2013 Draft Prep: Latest draft trends
It's amazing what happens when players perform well in the preseason. The hype sometimes spirals out of control.
In our third look at players moving up and down in the Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com, no one has improved their stock more than Browns tight end Jordan Cameron . He is up 64 spots from last week to No. 121 overall and is now being drafted as the No. 13 tight end.
It's warranted given the way Cameron has played through two preseason games, and if he does well in the third outing he could easily enter the Top 10. Some other guys moving up include Michael Vick , Bilal Powell and Kenbrell Thompkins , while some guys dropping include Lamar Miller , Zac Stacy and Denarius Moore .
We'll go over that and more in this analysis of ADP, which is a great tool to help you on Draft Day. The big day should be approaching soon, so be prepared.
The first round looks like this …
, running back,
2. Doug Martin , running back, Buccaneers
3. Arian Foster , running back, Texans
4. Jamaal Charles , running back, Chiefs
5. C.J. Spiller , running back, Bills
6. Marshawn Lynch , running back, Seahawks
7. Ray Rice , running back, Ravens
8. Calvin Johnson , wide receiver, Lions
9. Drew Brees , quarterback, Saints
10. Trent Richardson , running back, Browns
11. LeSean McCoy , running back, Eagles
12. Aaron Rodgers , quarterback, Packers
Foster is the name to monitor, and he's already dropped one spot from where he's been all offseason. Even though he came off the physically unable to perform list Wednesday, we could see him continue to drop. Fantasy owners need to be concerned about his workload from last year, and I wouldn't draft Foster until at least No. 10 overall.
My first round in a standard league would be as follows: Peterson, Spiller, Charles, Martin, McCoy, Richardson, Lynch, Rice, Johnson, Foster, Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley . I don't want a quarterback in Round 1, and neither should you. And Morris and Ridley have the potential to be Top 12 running backs again like they were in 2012.
My first round in a point-per-reception league would be as follows: Peterson, Spiller, Charles, Martin, Johnson, McCoy, Richardson, Rice, Foster, Jimmy Graham , Matt Forte and Reggie Bush . Graham is worth taking early in Round 2 in a standard league, but his potential to dominate the tight end position makes him worth drafting in Round 1 in a PPR format. The same goes for guys like Forte and Bush based on their expected reception totals. Lynch, Morris and Ridley are better suited as second-round guys in PPR.
Vick all reward, no risk: The top of the quarterback list remains the same with Brees, Rodgers and Peyton Manning the first three guys drafted, but Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have moved ahead of Cam Newton , who dropped to No. 6. Newton's poor preseason has some Fantasy owners down on him, which could be a mistake. Still, if he falls in your draft, that's only a benefit to someone who wants to target him in Round 4.
Three backup quarterbacks are on the rise in Vick, Carson Palmer and Brandon Weeden . Vick is up 26 spots to No. 116 overall as the No. 16 quarterback, Palmer is up 27 spots to No. 123 overall as the No. 17 passer and Weeden is up 16 spots to No. 178 overall as the No. 27 quarterback.
I hate saying this, but I'm starting to like Vick a lot as a Fantasy option again. The reason is there's all the reward and little risk. If you draft him in Round 10 or later based on his ADP and he struggles then you just cut him and find another backup quarterback on the waiver wire. But if he does play well in Chip Kelly's offense then he's either your new starter or someone you can trade.
Palmer's Fantasy value is also on the rise because of his potential to shine in Bruce Arians' offense and the opportunity to throw to Larry Fitzgerald . I like Palmer as a high-end backup as well, and keep in mind Andrew Luck attempted the fifth-most passes last season with Arians calling the plays for the Colts. Look for Palmer to throw this year until his arm falls off.
As for Weeden, he has been stellar in the preseason and has put himself in the conversation as a late-round flier. In two-quarterback leagues, Weeden is an excellent backup option, and he should be considered a bye-week replacement in all formats.
Running back breakdown
Bell tolls for Fantasy owners: If you had any of your Fantasy drafts already then you likely took Le'Veon Bell with a pick anywhere from Round 3 to Round 5. And you aren't very happy now. Bell is dealing with a foot sprain and is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the season.
He has dropped 12 spots to No. 56 overall, and his ADP should continue to free fall. I would only select Bell in re-draft leagues with a late-round pick at this point. His backups are Jonathan Dwyer , Isaac Redman , LaRod Stephens-Howling and newly-acquired Felix Jones , and none of them are appealing either. You might want to pass on the Steelers backfield on Draft Day.
Other guys with significant movement down include Darren McFadden , Miller, Chris Ivory , Ahmad Bradshaw , BenJarvus Green-Ellis , Bryce Brown , Pierre Thomas , Zac Stacy , Johnathan Franklin , Mikel Leshoure , Isaiah Pead , Joseph Randle , LaMichael James , Knowshon Moreno , Robert Turbin , Denard Robinson and Mike Tolbert .
Fantasy owners have the usual concerns with McFadden and his health, and his poor preseason, including injuries to the offensive line, has caused him to drop six spots to No. 37 overall. If he's there in Round 4, however, consider him worth the risk.
Miller went from a breakout star prior to the preseason to finding himself in a battle for the starting job with Daniel Thomas , who is up 32 spots to No. 177. You can gamble on Thomas with a late-round flier if you want, but I'll gladly take Miller in Round 4 at No. 40 overall after he dropped seven spots. Talent wins out, and Miller is easily the best running back for the Dolphins.
Ivory (hamstring) and Bradshaw (foot) have dealt with injuries this preseason, but they should be ready to go for Week 1. I can understand the uncertainty with Ivory and Bradshaw given their history, but both remain flex options worth drafting, especially since they have dropped to Round 7. Powell is up 28 spots to No. 163 overall with Ivory being banged up, and he should be in the mix as a No. 4 running back just in case Ivory struggles.
Buying into Williams? Other guys on the rise include Daryl Richardson , DeAngelo Williams , Ben Tate and Joique Bell . Richardson, as we explained last week, is really the only Rams running back worth drafting. His ADP is Round 7 at No. 81 overall after moving up 18 spots, but you should target him in Round 6 as a high-end flex option.
Williams, who is up 11 spots to No. 93 overall, will benefit greatly if Jonathan Stewart (ankle) opens the season on the PUP list, but he's been miserable through three preseason games at just 2.4 yards per carry. I wouldn't draft him in Round 8, but he still could be a starter for the beginning of the year if Stewart is out.
Tate is gaining momentum, and rightfully so given Foster's status. He's someone I target in every draft, and his ADP is up six spots to No. 99 overall. Bell, who is up 18 spots to No. 203 overall, is the handcuff to Reggie Bush . You can give up on Leshoure in the majority of leagues.
Wide receiver breakdown
Thompkins thriving: Thompkins has been among the biggest risers in ADP at his position. He is up 22 spots to No. 162 overall, and he will likely continue to climb following his performance Thursday against the Lions with eight catches for 116 yards. He now has 13 catches for 142 yards through three preseason games and has locked up the starting job opposite Danny Amendola . He is a great No. 4 Fantasy receiver to target in Round 8. By comparison, Aaron Dobson is down nine spots to No. 161. I'd take a late-round flier on Dobson at this point, but that's about it.
Some other receivers with their ADP on the rise include Chris Givens , Michael Floyd , Vincent Brown and Mohamed Sanu . Givens is up 24 spots to No. 112 overall, but I think that's low. I would start looking at Givens in Round 7. All of these guys have plenty of potential, but Givens is my favorite.
Giving up on the Raiders: Two receivers in Oakland are falling in Moore and Rod Streater . Moore is down six spots to No. 132 overall, and Streater is off the map at No. 218 overall after dropping 12 spots. It's understood given Matt Flynn is the quarterback, and no one wants to trust any of the Raiders.
I'd still take a flier on Moore, who is in his third year, but only with a late-round pick. And Streater has plenty of upside, but I'd wait to get him on waivers during the season if he starts playing well.
Some other receivers dropping include Jordy Nelson , Kenny Britt , Kendall Wright , Malcom Floyd and Santonio Holmes . I like seeing Nelson and Britt fall because that only makes their value that much better. I'd love to see Nelson fall to Round 7, and I'll take Britt in Round 9. They are both going to have quality seasons if they can stay healthy, but Nelson is still not playing after knee surgery in early August.
My favorite values at receiver: Some of the best buys at receiver based on ADP include T.Y. Hilton (No. 79 overall) in Round 7, Josh Gordon (No. 108 overall) in Round 9, Ryan Broyles (No. 146 overall) in Round 13 and Alshon Jeffery (No. 150 overall) in Round 13. Along with Thompkins, Givens and Floyd these are all receivers I target on Draft Day.
Tight end breakdown
Cameron the hot name: The way I tier my tight ends is Graham in the first two rounds, followed by Rob Gronkowski , Jason Witten , Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis in Rounds 4-6. If I miss on those guys, I'll wait for Jermichael Finley or Jared Cook in Round 7 or 8.
After those guys, it's a crap shoot, but the guy I find myself targeting is Cameron. He has the biggest breakout potential of anyone at the position, and you're seeing why in the preseason with two touchdowns through two games.
He is a Top 10 tight end in my opinion, and playing for Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner will only enhance his talent. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue throughout his career, he should be a solid starter in all leagues.
Two other tight ends on the rise include rookies Tyler Eifert and Zach Sudfeld . Eifert is up to No. 151 overall, and Sudfeld is up to No. 169 overall. I'd gamble on Sudfeld over Eifert because of Brady.