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So begins the Drew Pomeranz-to-Fenway Park experiment, in inauspicious fashion.
All five of the runs he allowed over three innings Wednesday came on home runs, the bane of every fly-ball left-handed pitcher's existence in that ballpark, as David Price owners know all too well.
It was Pomeranz's worst start of the season and a bad first impression, to be sure, but it also wasn't terribly meaningful in the grand scheme of things. A sample size of one is too small to draw conclusions or render forecasts, so all we can do is theorize. And the Red Sox didn't help much on that front, offering the usual cliches that may or may not pass as explanations.
"I think I just threw it in some bad spots. I was a little off in my rhythm and timing tonight," Pomeranz told the Boston Herald, with manager John Farrell adding, "the overall command wasn't what he's typically going to show."
Let's not freak out just yet, OK? If he put up this same line in a Padres uniform, we would have shrugged it off as just a bad start -- and maybe that's what it was. Standing on its own, all it means is that if you hoped to capitalize on the increased media attention by selling high on Pomeranz, you've probably missed your chance.
1. Help is on the way
Normally, my observations don't extend to the minor leagues, especially since I have a regular column devoted just to minor-leaguers. But Tyler Skaggs is less a minor-leaguer than a rehabilitating major-leaguer, working his way back from Tommy John surgery in 2014.
And he's setting a new standard for rehab assignments in the process.
Tuesday's start alone might have accomplished that. He struck out 12 over 5 2/3 one-hit innings, but when you consider it was his second straight one-hit outing, the first spanning seven innings and featuring 14 strikeouts, you might wonder if he passed up the new elbow ligament for a shiny new robot arm.
Don't forget, though, he was once a top prospect in the Diamondbacks organization, the prize of the deal that sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona once upon a time, and prior to tearing his UCL in 2014, he was beginning to find his form in the majors, buoyed by a big curveball and emerging changeup.
With Nick Tropeano only recently tearing his UCL, the Angels have a clear opening for Skaggs, and with the dearth of reliable starting pitchers in Fantasy Baseball this year, I'm guessing you do, too.
We've been all been so focused on Zack Wheeler's and Alex Cobb's recoveries from Tommy John surgery that we may have fallen asleep on this one.
2. Steve Pearce rides again
Just in case I hadn't gotten my fill of Steve Pearce talk before he landed on the DL with a strained hamstring in late June, the Rays have given me reason to pick up the megaphone again.
He has started both of their games since his return, one against a righty and one against a lefty, and that's without the DH spot available. Even playing a hitter down because of an ill-timed series in an NL park, Pearce is a priority for them.
And he should be.
He's batting .322 with a .945 OPS in 183 at-bats this season only two years after batting .293 with a .930 OPS in 338 at-bats for the Orioles. What happened the year in between really shouldn't be a concern anymore. There's a track record for this kind of production, and his peripherals support it. His 16.0 percent strikeout rate, which would rank about 50th among qualifying hitters, gives him a not-so-ridiculous .348 BABIP. He may not hit .322 all year, but he'll continue to hit for average. And his power was never in question.
There was some concern the Rays would go back to platooning Pearce with Logan Morrison like earlier in the season, but no. They realize he's the best hitter they have -- or maybe neck-and-neck with Evan Longoria -- which means, at 43 percent, he's quite possibly the most under-owned player in CBSSports.com leagues.
I mean, he's triple-eligible. Yeah, second base is deeper than ever, but anyone who's starting a Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera type in the outfield should take notice.
3. Gimme Hendricks?
I spent a fair amount of time updating my rest-of-season rankings Wednesday afternoon, but then when I tweeted them out that evening, the positioning of one particular player met with notable dissatisfaction.
@CBSScottWhite it's time to move Hendricks to 35 in rankings. Gray-Jeff-Wacha are comps w several pts higher ERA. #GregMadduxJr#Cubs
— Merritt Burns (@Burnsme) July 21, 2016
@CBSScottWhite how is a guy like Sonny Gray ranked 26 spots better than Hendricks? Anyone?
— Justin Dufresne (@JD206) July 21, 2016
@CBSScottWhite 60 pitchers ahead of Hendricks?? I don't understand
— KBrady (@abbey3112) July 21, 2016
It didn't help that Kyle Hendricks was in the middle of throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Mets. The win brings his season numbers to this:
Pretty good, right? Better than you'd expect for the 61st-ranked starting pitcher, particularly in this year's pitcher environment. And yet those numbers have made him only the 25th-best pitcher in Head-to-Head points leagues so far.
He's a little higher in Rotisserie, where ratio stats like ERA and WHIP directly impact production, but even there, he's not helping you as much in those two categories as you think. And while you might say, "Well, gee, 25th is still much better than 61st," my thinking is he's only 25th even with that ace-caliber ERA. If, moving forward, he has the 3.33 ERA his FIP suggests he should or the 3.95 ERA he had with similar peripherals last year, by how much will he trail the other pitchers with mid-threes ERAs?
The bigger problem is Joe Maddon. For whatever reason -- and maybe it's a good one -- he rarely lets Hendricks pitch the minimum six innings required for a quality start, doing so only four times in Hendricks' last six starts even though the right-hander has allowed a total of three earned runs during that stretch. And pitching even deeper is out of the question. Only twice all season has Hendricks completed seven innings.
The result is that, even with those stellar ratios, he has just 10 quality starts this season -- or two fewer than Martin Perez. And even in leagues where quality starts don't count for anything, that's a problem because it greatly reduces his wins potential. Leaving so much to the bullpen, he's lucky to be 9-6. Last year, with an ERA closer to expectations, he went 8-7 across 32 starts -- and that was with a better strikeout rate.
So if he's only now top-25 with a good record and outlandish ERA, what happens when he himself regresses and then his bullpen doesn't come through? I suspect that's more likely than Maddon loosening the reins, and it probably drops him outside the top 50. Maybe 61 is a little low, but the pitchers are pretty interchangeable that far down the rankings.
The outrage tells me he's a player to shop in the interim.
4. Immediate results
I don't mean to rehash my column from earlier this week, when I wrote about the 12 pitchers who I thought had the most room to improve, but three saw fit to cooperate Wednesday, showing the extent of their upside amid an underwhelming season.
And just like that, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson and Gio Gonzalez are on your short list of players to add.
That's if they're still available, of course, which is more likely for Hellickson than the other two, but none is owned across all 10 of my leagues. And any could see his season turn on a dime.
Pineda actually leads the AL in strikeout rate but has gotten burned by home runs, including an inordinate number of non-solo shots, but shutting out a lineup on a historic home run pace in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium should inspire confidence.
Hellickson has a career-high strikeout rate, a career-low walk rate, a career-low fly-ball rate and yet somehow a career-high home run rate. So that's bound to normalize. His changeup is also the best swing-and-miss pitch in baseball -- no, really, the numbers say so -- so a move out of hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park to a contender will do him a world of good.
Gio Gonzalez's performance Wednesday wasn't quite as eye-opening, but he's another pitcher getting burned by the long ball -- even more inexplicably than the other two given his ground-ball tendencies. With a strikeout and walk rate in line with career norms, he has a chance to be the same 3.50-ERA pitcher he has always been to close out the season. No guarantees with any of them, of course, but each offers more hope than anything you'll find on the waiver wire right now.
(Except maybe Tyler Skaggs.)
5. Scrubby infielders make noise
In their doubleheader Wednesday, the Cardinals and Padres each saw something that they hadn't seen from one of their own hitters since 1999 -- a home run in both games.
Naturally, Jedd Gyorko and Ryan Schmipf were the ones to accomplish the feat, owned in 8 and 2 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, respectively. So ... good for them, right?
It's weird to dismiss this kind of performance from two middle infielders, but that's the state of Fantasy Baseball right now. Gyorko actually homered three times between the two games to give him 11 in 170 at-bats overall. That's like a 35-homer pace over a full season, and with Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko sidelined by injuries, he's suddenly in line for everyday at-bats. But even if he gets them, it doesn't move the needle in standard mixed leagues. Marcus Semien, an everyday player all season, is on a 34-homer, 15-steal pace, and he's only 68 percent owned.
Schmipf has already been playing every day for the Padres and is up to seven homers in 75 at-bats -- and with a high walk rate to boot. It's hardly an aberration for him after four straight 20-homer seasons in the minors, but a 28-year-old minor-leaguer isn't going to a find a home in an environment where Steve Pearce is only 43-percent owned.
You'll want to keep an eye on them in case they go the Eduardo Nunez route and really begin to distinguish themselves, but for now, the only Fantasy owners who can get excited about these performances are those in NL-only leagues.
