
Russell has an abnormally high soft contact rate, which is part of the reason he has a below-average .293 BABIP. Better pitch recognition will improve that while also cutting down on his strikeouts, which are already vastly improved from a year ago. He clearly has power, so if he gets that batting average up to .280-.290 range, shortstop becomes even more top-heavy.
Spoiler alert: Russell will be one of my top breakout candidates for next year. You can count on it.
2. Gray area
It took months for me to get Fantasy owners on board with the idea that Jon Gray is good.
In spite of the Coors effect, in spite of whatever his ERA happened to be at the time, the way he has pitched for the better half of the season has been nothing short of ace-caliber. So of course, as soon as we're all in agreement on that, his ownership rising to 88 percent at one point, he hits a rough patch, allowing 18 earned runs in 12 innings over his three starts prior to Tuesday.
So back to square one. The way Gray pitched Tuesday at the Brewers was -- hello again -- ace-caliber:
And yet his ERA for the year sits at 4.61, making him appear to be just another victim of Coors Field.
Believe me: I get it. My default position on any Rockies pitcher, no matter how talented, is defeatism. But I dare say they've never had a more talented pitcher than this one, and believe it or not, it shows in the numbers.
Gray's ERA was inflated by an awful two-start stretch at the start of the year, when he was still easing into the majors and hadn't yet realized how good he could be. In 21 starts since then, he's the 31st best starting pitcher in Head-to-Head points leagues, delivering a 4.14 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
So sure, not quite ace-caliber numbers anymore, but that ugly three-start stretch didn't ruin him and shouldn't ruin his reputation. He's still a pitcher you should be thrilled to have and should expect to start more often than not down the stretch.
3. Young and impressionable
The two rookie pitchers to capture our imagination most recently may have punched their tickets to dropsville Tuesday.
The most predictable was Reynaldo Lopez, who had thrown back-to-back gems against the Braves, recording 11 strikeouts in the most recent one, but had struggled against lineups of actual major league-caliber. So against such a lineup Tuesday, guess what happened.
Had I hoped for better? Yeah, because Lopez clearly has talent, boasting a triple-digit fastball and better-than-expected control for a rookie with that kind of stuff. He could have broken through against anybody, right? Maybe it just so happened to be against Atlanta. The two-start week kind of pushed us to commit right away even if the matchup warranted some skepticism.
Musgrove, though, I was all about. He allowed just three runs over his first 18 1/3 innings with two walks to 21 strikeouts after posting a 2.74 ERA this year in the minors, so to me, he seemed advanced beyond his years. And he still does, in some ways. His control is exceptional for a rookie. He'd already be first in walks per nine innings if he had the innings to qualify. But his last two starts have been ugly, to say the least, and in this developmental stage of his career, his control may actually be his worst enemy.
"I throw a lot of strikes," he told MLB.com. "That's been a strength for me. Up here, guys don't miss pitches as much. I'm going to have to learn to throw more quality balls in certain counts."
And I should emphasize that, yes, both of these pitchers are still in the development stage. We're not assessing them for the long haul here. As Fantasy owners, we're more interested in what they can do for us today, and over the last few years we've gotten so spoiled by rookies who've found immediate success that we forget that, historically, that's abnormal.
Keep an eye on both of these pitchers but don't feel like you have to continue to roster them. Do note, however, that Musgrove is projected to make two starts next week.
4. How good is Rodon?
Recently on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, I've taken some flak for not fully endorsing Carlos Rodon, who just delivered his fourth consecutive quality start Tuesday.
And yes, I have seen some growth from him this year. He has cut way down on his walk rate from a year ago, issuing 2.9 per nine innings compared to 4.6, but it hasn't greatly improved his efficiency, as evidenced by his innings, and seems to have compromised the bat-missing ability that made him so promising in the first place.
That's especially true lately. During this quality start streak, he has averaged just 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, which is even more underwhelming when you consider he's usually pitching only six innings at a time.
Compare that to someone like Sean Manaea, who has been a little more up and down over his last nine appearances (one in long relief) but still has a 3.14 ERA during that stretch and has put together several starts like Tuesday's in which he allowed one run on three hits over seven innings, striking out eight and walking two.
Over their last nine appearances, Manaea has three of seven innings or more compared to Rodon's zero. He has two of zero earned runs compared to Rodon's one. He has five of zero walks compared to Rodon's one. And if you compare their overall numbers during that stretch, it's pretty clear which of the two has been more effective:
How can I get behind Rodon when someone like Manaea is owned in 41 percent fewer leagues?
Frankly, I don't think either is must-own, but I'm glad Manaea is the one making two starts next week.
5. Slumping Salazar
Add Danny Salazar to the list of one-time Cy Young candidates who've become completely unraveled here in August. His second start back from an elbow issue was just as ugly as the first, and at this rate, it's anybody's guess how long it'll take him to shake off the rust.
Adding to the confusion is the fact he was just as bad before going on the DL. In fact, you might say his struggles inspired that respite. Over his past seven starts, his ERA has risen from 2.22 to 3.90. Of course, his velocity had declined before the DL stint and is back up again, so by that measurement, his health issues would seem to be behind him, which is why I'm presuming rust is the cause.
But how could you trust him right now? It's bad enough he was my 13th-ranked two-start pitcher coming into the week. I guess the silver lining is that we'll get to see him pitch one more time before having to set our lineups again. If he gets pummeled Sunday at the Rangers, your choice is pretty clear:
Stash him and hope he figures out in a side session what he should have on that rehab assignment that never was.