Week 11 Rankings: Standard | PPR
The Rams' decision to start Jared Goff seems to be an obvious one. So obvious, in fact, that pretty much everyone in the NFL has been calling for it for the past month with the Case Keenum-led offense struggling to do much of anything all season.
The Rams rank dead last in the NFL with 15.4 points per game, and it's hard to find anything they do well at this point, unsurprisingly. Even the rushing game, expected to be their strong suit, has been one of the least effective units in the league. So, even with an inexperienced quarterback set to take his first NFL snaps in Week 11 against the Dolphins, things can't get much worse for the Rams, right?
Probably not. At least, not worse. You can't go many directions when you're rock bottom. However, it's fair to be skeptical that this offense will be much better with Goff under center. Keenum hasn't been good, to be sure, but it's hard to blame him for all that ails this offense, so it's no sure thing this offense will be better with new leadership.
That isn't to say the Rams shouldn't have made the move to Goff. The season isn't lost -- the Rams are somehow 4-5 despite their 32nd-ranked offense -- but it's pretty clear they weren't going anywhere with Keenum in the short or long term. However, we can't just ignore that it took three and a half months for the Rams' coaching staff to come to the conclusion that Goff was the better option, despite the abundant evidence that Keenum wasn't getting the job done.
It's tempting to fall into the trap of believing that the fact Keenum wasn't playing is proof that he shouldn't have been playing, but it's also fair to acknowledge we're at an information deficit here. We know what Goff looked like as a prospect, and we saw him a bit in the preseason. But few have seen Goff attempt a pass since, so all we can really go on is what we know. And what we know is, up until Tuesday morning, the Rams' coaching staff didn't think Goff gave them a better chance of winning right now than Keenum.
So, my expectations for Goff are pretty low. Add in that most rookie quarterbacks struggle, and it's hard to get excited about him. There is almost no reason to think Goff will have much Fantasy appeal, especially when you look at the lackluster production we've seen from the likes of Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota as rookies, even though all would go on to some success shortly after.
Goff's Fantasy appeal isn't the only question we have to answer here. We also have to try to figure out what kind of impact he might have on the Rams' offense elsewhere. There aren't a ton of Fantasy-relevant options on this offense, and given the fairly low expectations for Goff, we probably shouldn't expect many more to come out of nowhere. But should expectations change for Gurley and Kenny Britt, the lone other bright spots on the offense?
I'm not so sure, especially in Gurley's case. Keenum's mediocrity certainly hasn't helped Gurley, but his issues go beyond that. The offensive line has struggled to create any holes for him, and Gurley hasn't done much with what little room there has been. The ability that made him so valuable last season is surely still there, but this is looking more and more like a lost season for the near-consensus No. 1 running back in Fantasy coming into this season.
There is, of course, a chance the change sparks something in the offense that gets Gurley going, but that's basically just wishful thinking. Goff isn't late-career Peyton Manning with the wheels, but we're probably not going to see him run the read-option and create opportunities for Gurley that way. If Gurley plays better from this point on, it will probably be more the result of regression to the mean than anything Goff does, unless the rookie really exceeds expectations.
As for Britt, well, it might be even harder to get excited about this move from his perspective. As unlikely as it is that Britt's long-awaited breakout has come with Case Keenum throwing him passes, he isn't exactly the kind of wide receiver we think can succeed with any old quarterback. Keenum isn't great, to be sure, but any change at quarterback can have unexpected consequences, and this move makes Britt a bigger question mark, if nothing else. Britt may not suffer, but there's also no guarantee he and Goff will have the same rapport.
There's always a chance Goff really benefited from the time on the bench, and is just now getting his chance because he is truly ready. The talent is obviously there, and if a few months of seasoning on the bench helped him mature, the Rams are going to look brilliant. However, this isn't exactly the softest landing, coming against a Dolphins defense that looks much improved of late thanks to a resurgent pass rush. So some struggles are to be expected for Goff.
Outside of maybe Gurley -- who has too consistent of a workload to ever really bench with confidence -- there might not be much of value for Fantasy players to find down the stretch in Los Angeles. Which isn't really any different from the Keenum era.
