Twenty-four hours ago, the Eastern Conference playoff picture looked pretty straightforward. Despite LeBron James' public grumbling about the need for more play-making help, smart money was on the Cavaliers to make a third straight appearance in the NBA Finals, with the Celtics, Raptors, and Wizards just hoping to give them a fight.
That might have changed Tuesday, with a couple of true bombshell news items coming down in quick succession. First, the Cavaliers announced All-Star power forward Kevin Love will be out for the next six weeks while recovering from arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies in his left knee. Minutes later, Yahoo Sports reported the Raptors pulled off a major trade, acquiring Serge Ibaka from the Magic in exchange for Terrence Ross and a 2017 first-round pick.
In the long run, this sequence of events may not mean anything. Ibaka certainly hasn't been much of a difference maker in Orlando, and Love's timetable puts him back on the court with a few weeks left in the regular season to prepare for the playoffs. However, these moves certainly shake up the Fantasy landscape, with three teams set to see serious changes to their rotations heading into the All-Star break.
Let's break them down one by one:
Raptors acquire Serge Ibaka
This is probably the side of the move that makes the least impact for Fantasy.
Ibaka may take a small step back, likely to where he was in his final season in Oklahoma City, when he averaged 12.6 points on 11.1 shots per game. Ibaka hit just 0.8 3-pointers per game as well, but it's fair to assume he will shoot better than the 32.6 percent he managed on long-range attempts, so expecting a 3-pointer per game is a fair bet.
It's a minor downgrade for Ibaka, who has been a top-35 player in Rotisserie scoring formats this season. However, he was still a borderline top-60 option last season, so it shouldn't be too steep a decline.
Magic acquire Terrence Ross
The Ross side of this move doesn't make much of a difference, because he simply hasn't developed much in his NBA career. He's a good shooter and defender, but doesn't do much else and will likely settle in as a 15-PPG scorer with limited peripheral stats in a best-case scenario in Orlando.
The more interesting prospect here is what it could mean for the Magic frontcourt. Orlando opted to add Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green in addition to Ibaka this offseason, leading to a big overcrowding issue. Aaron Gordon has spent the season at small forward, and it seems to have stunted his growth, because the 21-year-old just isn't the kind of shooter that position requires these days. He is best suited to play the four, and hopefully, this will give him an extended opportunity to do so down the stretch.
That is exciting, because Gordon remains an intriguing collection of talents. Stretched too thin as a playmaker and shooter on the wing, he still might have room to blossom against opposing big men whose lack of quickness he can exploit.
In theory, Gordon should be much better suited to a big role as a power forward. Of course, we said that last season and Gordon responded to his ascension to the starting lineup by averaging 12.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.7 steals and blocks combined per game. Those are perfectly fine numbers, but hardly ones you rush out to grab on the waiver wire.
Gordon is capable of more and is a must-add option anywhere he is available in the wake of this trade. However, after 4,000-plus minutes, it's getting harder and harder to see real superstar potential here.
This could also lead to more opportunities for Biyombo, who remains a solid option for rebounds and blocks if nothing else.
Cavaliers lose Kevin Love
This might be the biggest one for Fantasy players to deal with because Love has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season, returning borderline second-round value while averaging 20.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.6 3-pointers per game.
With the playoffs looming, this is a tough loss for anyone who has been relying on Love this season, especially because there just isn't any obvious replacement option on the Cavaliers' roster.
Love is drop-able in all formats, with a timetable that likely costs him all but the final two weeks of the season.
Channing Frye will likely step into the starting lineup to replace Love, and should be a good option on a per-minute basis, though it's fair to wonder if the 33-year-old can hold up to a 30-MPG role. If he can, he could be a hugely valuable Fantasy option, and is actually playing at a top-50 level on a per-36 minute basis, per BasketballMonster.com.
Frye averages 18.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.9 3-pointers per-36 overall, and though he would likely see less usage in the starting lineup, he actually averages 20.0 points per-36 minutes in 225 minutes with both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving on the floor.
In all likelihood, Frye should settle in as a 25-28 MPG option, with perhaps Richard Jefferson taking on more minutes as a small-ball power forward. In that kind of role, Frye could contribute 13-15 points and enough shooting numbers to be well worth owning in category-based leagues. He won't replace everything Love does, but he can be helpful enough to staunch the bleeding.
Other than Frye, there are actually a number of decent big man options available, as highlighted in my look at the waiver wire Monday. Jusuf Nurkic, Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are certainly worth a look, as is Juancho Hernangomez, who put together a massive 27-point, 10-rebound performance Monday night.
