If his mega deal with the Diamondbacks this offseason didn't clue you in, Zack Greinke was pretty good last year. His 1.66 ERA not only led baseball but was also the best for any starting pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. Would you believe, though, that he didn't even rank among the top five in FIP, which estimates ERA based on the ratios a pitcher directly controls? Specifically, Greinke's strikeout rate wasn't quite up to snuff. He made up for it with a stellar walk rate, but still, if he's allowing that much contact, it's fair to assume more of those batted balls will sneak through next season, bringing his ERA back to the mid-2.00s like in 2013 and 2014. It doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher or couldn't serve as your ace. It's just that if you draft him based on last year's numbers, you'll probably get a top-10 starting pitcher at a top-five cost.
Zack Greinke is coming off one of the most historic seasons in recent baseball history. He was the first pitcher since Greg Maddux to post an ERA below 1.7 and a WHIP below 0.9. Of course, it was historic for several other reasons as well. Most notably, of the 17 pitchers to post those numbers in the past Greinke had the highest FIP (2.76) by nearly a half a run. More telling, that FIP doesn't even take into account Greinke's 7.3 percent HR/FB rate. Factoring that number in, Fangraphs comes up with an xFIP of 3.22 which is probably a more accurate representation of what Greinke's ERA should be in 2016. That ERA is will be fine as long as he matches his 19 wins and 222 innings from 2015 and strikes more batters out. None of those outcomes are particularly likely and neither is Greinke finishing as a top ten pitcher in 2016.
Greinke agreed to a six-year, $206 million contract with the Diamondbacks on Friday, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The financial details are coming to light, and they are eye-popping. Greinke's $34.3 million average annual salary will be the highest in Major League Baseball history, though there will reportedly be deferrals until some of the later years of the contract. Regardless, it was too good of a deal to pass up for Greinke, who was said to be considering a return to Los Angeles or signing with San Francisco. The change in home parks could hurt him some, but Greinke should get plenty of run support on a Diamondbacks team that finished second in the NL in runs scored last season with 720.
Greinke agreed to a contract with the Diamondbacks on Friday, pending a physical, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Details are still somewhat scarce, but multiple outlets are reporting that it's a done deal, with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports adding that it's a six-year contract. It was believed Greinke had narrowed his decision down to the Dodgers and Giants, but Arizona swooped in and landed the ace it so desperately coveted.
Greinke rejected the Dodgers' qualifying offer Friday and will remain a free agent. This was more of a formality than anything else, as there was no chance Greinke would accept the one-year, $15.8 million deal. The 32-year-old is in line for a massive contract, potentially the most lucrative one of the 2015 offseason, and the Dodgers will now get a draft pick as compensation if he doesn't return to Los Angeles.
Greinke was extended a qualifying offer by the Dodgers on Friday, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports. The move is simply a procedural one, as even if Greinke returns to the Dodgers, as many believe will happen, it won't be on the qualifying offer. The 32-year-old had his best season yet in 2015 and will likely earn a massive contract in free agency, despite his age.