2014 Draft Prep: Hold your horses on Nick Foles
Nick Foles was awesome last season. But those numbers scream regression as our Jamey Eisenberg says the Philly signal-caller is being drafted too soon based on his ADP.
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I like Nick Foles. His story last season was great, for the Eagles and Fantasy owners, and he should be a solid quarterback again this year.
But I'm not drafting him. His Average Draft Position is too high.
Heading into the final week of preseason action, Foles was being drafted at No. 56 overall, which is Round 5 in a 12-team league. There's no way I would draft Foles in that spot unless it's a two-quarterback format.
He's also being drafted ahead of quarterbacks I like better, who have a much higher ceiling in Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. I would even draft Robert Griffin III ahead of Foles because I think Foles is headed for a regression.
Last year, Foles was awesome when he took over for the ineffective Michael Vick. He passed for 2,891 yards, 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions, finishing as the No. 11 Fantasy quarterback despite making just 10 starts. From Week 9 to the end of the season he had at least 21 Fantasy points in eight consecutive games.
But here's what's facing Foles this season. He loses DeSean Jackson, who was a vital cog in this attack, and Foles targeted him more than any other receiver (70 times), completing 71.4 percent of those passes to Jackson.
The Eagles did a nice job in adding talent around Foles as they brought back Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, who missed last season with a torn ACL, traded for Darren Sproles and drafted Jordan Matthews. Zach Ertz will see a bigger role and LeSean McCoy is still a stud catching passes out of the backfield. We'll see how it all works out, but I'm anticipating some growing pains, especially with Maclin and Cooper battling injuries in training camp.
Foles will also have a tougher schedule. Last year, he had 10 of his touchdowns (37 percent of his production) and 834 of his passing yards (29 percent) against two of the three worst pass defenses in 2013 with Oakland and Minnesota. That will be tough to replicate in any two-game stretch.
He does benefit with two games against Dallas' defense this year, but that first meeting with the Cowboys isn't until Week 13. Before then he gets four games against elite defenses in San Francisco, St. Louis, Arizona and Carolina and then Seattle in Week 14, which is the start of most Fantasy playoffs.
We'll also find out if teams have schemed against Kelly's offense and can force Foles into more mistakes. Not that it matters much, but Foles has two touchdowns and three interceptions in three preseason games.
Foles should still be considered a top-12 Fantasy quarterback this year. He'll have plenty of great moments and I would settle for him as a starter. But I won't draft him in Round 5 and neither should you.
The right spot for Foles is Round 8 or later. That's a safer spot to draft him based on how he should play this season.
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