Fantasy Football Week 13 Lineup Cheat Sheet: Starts, sits and sleepers
Need help selecting a starter for your Week 13 lineup? Dave Richard combines film study, stats and confidence to help put your best foot forward.
The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.
The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. If a player isn't listed, don't start him.
Numbers are based on non-PPR scoring but are typically applicable to PPR formats.
To find a specific player, use your search function -- CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on Macs. If neither of those are options, or if you're on a mobile device, you can search by game.
If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) using #CBSFLCS and I'll give it a look, time permitting.
Cowboys at Vikings
|Dak Prescott||6.2||Sam Bradford||3.6|
|Ezekiel Elliott||9.2||Matt Asiata||5.5|
|Dez Bryant||7.5||Jerick McKinnon||4.6|
|Cole Beasley||5.1||Stefon Diggs||8.1|
|Jason Witten||4.0||Adam Thielen||3.6|
|Cowboys DST||7.6||Cordarrelle Patterson||2.8|
The Cowboys have struggled with receivers, particularly those in the slot and those who get a lot of targets. Diggs checks all those boxes. He's had at least 13 targets in three of his past four (he didn't against the Cardinals) and often rolls in the slot. A receiver has scored on Dallas in eight straight and a slot receiver has come through for a touchdown in four of the last six. Start Diggs with confidence.
Chiefs at Falcons
|Alex Smith||5.4||Matt Ryan||7.6|
|Spencer Ware||7.7||Devonta Freeman||8.4|
|Tyreek Hill||6.4||Tevin Coleman||5.1|
|Albert Wilson||2.4||Julio Jones||9.1|
|Travis Kelce||9.2||Taylor Gabriel||5.7|
|Chiefs DST||7.3||Mohamed Sanu||3.3|
If not for getting banged up and missing some playing time two weeks ago, we'd probably be looking at Hill as a top-20 receiver. He has at least 10 targets in two of his past three and at least nine Fantasy points in four of his past six.
Brimming with upside and surging into a large role with the Chiefs offense, Hill should be given a lot of opportunities against a Falcons secondary missing top corner Desmond Trufant. With that kind of advantage, and with the Chiefs expected to chase points, Hill is good enough to work as a low-end No. 2 receiver or as a high-potential flex.
Though he's doing it on an average of just four touches per game, Gabriel has scored and delivered at least 12 Fantasy points in four straight. The thinking is that he'll earn a few more touches moving forward and have a chance to break a big play or two as the Chiefs work hard to contain Julio Jones. Because of the limited touches, there's risk in starting Gabriel, but at least one receiver has gone off for 10-plus points against the Chiefs in eight straight.
The matchup is good. If you don't see a lot of upside in a receiver you're starting, replace him with Gabriel.
Lions at Saints
|Matthew Stafford||6.6||Drew Brees||9.6|
|Theo Riddick||6.7||Mark Ingram||8.0|
|Golden Tate||6.0||Tim Hightower||5.9|
|Marvin Jones||5.8||Michael Thomas||8.4|
|Anquan Boldin||4.6||Brandin Cooks||8.0|
|Eric Ebron||6.4||Willie Snead||6.3|
|Lions DST||3.8||Coby Fleener||3.8|
You already might not trust Ebron after last week's donut (which happened because the Vikings zeroed in on him, not because he struggled or got Matthew Stafford mad). Now he'll take on a Saints defense that's been pretty good against tight ends.
And here's a reality check -- despite his nice catch totals from a few weeks back, Ebron's been under 80 yards in three of four and scored a rushing touchdown -- nothing through the air. You'll start him, but don't have high expectations.
Rams at Patriots
|Jared Goff||5.3||Tom Brady||8.3|
|Todd Gurley||6.6||LeGarrette Blount||7.8|
|Kenny Britt||6.7||Dion Lewis||6.4|
|Tavon Austin||3.4||Julian Edelman||6.5|
|Lance Kendricks||5.4||Malcolm Mitchell||6.1|
|Rams DST||3.7||Chris Hogan||3.0|
Mitchell is a pretty good route runner with good speed and hands. He not only has Tom Brady's attention in the red zone, catching two touchdowns from inside the 10 last week, but he's also been tried on deep passes. He nearly scored on two such targets last week and drew a pass interference call on another.
Mitchell seems to get the most playing time when Rob Gronkowski has been out, so that's something to keep in mind. But the Rams are expected to play without starting corner E.J. Gaines, making the matchup even better for the potential No. 3 Fantasy receiver.
Broncos at Jaguars
|Trevor Siemian||3.4||Blake Bortles||3.5|
|Devontae Booker||6.9||T.J. Yeldon||4.4|
|Demaryius Thomas||6.8||Allen Robinson||5.2|
|Emmanuel Sanders||5.9||Marqise Lee||4.5|
|Broncos DST||9.2||Jaguars DST||4.0|
You know you've been waiting to sit Robinson for a while now, so here's your chance. The Broncos have been outstanding against No. 1 outside receivers like A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Julio Jones and T.Y. Hilton.
Robinson has been shaky all season, with four games with 10-plus Fantasy points, seven with seven or fewer. This just seems like a week where his ceiling is seven Fantasy points and his floor is ... well, let's just not get into that.
Texans at Packers
|Brock Osweiler||2.6||Aaron Rodgers||9.4|
|Lamar Miller||7.2||James Starks||7.1|
|DeAndre Hopkins||6.9||Jordy Nelson||8.8|
|Will Fuller||2.9||Davante Adams||7.4|
|C.J. Fiedorowicz||5.2||Randall Cobb||6.2|
|Ryan Griffin||2.0||Ty Montgomery||2.1|
|Texans DST||3.9||Jared Cook||2.8|
Three of the Texans' five road games this season have been blowout losses, and a fourth should be in store Sunday at Green Bay. Starks has been touchdown dependent, but last week we saw the Packers turn to him in the fourth quarter to help kill the clock in a blowout win.
The thinking is he'll get the same kind of workload -- 22 touches -- and do a better job with it against a Texans defense that's allowed seven touchdowns to running backs on the road (five games) compared to four at home (six games).
Eagles at Bengals
|Carson Wentz||3.3||Andy Dalton||4.7|
|Wendell Smallwood||5.7||Jeremy Hill||7.6|
|Darren Sproles||5.0||Rex Burkhead||2.4|
|Dorial Green-Beckham||4.2||Tyler Boyd||4.4|
|Zach Ertz||5.8||Brandon LaFell||3.8|
|Eagles DST||7.7||James Wright||2.2|
Three of Hill's four games with 10-plus Fantasy points (non-PPR), four of his six touchdowns and both of his games with at least 90 rushing yards have come at home. Plus if last week is any indication, Hill might start making an impact as a pass-catcher after drawing career-highs in targets and catches with six.
Philly has allowed a touchdown to a running back in two straight but has otherwise played good run defense, but playing on the road after losing at home on Monday night puts them in a tough spot.
Dolphins at Ravens
|Ryan Tannehill||3.7||Joe Flacco||4.8|
|Jay Ajayi||7.4||Kenneth Dixon||6.5|
|Jarvis Landry||5.0||Terrance West||5.3|
|Kenny Stills||4.7||Steve Smith||7.1|
|Dion Sims||2.6||Mike Wallace||5.3|
|Dolphins DST||6.8||Breshad Perriman||3.2|
Get over last week's disappointing game and give Smith another shot. The last three touchdowns Miami has allowed have come from receivers lined up in the slot, two on pass plays of 15-plus yards. He'll see a lot of Bobby McCain in coverage and should have an edge on him. It helps that a receiver has scored on Miami in all but two games this year, and it's not always the outside guy doing the work.
49ers at Bears
|Colin Kaepernick||8.1||Matt Barkley||3.8|
|Carlos Hyde||9.3||Jordan Howard||8.9|
|Torrey Smith||4.1||Jeremy Langford||3.8|
|Jeremy Kerley||2.0||Marquess Wilson||5.5|
|Vance McDonald||6.7||Cameron Meredith||3.1|
|Garrett Celek||3.0||Bears DST||3.6|
Chicago's defense is a mess. Over the past three weeks it has allowed two passing touchdowns per game including one to a tight end in each. McDonald has been the most consistent pass catcher for Kaepernick, coming through with more targets, catches, yards and touchdowns over his past four than anyone else on the Niners. The Bears have been burned for a score by a tight end in three straight.
Kaepernick has been piling up stats despite losing games, recording multiple passing touchdowns in three of his past four and running wild since taking over the starting job. Chicago has allowed 21 or more Fantasy points to a passer in four of its last five and Kap's been good for a minimum of 23 Fantasy points in each of his last four. The Niners have a shot to win this one on the strength of Kaepernick's play.
Bills at Raiders
|Tyrod Taylor||6.0||Derek Carr||7.8|
|LeSean McCoy||9.4||Latavius Murray||7.9|
|Sammy Watkins||6.95||Jalen Richard||3.0|
|Bills DST||4.2||Amari Cooper||7.2|
Crabtree has only three games this season with less than nine Fantasy points -- against the Chiefs, Broncos and Texans. Those are some tough pass defenses. The Bills aren't. They've had receivers score six times on them over the past four weeks.
To be fair, Buffalo hasn't given up a ton of yards in those four weeks, but Crabtree's expected volume should continue, knowing that there isn't a dangerous cornerback who might shut him down. He's great as a No. 2 receiver and a better choice than Amari Cooper in PPR leagues.
Giants at Steelers
|Eli Manning||6.8||Ben Roethlisberger||8.6|
|Rashad Jennings||5.4||Le'Veon Bell||9.6|
|Paul Perkins||2.5||Antonio Brown||9.7|
|Odell Beckham||8.9||Eli Rogers||4.3|
|Sterling Shepard||4.8||Ladarius Green||4.8|
|Will Tye||3.6||Steelers DST||6.7|
Despite getting 15 carries for the third straight game, Jennings disappointed with 3.7 yards per run and no touchdowns against the Browns. Now he'll go from an easy matchup to a tough one. The Steelers have given up only 3.4 yards per run over their last four with only Ezekiel Elliott scoring on them in that span. Jennings is a touchdown-dependent running back who has scored twice all season. Sit him.
Eli Manning said he actually apologized to Shepard for not throwing to him last week, going on to say that they need to get him involved. Doing so against the Steelers could be difficult, because only one slot receiver has scored on Pittsburgh all year and only four receivers, slot or otherwise, have had over 100 yards.
Shepard only has one touchdown on the road anyway. He is basically a touchdown-or-bust receiver anyway, so the odds are he won't help your squad.
Redskins at Cardinals
|Kirk Cousins||7.4||Carson Palmer||5.8|
|Rob Kelley||5.6||David Johnson||9.5|
|Chris Thompson||3.1||Larry Fitzgerald||5.4|
|Jamison Crowder||7.6||Michael Floyd||2.6|
|DeSean Jackson||6.6||Jermaine Gresham||5.0|
|Pierre Garcon||3.7||Cardinals DST||6.6|
Sure, the Cardinals allowed three scores to running backs last week and six in their past four overall. But in that same span they've held opposing rushers to 2.8 yards per attempt!
Kelley's as touchdown dependent as they come, but if he doesn't score you're looking at maybe 40 or 50 yards. Is it likely he'll score? Maybe he could if he's inside the 5, but Arizona has allowed just one rushing touchdown to a running back in six home games, and Kelley doesn't catch the ball much. Theo Riddick, Kenneth Dixon and Dion Lewis are safer choices.
Buccaneers at Chargers
|Jameis Winston||7.0||Philip Rivers||8.8|
|Doug Martin||8.2||Melvin Gordon||9.1|
|Mike Evans||9.4||Tyrell Williams||7.8|
|Russell Shepard||2.5||Dontrelle Inman||4.0|
|Cameron Brate||6.0||Travis Benjamin||3.5|
|Buccaneers DST||5.3||Antonio Gates||7.1|
The Bucs did a nice job containing Jimmy Graham last week, but it doesn't hide the fact that they struggle against tight ends. Before Week 12 they had allowed at least nine Fantasy points to a tight end in four straight. Expect Gates to bounce back in a big way after getting a donut last week, particularly since Philip Rivers tends to lean on the big guy when his wide receivers aren't at full strength.
Rivers is the toughest quarterback the Bucs have faced in three games and Gates will be a key target.
Panthers at Seahawks
|Cam Newton||5.6||Russell Wilson||7.2|
|Jonathan Stewart||5.8||Thomas Rawls||7.0|
|Kelvin Benjamin||4.9||Doug Baldwin||8.5|
|Ted Ginn||2.7||Jimmy Graham||9.1|
|Greg Olsen||6.6||Seahawks DST||9.1|
Newton came through for over 20 Fantasy points last week, connecting on deep passes to Ted Ginn and Kelvin Benjamin to buoy his stats. It'll be tougher for him this week as the Panthers offensive line continues to get tested on the road, this time against a strong defense.
Michael Bennett is expected back for Seattle, just in time to help test an O-line that is on backups at the tackles and at center. Newton has played the Seahawks six times in four seasons and has maxed out at 21 Fantasy points, falling below 15 Fantasy points four times.
Why take the risk when you can go with Kaepernick, Stafford, Fitzpatrick or Prescott instead?
Colts at Jets
|Andrew Luck||8.0||Ryan Fitzpatrick||6.4|
|Frank Gore||6.8||Matt Forte||9.0|
|T.Y. Hilton||8.7||Bilal Powell||4.2|
|Donte Moncrief||7.3||Brandon Marshall||8.6|
|Jack Doyle||3.2||Quincy Enunwa||5.6|
|Dwayne Allen||2.4||Jets DST||3.5|
Enunwa - Sneaky Sleeper
We're quick to jump back on the Enunwa bandwagon after last week's big game, but let's not forget that he's a touchdown-dependent Fantasy receiver. When he scores, he's good for your Fantasy team. When he doesn't, he's a mortal lock to deliver single digits.
While he might see a lot of coverage from slot corner Darius Butler, the reality is that the Colts have allowed multiple touchdowns to receivers in three of their past four. Enunwa's worth trying as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver.
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