Fantasy Relief: Is Cook playing with fire?
Ryan Cook has been lights out for the Athletics since taking over as closer. But Michael Hurcomb goes deeper into the numbers and finds a somewhat different story in his latest edition of Fantasy Relief.
There might be space on the Ryan Cook bandwagon, but I'm hesitant to jump on. His numbers are so astronomically off the charts, it just feels like the bottom has to fall out and the A's will be making a third change at closer at some point this season.
Bob Melvin is a master of deception. When he removed Brian Fuentes from the closer's role on June 9, the A's manager said he would consider Fuentes, previous closer Grant Balfour and Cook for save opportunities moving forward. It seemed logical that Cook would be the guy to inherit the role since Balfour and Fuentes got their chances, but Melvin said he didn't want to give Cook the full-time gig because he wanted him available to use in other high-leverage situations. Well wouldn't you know, Cook has recorded the last four saves for the A's through Tuesday.
Though he indicated other intentions, you can't really blame Melvin for leaning on Cook, who has a 0.59 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 28 relief outings. He is also striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. Those numbers are fine and dandy, but some of Cook's other numbers scare me.
Let's start with his walk rate. Cook is walking 4.9 batters per nine innings. He isn't the first hard-throwing closer to have control problems. Jose Valverde and John Axford are known to have suspect walk rates, yet have been effective overall in their given roles. However, Cook has just a 46.2 percent first-pitch strike rate this season, which puts him in the bottom five in the majors among relievers. Rafael Dolis has the worst (44.6 percent) and he was demoted to the minors after losing his gig as the Cubs' closer, and wouldn't you know two spots behind Cook is Fuentes, who is throwing first-pitch strikes just 48.5 percent of the time.
Another glaring red flag for me is Cook's .134 BABIP, which is well below the norm and his career average as a reliever. When Cook converted to a reliever in the minors in 2011, he had a .245 BABIP at Double-A and a .283 BABIP at Triple-A. Even when he was in the majors last year, he had a .423 BABIP. It seems Cook's luck is bound to run out eventually.
Cook also has an outstanding 92.6 percent strand rate and 10.6 percent line-drive rate this season. The league average for strand rate is 70 percent to 72 percent and line-drive rate is 20 percent. Even when Craig Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year honors in 2011 he had an 80.7 percent strand rate and 15.4 percent line-drive rate.
Lastly, as you might know, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a measuring tool of what a player's ERA should look like over a given period and xFIP is calculated the same way but replaces a pitcher's home run total with an estimate of how many homers they should have allowed. Well, Cook's ERA might be 0.59, but his FIP is 2.73 and his xFIP is 4.09, indicating a market correction is likely coming.
If I were a stock broker, you might hear me screaming on the other end of the phone, "Sell! Sell! Sell!"
Each week we'll break down closer situations worthy of further examination ...
Seattle: Like Melvin, Mariners manager Eric Wedge also had a quick change of heart. A week ago he was ready to transition Brandon League back into the closer's role. However, a week later he said he will stick by current closer Tom Wilhelmsen for the time being. But the short-term could very well turn into the long-term for Wilhelmsen. The Mariners could still unload League as the trade deadline nears, and Wilhelmsen's numbers right now don't suggest a dramatic decline is coming. He has a .292 BABIP and his FIP (2.70) is actually lower than his current ERA (3.00). His biggest hurdle might be how he performs at the first sign of adversity. I endorse Fantasy owners in mixed leagues adding Wilhelmsen (owned in 43 percent of leagues) off waivers.
|1.||Jose Quintana , RP, White Sox||39|
|2.||Lance Lynn , RP, Cardinals||34|
|3.||Garrett Richards , RP, Angels||33.5|
|4.||Luis Mendoza , RP, Royals||32.5|
|5.||Matt Moore , RP, Rays||31|
|6.||Felix Doubront , RP, Red Sox||29.5|
|7.||Mike Fiers , RP, Brewers||26.5|
|8.||Ronald Belisario , RP, Dodgers||26.5|
|9.||Tim Collins , RP, Royals||22|
|10.||Carlos Villanueva , RP, Blue Jays||20.5|
Chicago Cubs: I understand Cubs manager Dale Sveum wanting to solidify roles in his bullpen, but is bringing Carlos Marmol back as the closer going to make him sleep easy at night? Marmol lost the job earlier this season because he had trouble throwing strikes. It's still not like he's a shutdown reliever. In nine appearances since coming off the disabled list in late May, Marmol has walked seven batters and posted a 4.32 ERA in 8 1/3 innings. We are seeing some improvements. He has thrown 58 percent of strikes in his last eight outings, which is up from 54 percent in his first 15 appearances (11 1/3 innings). He's also increased his strikes looking rate from 20 percent to 21 percent in those timeframes, but I wouldn't say Marmol is off the hot seat. It seems if Marmol were to lose the job again, then Sveum might just alternate save chances between James Russell and Shawn Camp .
Minnesota: Speaking of a lefty-righty closer combo that seems to be manager Ron Gardenhire's choice when Matt Capps is sidelined. Gardenhire said after Capps sat this weekend with a sore shoulder that Jared Burton and Glen Perkins would be up for save chances based on matchups. Capps is only sidelined for the short-term, so Gardenhire could always change his mind if it becomes a long-term situation. Perkins would seem to be the favored closer, but if you remember Twins general manager Terry Ryan didn't want to promote Perkins to the closer's role after Joe Nathan signed with the Rangers. Ryan said, "History says you might want to have somebody with experience." Well, Burton closed games in the minors and Perkins didn't, so I wouldn't sleep on Burton if the Twins' need an alternate closer at some point.
Detroit: Phil Coke was called upon for a save Tuesday against the Cardinals after Jose Valverde was unavailable with a wrist injury. Manager Jim Leyland said earlier this year that Coke would be used in save situations if Valverde was unavailable and the matchups called for it. The Tigers were set to face three left-handed hitters in the ninth inning Tuesday, which is why Coke received the call over Joaquin Benoit . Valverde has been diagnosed with a sprained right wrist and hopes to avoid the disabled list. If he has to miss extended time, then Benoit would still likely be the first option for saves, with Coke as the backup closer. Coke is a workhorse in the Tigers' bullpen and it doesn't seem Leyland would want to pigeonhole him into one role.
Milwaukee: John Axford has been off in June. He is 1-2 with an 11.25 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and three blown saves in eight outings. His latest came Tuesday against the Blue Jays, when he surrendered two homers in the ninth inning. Axford has allowed three homers in June after not allowing one in the previous two months. Manager Ron Roenicke can't put his finger on what's troubling Axford, but he backed him as his closer Wednesday. One of Axford's biggest problems is falling behind hitters. He has already issued six walks in eight June innings, and both of his surrendered homers Tuesday came on 3-1 pitches. Perhaps a saving grace for Axford is that setup man Francisco Rodriguez has also had his struggles this season, so his presence isn't forcing Roenicke to make a change. But if Axford's problems persist, then maybe Milwaukee will turn to K-Rod.
|1.||Tim Collins , RP, Royals||17|
|2.||Ronald Belisario , RP, Dodgers||18|
|3.||Carlos Villanueva , RP, Blue Jays||35|
|4.||Chad Durbin , RP, Braves||40|
|5.||Brayan Villarreal , RP, Tigers||54|
|6.||Freddy Garcia , RP, Yankees||55|
|7.||Matt Belisle , RP, Rockies||56|
|8.||Sean Marshall , RP, Reds||60|
|9.||Jamey Wright , RP, Dodgers||61|
|10.||Matt Albers , RP, Red Sox||63|
Washington: Drew Storen is expected to return to the major-league roster before the All-Star break, barring any setbacks in his recovery. Storen has been sidelined all season due to April elbow surgery, and the Nationals closer situation had been a carousel of uncertainty before Tyler Clippard brought stability to the role. But as good as Clippard has been, Storen is expected to regain the closer's job once active. Fantasy owners might want to deal Clippard while his Fantasy value is still high.
Pittsburgh: Manager Clint Hurdle hinted over the weekend that it was going to take an impressive offer for the Pirates to deal closer Joel Hanrahan . It makes sense because Hanrahan isn't slated to become a free agent until after the 2013 season, so the Pirates don't have to rush into a trade this summer. But if something did transpire with Hanrahan, then Juan Cruz , who filled in as closer earlier this season when Hanrahan was unavailable, would the logical choice to ascend to the closer's role. Unless, the Pirates unload him in a trade since he's set to become a free agent this offseason. Then, the next likely choice would be Jason Grilli , who is enjoying a career resurgence.
Call to the 'pen
Each week we'll break down pertinent Fantasy news with setup men and other relievers ...
Hisashi Iwakuma is moving up the Mariners' bullpen ladder. Manager Eric Wedge said Sunday that Iwakuma will be used more frequently in setup situations. Iwakuma has mostly pitched in losses or blowout wins this year. Iwakuma might soon be worth adding in leagues that reward for holds ... Kris Medlen 's performance in the minors as a starter was less-than-spectacular, so Atlanta added him back to the bullpen last week. However, an injury to starter Brandon Beachy could mean the Braves reconsider adding Medlen to the rotation, especially if Jair Jurrjens bombs in his return to the majors ... Yankees manager Joe Girardi is comfortable using Boone Logan as a left-handed setup man. Since May 11, Logan has a 2.25 ERA, 18 strikeouts, seven holds, one win and one save in his last 18 appearances (12 innings). Logan is developing into a viable Fantasy reliever in leagues that reward for holds ... It's been a bumpy ride the last few years for Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario . He missed last season because of visa issues and missed the start of the 2012 season while serving a 25-game suspension for a positive drug test. But now that Belisario's off-the-field issues are behind him, he's been one of the more steady arms in the Dodgers' bullpen. Belisario is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his first 21 2/3 innings this season. He also has six holds. Belisario has been getting late-inning work and seems to be an alternate setup man to Josh Lindblom . Belisario has emerged as a low-end Fantasy option for holds ... The Orioles bullpen has been outstanding in 2012, and 34-year-old veteran reliever Luis Ayala has played a huge part in the bullpen's resurgence. Ayala is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, one save and six holds in 27 outings. He also has walked just five batters in 31 innings. Ayala pitches in multiple situations for the O's and is even used in multi-inning situations, so he doesn't see a steady diet of hold situations. Ayala remains a very low-end Fantasy reliever.
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