2012 Target Report: AFC East
Which receivers and running backs from the AFC East stood out to our Nathan Zegura in 2012? He breaks down the final target, red zone and goal line trends for owners looking ahead to 2013.
Throughout the year I highlighted various statistical facts and trends. With the year now complete, it's time to look back at each team and see what we can learn from the 2012 target, red zone and goal line data as we begin our preparations for the 2013 Fantasy season. I will profile each division separately in the coming weeks.
(148 total/9.2 per game),
Catch Rate Leaders: C.J. Spiller (75.4 percent), Brad Smith (63.6), Donald Jones (61.2)
Yards Per target Leader: C.J. Spiller (8.1), Scott Chandler (7.7)
Fantasy Points Per Target Leader: Scott Chandler (1.26), Brad Smith (1.24), C.J. Spiller (1.02)
Red Zone Quarterback Performance: Ryan Fitzpatrick -- 24.6 percent touchdown rate (69 opportunities/ 17 touchdowns)
Red Zone Carry Leader: C.J. Spiller (21/four touchdowns)
Red Zone Target Leader: Steve Johnson (17/three)
Red Zone Touchdown Rate Leader: Scott Chandler (50 percent), Donald Jones (25 percent)
Goal Line Quarterback Performance: Ryan Fitzpatrick -- 44.4 percent (18 opportunities/eight touchdowns)
Goal Line Carry Leader: Fred Jackson (five/two)
Goal Line Target Leader: Steve Johnson (four/zero)
Goal Line Touchdown Rate Leader: Lee Smith (100 percent), Scott Chandler (67 percent), Brad Smith (67 percent)
The Bills were one of the most inefficient passing teams in 2012 as not a single tight end or wide receiver caught at least 65 percent of their targets or averaged 8.0 yards per target. ... If you need another reason to like Spiller take a look at his efficiency in the passing game. Spiller led the Bills with a 75.4 percent catch rate and led the 40 most targeted running backs in the NFL with an 8.1 yards per target average. ... Chandler was solid in the red zone with a 50 percent touchdown rate but needs to be more involved in the red zone if he is ever going to be Fantasy relevant. That's why Chandler had a Fantasy-killing six games of three or fewer points. ... Johnson was only successful in 2012 due to his large target volume. In fact, Johnson saw twice as many targets as everyone else on the Bills in 2012. He struggled in every available metric and if he were to see a decrease in targets or efficiency next year, he would really be a bust candidate. Johnson caught only 53.4 percent of his targets and averaged just 7.0 yards and 0.95 points per target. Johnson also struggled in the red zone with only three scores on 17 targets. If things change in Buffalo, he could see his 1,000-yard streak of three seasons come to an end.
(131 total/8.2 per game),
Catch Rate Leader: Daniel Thomas (68 percent), Reggie Bush (67.3), Davone Bess (58.1)
Yards Per target Leader: Brian Hartline (8.3), Rishard Matthews (7.6), Davone Bess (7.4)
Fantasy Points Per Target Leader: Charles Clay (1.01), Anthony Fasano (0.93), Brian Hartline (0.87)
Red Zone Quarterback Performance: Ryan Tannehill -- 18.9 percent touchdown rate (53 opportunities/10 touchdowns)
Red Zone Carry Leader: Reggie Bush (23/three)
Red Zone Target Leader: Anthony Fasano (13/five)
Red Zone Touchdown Rate Leader: Jorvorskie Lane (50 percent), Anthony Fasano (38.4 percent)
Goal Line Quarterback Performance: Ryan Tannehill -- 46.7 percent touchdown rate (15 opportunities/seven touchdowns)
Goal Line Carry Leader: Daniel Thomas (nine/four)
Goal Line Target Leader: Anthony Fasano (seven/four)
Goal Line Touchdown Rate Leader: Jorvorskie Lane (100 percent), Anthony Fasano (57.1 percent), Daniel Thomas (44 percent)
Tannehill was not the most accurate quarterback as a rookie, but he showed the ability to get the ball down the field to his top target Hartline, who topped 1,000 yards and averaged 8.3 yards per target. ... Hartline had 253 yards and his only touchdown in Week 4 against Arizona, so he averaged just 55.3 yards per game in the other 15. ... Hartline did not score a single touchdown on 12 red zone targets and is much better suited to be a No. 2 receiver. ... Hopefully the team lands Greg Jennings as has been speculated, giving Tannehill a legit No. 1 receiver. ... Bess caught a career-worst 58.3 percent of his targets, but that should go up if he gets to move back into the slot in 2013 as Tannehill progresses as a quarterback. ... Should Reggie Bush move on, both Daniel Thomas (68.2 percent catch rate and 7.0 yards per target) and Lamar Miller (75 percent catch rate and 5.6 yards per target) look capable of stepping up in the passing game. ... The bottom line is that if there is going to be a weekly Fantasy play in the Miami passing game in 2013, that name is not currently on this roster. ... Chad Johnson wanted me to note that he is "still open."
New England Patriots
total/10.9 per game),
Catch Rate Leader: Danny Woodhead (72.7 percent), Rob Gronkowski (69.6), Wes Welker (67.4), Julian Edelman (65.6)
Yards Per target Leader: Rob Gronkowski (10.0), Danny Woodhead (8.1), Wes Welker (7.7)
Fantasy Points Per Target Leader: Rob Gronkowski (NFL-Best 1.84), Julian Edelman (1.3), Danny Woodhead (1.14)
Red Zone Quarterback Performance: Tom Brady -- 29.8 percent touchdown rate (94 opportunities/28 touchdowns - second in NFL)
Red Zone Carry Leader: Stevan Ridley (62/12) -- both second in NFL
Red Zone Target Leader: Wes Welker (18/five), Rob Gronkowski (17/eight)
Red Zone Touchdown Rate Leader: Rob Gronkowski (47.8 percent), Aaron Hernandez (33 percent), Julian Edelman (33 percent)
Goal Line Quarterback Performance: Tom Brady -- NFL-best 68.2 percent (22 opportunities/NFL-best 15 touchdowns)
Goal Line Carry Leader: Stevan Ridley (20/eight -- third most in NFL)
Goal Line Target Leader: Rob Gronkowski (eight, five -- most in NFL)
Goal Line Touchdown Rate Leader: Wes Welker (100 percent), Julian Edelman (100 percent), Rob Gronkowski (62.5 percent), Aaron Hernandez (60 percent), Shane Vereen (60 percent)
Make no mistake about it, Gronkowski was every bit as dominant in 2012 as he was in his record-setting 2011 season. Gronk led the NFL by averaging 1.84 points per target, which was just about the same as the 1.88 he averaged in 2011. Let's hope Gronk can bounce back from his broken arm and be the star he was pre-injury. ... Should Welker depart in the offseason and Edelman recover from his injury, there is good evidence to support a breakout in 2013. Edelman caught a similar percentage of his passes to Welker (65.6 vs. 67.4), was similar in terms of yards per catch (11.2 vs. 11.5) and yards per target (7.34 vs. 7.74). Edelman did out-produce Welker in terms of Fantasy points per target 1.3 to 0.98 thanks to scoring three times on 32 targets as opposed to just six scores on 175 targets for Welker. ... Hernandez set career lows in terms of catch rate (61.4), yards per catch (9.5), yards per target (5.82) and Fantasy points per target (0.94) in 2012 but still averaged a healthy 7.8 points per game. If Hernandez can get back to his past efficiency levels, he could blow up in 2013. ... Lloyd was a big disappointment in 2012, catching a team-worst 56.6 percent of his targets, which is tough to do when Brady is your quarterback. Lloyd finished the year with seven games of five Fantasy points or fewer and as a result, he will enter 2013 with plenty of upside and a very cheap price tag. Still, he did not improve one bit as the season wore on and you have to be careful when drafting him. ... Woodhead was fantastic in his role again and was actually second on the team at 8.1 yards per target and third at 1.14 points per target. ... Vereen is ready to step up if called upon, averaging 11.4 yards and 1.6 points per target in limited action. Vereen also caught five passes for 83 yards and two scores in his first playoff game, so he has tremendous big-play ability in the passing game. ... Ridley was a touchdown machine in the red zone and at the goal line and that will continue in 2013, making him very reliable despite playing for Bill Belichick. ... Finally, Brady is "Tom Terrific" for a reason and will remain a top option, despite not being a trendy runner/passer at the quarterback position. His prowess in scoring situations is almost unparalleled and this New England offense is as good as any in the game today.
New York Jets
(95 total/5.9 per game),
Catch Rate Leader: Dustin Keller (77.8 percent), Chaz Schilens (68.3), Shonn Greene (63.3)
Yards Per target Leader: Dustin Keller (8.8), Jeremy Kerley (8.7)
Fantasy Points Per Target Leader: Dustin Keller (1.2), Jeremy Kerley (1.0)
Red Zone Quarterback Performance: Mark Sanchez -- 19.6 percent touchdown rate (51 opportunities/10 touchdowns)
Red Zone Carry Leader: Shonn Greene (47/eight)
Red Zone Target Leader: Jeremy Kerley (10/two)
Red Zone Touchdown Rate Leader: Santonio Holmes (50 percent), Jeff Cumberland (33 percent)
Goal Line Quarterback Performance: Mark Sanchez -- 28.6 percent (14 opportunities/4 touchdowns)
Goal Line Carry Leader: Shonn Greene (19/seven -- fourth most)
Goal Line Target Leader: Jeff Cumberland , Chaz Schilens (three/one)
Goal Line Touchdown Rate Leader: Bilal Powell (60 percent), Dustin Keller (50 percent)
The only bright spot on this team from an efficiency standpoint was Keller, who caught 77.8 percent of his targets while averaging 8.8 yards and 1.2 Fantasy points per target. Keller is a free agent and should he end up in a favorable situation (while staying healthy) he could put up massive numbers in 2013. ... Kerley was a nice surprise and posted a solid 8.7 yards and 1.0 points per target in 2012. If the team can get a legit No. 1 receiver (and an NFL caliber quarterback), I think Kerley could do well in a supporting role and produce No. 3 receiver numbers for Fantasy owners. ... Holmes was the top target when healthy, seeing over 10 targets per game, but had just one game of 10 Fantasy points out of his four starts. Holmes has 10 Fantasy points in just three of his last 14 games in New York. ... Rookie Stephen Hill showed some flashes as a rookie, but will have to massively improve on his 44.7 percent catch rate and 5.3 yards per target average if he wants to be any kind of a Fantasy factor. ... Keep an eye on Cumberland should Keller depart. Cumberland produced 50 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games with at least four targets in 2012. ... Greene was not pretty, but he was a solid red zone scorer in 2012 and punched in eight red zone touchdowns (tied for seventh in the NFL). Greene scored seven times at the goal line -- fourth most in the NFL -- although Powell (three scores on five carries) was the more efficient goal line runner. For a third-down back, Powell was dreadful in the passing game, catching just 47 percent of his targets and gaining 3.8 yards per target. ... The Jets were an anemic passing attack in 2012 and I would not at all be surprised if that was the case again in 2013, but keep Holmes on your radar as a backup receiver on Draft Day if he returns as the top dog for the Jets.
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