The season is more than 40 percent complete. By this point, you should have a firm grasp on how your fantasy team ranks among the competition. At the same time, COVID absences have thrown a wrench into many managers' plans, leaving them more likely to engage in trade talks. This is a perfect opportunity to sell high or buy low, depending on who's on your roster.
Sell High
Embiid is a perennial sell-high when he gets scorching hot. The injury-prone center has yet to play more than 64 games in a season, and he was already dealing with knee pain at the start of the season. He's been the fourth-best fantasy player on a per-game basis since Dec. 1, and that's probably his absolute ceiling. Plus, the 76ers are obviously under pressure to deal Ben Simmons to give Embiid more help, which in turn would presumably lower his usage. Move him now before he gets hurt starts sharing the court with another high-usage option.
I've been a Ball fantasy supporter for a long time despite the woeful field-goal and free-throw percentages, plus the constant injuries. So, I feel validated by his impressive campaign with the Bulls. But even with that being the case, I still have to recommend moving him at his peak. He hasn't played more than 63 games in a season, and his numbers are being buoyed recently by coronavirus absences to teammates and an unsustainable block rate. Over the past seven games, he's averaging 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.9 blocks. Now that the Bulls are healthy, it's time to move on before he turns back into a fourth option with normal block numbers for a point guard.
Like plenty of other players, Holiday has benefited from his teammates missing time due to health and safety protocols. Over the past seven games, he's averaged 24.1 points on 56.3 percent shooting, 8.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.3 steals in 35.1 minutes. The only player now on the injury report for Milwaukee is Brook Lopez after Donte DiVincenzo made his season debut on Christmas. The Bucks' offense will normalize back to the machine that it is, and Holiday will fall back into his usual production. Plus, he's been relatively injury-prone throughout his career.
Porzingis has shown the ability to play at an All-Star level before, so it's not surprising that he's averaging 21.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.6 blocks since the start of December. However, he's done a lot of that damage without Luka Doncic around, and his usage figures to decline once the star player returns. Ultimately, Porzingis fits the Embiid mold: he's injury prone – trade him at his peak production.
Hart has been on a tear over his past eight games, with the guard averaging 16.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.1 steals. However, he's seen an increased usage rate due to multiple teammates sitting out at different times, and that's been coupled with an absurd 61.5 percent shooting from the field. Hart is a proven stat-stuffer, so there is some realness here, but the efficiency is smoke and mirrors. Plus, if Zion Williamson comes back, Hart will see significantly decreased usage.
Buy Low
It's no secret the Pacers are exploring trade options to start a rebuild. With young players obviously expected to be the focus, it seems reasonable to expect Duarte will be looking at increased usage after the trade deadline. His playing time has decreased significantly since the start of the year after the Pacers got healthy – mainly getting Caris LeVert back. Duarte started the year with eight straight games of double-digit shot attempts, averaging 17.8 points on 44/42/92 shooting, 4.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 34.9 minutes.
Sacramento is a disaster. The roster construction doesn't make sense, and the team is 14-21. Fox has looked especially bad, compounded by Tyrese Haliburton looking amazing in Fox's recent absence. It's looking increasingly likely that Fox could be on the move. If that's the case, he could see a spike in production. Either way, it's hard to imagine him playing much worse than he has been, so it's not a bad time to buy in.
Tobias Harris, 76ers
Inexplicably, Harris is shooting just 29.9 percent from three this year after four straight years above 36 percent. That's brought down his scoring average and field-goal percentage, which has led to a significant dip in fantasy value. But his rebounding and assists are up, so once he starts shooting better, he could start putting together some massive games. I'll bank on him regressing positively to the mean and try to acquire him for a low price.
It looks like Ricky Rubio has suffered a severe injury, which is a tough blow for the surprisingly-successful Cavaliers. Darius Garland also entered protocols Tuesday, so the team will be shorthanded on guards in both the near and far future. That could open up more usage for Okoro. He's still a relatively low-usage player, but he's got the organization's commitment, and the team doesn't have many other places to turn. He might only be worth pursuing in 14-team leagues, however.
