Setting the Trends: Iwakuma might surprise you
Need a darkhorse candidate to give you some points down the stretch? Our Nando Di Fino takes a look at the latest movers and shakers in Fantasy Baseball in his latest Setting the Trends.
The stage was pretty much all set for Hisashi Iwakuma to succeed in his breakout start last Sunday: stuck in a relief role all season long, the Japanese righty was given his first start on July 2, throwing 71 pitches against Baltimore, allowing three runs and striking out four. His next start, while still being stretched out, had him throwing 85 pitches against Texas, allowing four runs in five innings, with no strikeouts.
And then he hit the 90-pitch plateau.
Iwakuma's next three games saw him striking out 23 batters in 19 innings against the Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays. He threw 93, 95 and 109 pitches, respectively. His ERA was 1.89 across those three starts, with a 1.21 WHIP. And some of us saw it coming: Iwakuma, over five seasons in Japan, had always been a starter. He threw 16 complete games. He had a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. In 2008, he had 21 wins and a 1.87 ERA. If these numbers all sound familair, it's because they are strikingly similar to those of Orioles hurler Wei-Yin Chen while he was pitching in Japan:
Iwakuma: Five seasons, 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, best
season was 1.87 ERA
Chen: Four seasons, 2.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, best season was 1.54 ERA
Granted, there are some differences between the two, including their age (Iwakuma is 31, Chen is 27), but Iwakuma does have a couple things working to his advantage -- namely, his spacious home park and having fewer innings on his arm this season.
To the naked eye, Iwakuma may look rather pedestrian: 4.10 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings. But if you peel back a couple layers and focus on what he'll be doing the rest of this year, he could turn out to be a tremendous bargain for those in deep leagues -- and possibly beyond.
On to the Roster Trends!
|1.||Matt Harvey , SP, NYM||50|
|2.||Ryan Ludwick , OF, CIN||26|
|3.||Josh Rutledge , SS, COL||25|
|4.||Greg Holland , RP, KC||23|
|5.||A.J. Griffin , SP, OAK||22|
|6.||Chris Johnson , 3B, ARI||21|
|7.||Kris Medlen , RP, ATL||19|
|8.||Starling Marte , OF, PIT||17|
|9.||Carlos Gomez , OF, MIL||16|
|10.||Hisashi Iwakuma , RP, SEA||14|
Most Added Highlights
, SP, NYM
Jump in Ownership: 50 percent (from 31 percent to 81 percent)
Reason for the jump: Through two starts, Harvey -- a two-start pitcher in Week 18 -- has a 1.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings pitched.
Why you should join the crowd: One of the Mets' top prospects, Harvey has been nothing short of dazzling in his first two major league appearances, allowing just two earned runs between two west coast starts (@ARI and @SF) to begin his career. The 23-year-old had struck out 112 in 110 innings at Buffalo this year before his call-up and manhandled an Arizona lineup that produced the third-most runs in the month of July.
Devil's Advocate: Harvey hasn't had what one would call an overwhelmingly impressive minor league career. In 12 starts at Double-A Binghamton last year, he had a 4.53 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. This season, with Triple-A Buffalo, Harvey had a 3.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. His strikeout rate was still impressive, at around 9.4/9, but he did have a somewhat high walk rate (3.9). And it might not be wise to rely on Harvey for the playoff push in head-to-head leagues: ESPN New York reports Harvey will have an innings limit.
|1.||Starling Marte , OF, PIT||49|
|2.||Mark Reynolds , 3B, BAL||43|
|3.||Erik Bedard , SP, PIT||43|
|4.||Justin Ruggiano , OF, MIA||32|
|5.||Chris Carter , 1B, OAK||28|
, OF, CIN
Jump in Ownership: 26 percent (from 19 percent to 45 percent)
Reason for the jump: Ludwick had a monster July, with a .333 average, seven home runs and a 1.089 OPS. In his last four games, he's hitting .533 with four home runs, 12 RBI and a 1.963 OPS.
Why you should join the crowd: First and foremost, Ludwick has been playing regularly in the Reds lineup, only occasionally taking a seat for Chris Heisey or Xavier Paul . His 19 home runs this season have been very quiet: he has as many as Trevor Plouffe and more than Adrian Beltre , Mike Trout , Paul Konerko and Prince Fielder . And this power surge is nothing new for Ludwick -- in his only season with 500 or more at-bats (2008), he hit 37 home runs.
Devil's Advocate: Ludwick's average could potentially drag down a Fantasy team -- even though he's currently hitting .264, he was hitting .243 a week ago. Over the last two seasons, he hit a combined .244. And, while he has been playing regularly, he isn't playing every day -- only once this season has he managed to start in five or more consecutive games (June 6-16).
|Player||Number of trades in last 7 days|
|1.||Jonathan Papelbon , RP, PHI||381|
|2.||Joe Nathan , RP, TEX||378|
|3.||Jason Motte , RP, STL||371|
|4.||Huston Street , RP, SD||371|
|5.||Jose Valverde , RP, DET||370|
, RP, ATL
Jump in Ownership: 19 percent (from 3 percent to 22 percent)
Reason for the jump: Medlen, now a member of Atlanta's rotation, allowed one run on four hits over five innings Tuesday, lowering his ERA to 2.43.
Why you should join the crowd: Medlen, to put it simply, is a very good pitcher. He may not overwhelm batters with strikeouts -- that ship might have sailed after his Tommy John surgery in 2010 -- but he has great control (1.05 WHIP the last two seasons) and can put himself in position to win games as a starting pitcher.
Devil's Advocate: It's somewhat difficult to get an exact handle on what kind of starter Medlen will be, since his past is complicated by both injury and his role as mainly a reliever. In the majors, just 19 of his 109 appearances were as a starter. And of his 105 appearances in the minors, only 26 were starts, and three of those came earlier this year when he was sent to Triple-A to stretch out. That experiment was quickly scuttled after Medlen compiled a 4.72 ERA in 13 1/3 IP. The silver lining to his otherwise unimpressive three-game stretch of starting was that he managed to strike out 12 batters in that span. So he might have an uptick in his K-rate coming, but chances are he simply eschews strikeouts for efficiency.
|1.||Trevor Bauer , SP, ARI||41|
|2.||Lucas Duda , OF, NYM||36|
|3.||Wil Myers , OF, KC||34|
|4.||Drew Smyly , SP, DET||23|
|5.||Justin Smoak , 1B, SEA||21|
, OF, PHI
Jump in Ownership: 9 percent (from 10 percent to 19 percent)
Reason for the jump: After trading away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino in deadline deals, the Phillies called up Domonic Brown , a top-five prospect coming into the 2011 season.
Why you should join the crowd: Brown, who was hitting .310 between two levels of the minors this year, is a former top prospect who was as close to "can't miss" status as possible. In seven seasons, he has hit 20 or more doubles four times, had 20 or more steals twice, and hit 20 or more home runs once. His career batting average in the minors is .296. It looks like Brown will play every day for the Phillies, meaning he'll have plenty of chances to live up to his prospect status as the year winds down.
Devil's Advocate: This isn't Brown's first go-round in the majors. In fact, Brown had two previous stretches, in 2010 and 2011. In total, he hit .236, with seven home runs and five steals over 246 at-bats. He also had 13 doubles in that span. Furthermore, after hitting 20 home runs in the minors during the 2010 season, his power took a nosedive -- a .980 OPS in 2010 dropped to .809 last year and .833 in 2012.
Is there any flipside to that?: There might be. While Brown's been labeled a disappointment for the rather weak showings with the Phillies, if you average out his numbers across a full 600 at-bat season, it's not terrible: about 17 home runs, 12 steals, and 30 doubles. One would assume that his average would rise as he gets more accustomed to major league pitching, as well. On top of that, there's an encouraging sign of a power resurgence, as Brown had 20 doubles in 239 at-bats to far this year.
, RP, HOU
Jump in Ownership: 5 percent (from 8 percent to 13 percent)
Reason for the jump: Wilton Lopez has been the named the closer for your Houston Astros.
Why you should join the crowd: Just by process of elimination, Lopez is worth a move -- he snatched the closer job from the more-established Francisco Cordero and was offically given the job by manager Brad Mills . Additionally, Lopez is already having a nice season, with a 2.52 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 40 games.
Devil's Advocate: We'll give you three:
1. Lopez was scratched from Tuesday's game with elbow soreness. He hasn't pitched since July 29, although the team claims he is now fine. But where there's smoke, there's often fire.
2. Francisco Cordero still lurks. From 2004 to 2011 he averaged 38 saves per season. His 329 saves are second-most among active players.
3. Lopez plays for the Houston Astros, who had three wins in all of July. Granted, three of their losses came courtesy of Cordero, but it still leaves Lopez looking forward to just a handful of save opportunities in the next two months.
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