2013 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0
It's never fun identfiying players who might not live up to expectations. Our Jamey Eisenberg shares a list of 10 names he'll likely avoid on Draft Day.
The first time writing about busts prior to the start of training camp proved, unfortunately, to be prophetic about one player. Danario Alexander was on the list, and he's already out for the season with a torn ACL.
As I said in my initial look at potential busts a few weeks back, this isn't a fun story to write.
But as always, we have to share our thoughts with you about why some players could potentially struggle this season.
Then it's up to you on how to proceed on Draft Day. With that in mind, here are 10 additional bust candidates for 2013.
, QB, Seahawks: I originally listed Wilson at
the bottom of my breakouts column as another option to consider, but
that was when
Since then, Harvin had hip surgery and will miss the majority of the
season. Along with that,
to go to Switzerland during training camp for a procedure on his
is a breakout
candidate -- he's the only receiver you can trust right now -- Wilson
could struggle with two of his top targets banged up. The Seahawks also
remain a run-first team, and Wilson and
Robert Griffin III
were the only Top 25 Fantasy quarterbacks with
fewer than 400 pass attempts (393). He was incredibly efficient at 64.1
percent passing with just 10 interceptions, but replicating those stats
will be difficult. He also said he doesn't want to run as much, and he
had 489 rushing yards and four touchdowns last season. I don't expect
Wilson to be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback again, and he's just outside
my Top 12 as a high-end backup.
I'd rather draft: Andrew Luck , Eli Manning , Colin Kaepernick
, RB, Texans: Calling Foster a bust is painful
because not only is he a great running back, he's also a good guy in
general. But we're talking about his Fantasy value here, and it's not
looking good. There are too many red flags based on where you have to
draft him. He practiced for the first time on Friday heading into the
third preseason game, first because of a calf injury and now with a back
problem, which has caused pain in his legs. He's also coming off a
season where he had 405 carries, including the playoffs, and 460 total
touches, which is an unreal workload for any running back. He's also
averaged 372 touches over the past three seasons, so a further breakdown
is possible. Going one step further, the Texans have a quality backup in
, who could help ease Foster's workload. He remains a
first-round pick, for now, but I wouldn't draft him before No. 10
overall. And getting Tate as a handcuff in Round 6 or 7 is a must if you
I'd rather draft: Trent Richardson , Marshawn Lynch , Ray Rice
, RB, Colts: The hope is Bradshaw will be
ready for the start of the season, but he just started practicing this
week heading into the third preseason game because of right foot surgery
-- which took place in January. He's had a history of foot problems, and
it may just be catching up to him. Even when he does return, there's no
guarantee he'll stay healthy for a full season. When healthy, Bradshaw
is solid with at least 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns in two of
the past three seasons, with 25 total touchdowns over that span. He's
expected to start for the Colts, but he's becoming a risky commodity
with each passing day. You can also expect to see him on the injury
report on almost a weekly basis. He might not be worth the pick where
he's going, which is the end of Round 6 based on his Average
I'd rather draft: Eddie Lacy , Rashard Mendenhall , Daryl Richardson
, RB, Panthers: Some owners may consider
Williams a sleeper with
(ankle) banged up, but Stewart hasn't been ruled out for the year. Coach
Ron Rivera also remains hopeful he could return for the season opener,
although that seems unrealistic. Regardless, I have little faith in
Williams even if he does start 16 games. He struggled as the starter for
the majority of the season in 2012 when Stewart battled injuries.
Williams had 10 games with double digits in carries but managed just one
game over 100 rushing yards (Week 17 against lowly New Orleans) and five
games with double digits in Fantasy points (two against the Saints). He
also has minimal receiving skills with fewer than 16 catches in each of
the past three years. On top of all that, he's 30 and plays with a
the offense, especially rushing the ball near the goal line. I'd rather
gamble on a younger running back with upside than take Williams if I
could avoid it.
I'd rather draft: Ben Tate , Ronnie Hillman , Mark Ingram
, RB, Eagles: Brown had some sleeper potential
when training camp started with the addition of coach Chip Kelly and his
run-based offense. But Brown has been outplayed by
in practice, and he's also dealt with a quad injury. Oh,
and by the way, he's just the No. 2 running back at best behind
, who isn't expected to sit much. Brown had two great
games in 2012 when McCoy was dealing with a concussion for four games,
but he also had two miserable ones. Brown should beat out Polk for the
backup role behind McCoy, and he's worth drafting as a handcuff. But any
thoughts of Brown being a potential flex option as long as McCoy is
healthy because Kelly will run the ball a lot should be gone by now. It
doesn't look like that's going to happen, and Brown is only worth a
I'd rather draft: Pierre Thomas , Bernard Pierce , BenJarvus Green-Ellis
, WR, Colts: Wayne is still going to produce at
a high level, but if you're expecting him to be a Top 15 Fantasy
receiver like he was last year that's not likely to happen. In 2012,
Wayne was rejuvenated with the addition of quarterback
and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. The latter called
the fifth-most pass plays in the NFL last year, which allowed Wayne to
be the second-most targeted receiver behind
at 194. It's unlikely new offensive coordinator Pep
Hamilton will give Wayne that many attempts. Along with that, Wayne had
just two touchdowns and one 100-yard game in the final eight outings and
just five total touchdowns on the year. He's being drafted toward the
end of Round 4, which is too soon in standard leagues, and this could be
the point where Wayne's production starts to decline since he'll be 35
I'd rather draft: Danny Amendola , Pierre Garcon , Eric Decker
, WR, Bills: Johnson has been the model of
consistency the past three seasons with at least 76 catches, 1,000 yards
and six touchdowns over that span. But I'm nervous about him this year.
He's had a rough offseason and training camp with a broken back and
hamstring problem, which he said continues to be an issue heading into
the third preseason game. The Bills also have a new coach in Doug
Marrone, who is committed to running the ball with
. Buffalo also added two rookie receivers in
take targets from Johnson. But the X-factor in all this is the
quarterback situation for the Bills. If
(knee) is forced to miss any time,
would be the starter. Remember how good Kolb was for
the past two years? Yeah, I'd rather forget that as
I'd rather draft: Kenny Britt , Josh Gordon , Chris Givens
, WR, Jaguars: Shorts is an extremely talented
receiver, and he's entering his third season, which could be a breakout
year. But I'm nervous about his injuries and quarterback situation.
Shorts dealt with two concussions in 2012, and hopefully that doesn't
continue to be a problem this year. He also missed time in training camp
with a calf injury. And then there's his quarterback.
is going to open the season as the starter, and that
doesn't inspire confidence in Shorts posting quality stats. Now, Shorts
could be great to start the year with
(suspension) out, but keep in mind the majority of
Shorts' production last year (nine games with double digits in Fantasy
points in a standard league) came when
was hurt. The standout running back is healthy now,
and he will be the focal point on offense. I don't have a problem with
his ADP, which is Round 7 as the No. 30 receiver. But anyone considering
him a starter could be left disappointed.
I'd rather draft: Antonio Brown , Jordy Nelson , Torrey Smith
, TE, Vikings: Last year, Rudolph was tied with
for the second-most touchdowns among tight ends with
nine, trailing only
(11). But Rudolph had just 53 catches for 493 yards. The yardage was the
lowest among the Top 15 Fantasy tight ends. And he was just No. 11 among
targets for tight ends at 93. Rudolph had five games with double digits
in touchdowns in 2012, with three of them coming after Harvin was lost
for the season with an ankle injury. The Vikings have replaced Harvin
, and they will take targets away from Rudolph. He was
great in the red zone last year with eight touchdowns in 15 targets, and
he should do well down there again. But if his touchdowns decline and he
doesn't bring up his catches and yards then this could be a down year.
Consider him a low-end starting tight end on Draft Day with a late-round
I'd rather draft: Jermichael Finley , Antonio Gates , Greg Olsen
, TE, Texans: This mention is strictly being
made because of ADP, since Daniels is being drafted as the No. 11 tight
end. That's too high. I like Daniels as a Top 15 tight end, but I don't
want him as my starter. He was good last season with 62 catches for 716
yards and six touchdowns, but that's about his ceiling, especially since
the touchdowns were a career high. He had just four games with double
digits in Fantasy points, but none after Week 9. And now the Texans
appear to have the second receiver they've coveted for seemingly the
past 10 years since
drafted in rookie
14-team leagues or more you should consider Daniels a starter. But in
12-team formats you should only use Daniels as a bye-week or injury
replacement. He's a safe Fantasy option, but there are tight ends out
there with more upside this season.
I'd rather draft: Martellus Bennett , Jordan Cameron , Zach Sudfeld
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