2016 Fantasy Football: Training Camp Believe It or Not 2.0
Two wide receivers have seen their value spike due to positive camp reports while a young tight end is battling recurring headaches. Heath Cummings discusses the Fantasy implications.
As preseason games begin we'll have far more to speculate on, but thankfully week 2 has brought some pretty interesting news.
At times it's every bit as important what coaches and teammates don't say as what they do. In other situations it's really difficult to swallow a coach telling us something that we had all but ruled out. We'll address those issues and more in the second installment of Training Camp Believe It or Not.
It's time to start worrying about Ladarius Green.
There's been hype surrounding Green since he was drafted to be the heir apparent to Antonio Gates. Unfortunately, Gates didn't get the memo and Green had to leave town to become the No. 1 tight end in Pittsburgh. That only increased the hype, at least until we realized he wasn't healthy enough to practice.
I was concerned when I read this piece and no one on the Steelers would offer any type of timetable for Green to start participating. That concern turned to panic when Aditi Kinkhabwala reported Green's ankle was fine but recurring headaches were keeping him off the field. All of the sudden the lack of a timetable made perfect sense. I'm not sure how you can draft Green as a No. 1 TE when we have no idea when he'll be able to practice.
Verdict: Believe it. Yes, I believe in Green's talent and opportunity. That's not enough anymore. I view Green more like Jimmy Graham than Tyler Eifert now. All three have the ability to produce top five tight end numbers, but all three have significant injury concerns. Green's is especially scary.
The difference for me is that Eifert's injury is a more common one with an expectation that he'll be himself once he returns. Graham is trying to return from an injury that is more troubling, while Green is dealing with an issue that may be related to multiple concussions, obviously a hot-button issue right now.
News is coming in very quickly on this, with a report coming out while I 'm writing that Green may actually be considering retirement. It's sounding more and more like his long-term health is under serious consideration. In a situation like this we'll keep our ears to the ground, but it would be difficult to draft him as anything more than a late round flier at this point.
Marvin Jones is the No. 1 in Detroit
Well, that escalated quickly. I wasn't all that surprised to hear that the Lions signed Jones, he seemed like a perfect complement to Golden Tate. Recent reports suggest he's much more. Reports that Jones is catching everything thrown his way and is developing rapport quickly with Matthew Stafford were to be expected. What's surprising is the idea that Jones is dominating targets and Tate looks to be struggling.
The truth is that neither of these guys has ever been a true No. 1 receiver so there was no reason to assume Tate would take that role. Jones profiles as a better downfield target and a better option in the red zone, so it shouldn't be all that surprising that the team is leaning on him to partially fill the gaping hole left by Calvin Johnson. Tate was never going to fill that role, now we'll get to see if Jones can.
Verdict: Don't believe it. I don't know how you define No. 1, but the real answer is that the Lions just don't have one. I would expect Tate to lead the team in targets, receptions and yards. Jones could lead the team in touchdowns, but it's a toss-up. What these positive reports do tell us is that Tate probably isn't going to be the true No. 1 at all, which could prevent him from being a top-25 wide receiver where he's being drafted.
While I think Tate's ADP is perfectly fine (especially in PPR), Jones is pretty close to a steal. He should be thought of as a solid No. 3 WR in Fantasy and he's being drafted more like a No. 4. He's lasting until the 8th round in most drafts, and I'd be thrilled to draft him there.
Justin Forsett is turning back the clock to 2014.
The Ravens backfield is exceptionally crowded, but that's not necessarily a good thing. Rookie Kenneth Dixon has already missed time with injuries, Terrance West has a history of uninspiring play and Javorius Allen was a dud last year. That leaves Justin Forsett, and John Harbaugh says he looks just like he did two years ago.
It's important to remember that Forsett was a top-eight running back in 2014 in both formats. While it's his only season that was even close to that good, he was pretty great before he got hurt in 2015 as well. Forsett ranked 12th among RBs through 10 weeks in PPR scoring. The fact that he's being drafted in Round 8 is laughable, and you should take advantage of it.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Forsett will turn 31 in October and has had exactly one season with more than 182 touches. He was incredible in 2014, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while scoring eight touchdowns. To expect anything close to that would be absurd.
If you're taking odds on who will lead the Ravens in rushing this season, Forsett has to be the favorite, but I wouldn't put him anywhere close to even odds. This smells like a situation where once again the Ravens have multiple running backs making starts and none of them are particularly exciting. Forsett is a fine option is you start WR-heavy and want a starting running back late in the draft. Just don't expect anything close to his one good season.
Sammie Coates is the second best WR in Pittsburgh.
When Martavis Bryant was suspended, we knew someone was going to get a lot more targets for the Steelers. At first it seemed like Markus Wheaton, but it was hard to get excited after what we saw from him last year. The signing of Ladarius Green also brought hope, but we covered his issues above. The one man we may have been too slow to come around to was Sammie Coates, and he's putting on a show in camp.
Coates has a great combination of size and speed but had a quiet rookie season and was largely forgotten in Fantasy. His performance in camp and the huge opportunity has changed that. I currently have him ranked as a No. 4 wide receiver but won't hesitate to move him up further if he carries this over to preseason games.
Verdict: Believe it. I wouldn't expect Bryant-like production from the second-year wideout, but I do expect him to earn the No. 2 job in Pittsburgh and produce at a higher level than Markus Wheaton. In an offense with Antonio Brown and not much else for the first four weeks Coates should has a chance to see a large number of targets. If he capitalizes we could be looking and a breakout season with top 30 results at the wide receiver position.
















