You thought you had it all figured out, didn't you?

"Oh, I don't need to extend myself for a quarterback. There's so many of them, and they're all about the same. Plus, it's not like they take the beating running backs do."

My, how things change in three week's time.

It's not that the reasoning was all wrong. It's just that it was overly confident, claiming to know the future before it arrived. And if you followed it to the letter, passing up every Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor on the waiver wire because you were convinced your starter -- be it Tony Romo, Drew Brees or heaven forbid, Sam Bradford -- was as good as anyone else's, you could be in a world of hurt right now.

And what if you just lost Ben Roethlisberger? Derek Carr, maybe?

Maybe. But if you're in that world of hurt, you're probably doubting your judgment at this point and could use something to measure it against. Something like a confidence scale.

Luckily for you, I've devised one of sorts. You could think of it as an alternate form of rankings, I suppose -- kind of like Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard create every week but with the rest of the season in mind -- but it's really more than that. I haven't just ordered the players but sorted them by how much faith you can have in them, which should help you determine how settled you are at the position or how aggressively you should play the matchups if you have more than one startable quarterback.

And even with the early injuries at the position, I put the number of startable quarterbacks at 18, so at least in a 12-team league, you still shouldn't have to extend yourself for one. Doesn't mean you can't upgrade, though. In the Fantasy Football world, "startable" is a pretty low threshold.

#Blessed

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers: I mean ...

2. Tom Brady, Patriots: Age hasn't caught up to him as it has Peyton Manning. As long as Rob Gronkowski is healthy, multiple touchdowns are to be expected most every week.

3. Andrew Luck, Colts: His seven interceptions have his owners down in the dumps, but his first two games were against what look like two of this year's better defensive teams. He has no fewer than six viable receiving options in an offense built to throw. He'll be fine.

Well, it's not like you're sitting them

4. Carson Palmer, Cardinals: Maybe a Johnny-come-lately who was the 19th player drafted at the position three weeks ago doesn't deserve to rank this high. Or maybe we were all just late to the party. Palmer was this good in this offense a year ago -- in the six games he played, anyway.

5. Matt Ryan, Falcons: Julio Jones isn't setting those records himself, you know, and Ryan has shown he can survive without him. Still, it's hard to get around the fact he has only once thrown for 30 scores.

6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks: He's not a threat for three or four touchdowns like most of the names in these first two groups, but as rushing quarterbacks go, he's remarkably consistent. And he has never had a red zone target quite like Jimmy Graham.

7. Andy Dalton, Bengals: Scoff all you want, but A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert form the league's best wide receiver-tight end duo. Throw in another red zone threat in Marvin Jones, a genuine pass-catching back in Giovani Bernard and a two-headed rushing attack to keep defenses honest, and Dalton has the weapons to improve upon his 2013, when he was a top-five quarterback in standard CBSSports.com leagues. How quickly we forget.

You still aren't sitting them ... probably

8. Peyton Manning, Broncos: The fact Manning still ranks this high with all the negative attention he has gotten this year is perhaps the greatest testament to the instability at the position. History shows he'll figure out how to make the most of whatever he has left.

9. Drew Brees, Saints: Time will tell if he's as resourceful as Manning, but I'm betting if Brees' shoulder allows him back into the lineup, he'll remain a prolific enough passer to keep his Fantasy owners generally content, even if it's mostly short stuff.

10. Cam Newton, Panthers: Inconsistency has been the norm for Newton dating back to his impressive rookie season, but his rushing ability gives him such a high ceiling from start to start that you wouldn't want to risk sitting him for a lesser option. He has failed to throw for even 200 yards twice already this season, and yet he's the sixth-best quarterback in standard CBSSports.com leagues.

11. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: While the Dolphins have disappointed so far, Tannehill himself hasn't, throwing for two scores in back-to-back games. Between the invisible running game, the improved receiving corps and the increased likelihood of the Dolphins playing from behind, he should remain a high-volume passer.

We may be on to something here

12. Derek Carr, Raiders: Quarterback was so deep at the start of the year that Carr didn't get enough attention as a breakout candidate, but he had no right to put up the numbers he did last year as a rookie starter for a historically woeful franchise. In Amari Cooper, the Raiders now have the type of receiver who can make the most of Carr's cannon, and their only chance of winning, really, is to outgun the competition. I'll be shocked if he doesn't crack 4,000 yards this season.

Hey, they won't kill you

13. Philip Rivers, Chargers: Perennially underrated. Rivers is coming off back-to-back 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown seasons, and it's not like the Chargers' offensive identity has changed. A lackluster start sets him back and he can be a little turnover-prone at times, but he's closer to Tannehill than perception would have you believe.

14. Matthew Stafford, Lions: Perennially overrated. He's throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson, and yet his standard for a good game is more touchdown passes than interceptions. Just how much benefit of the doubt did that ridiculous 2011 season earn him?

15. Eli Manning, Giants: Maybe I'm just susceptible to older brother bias as one myself, but I've never wanted this Manning as a starter for my Fantasy team. He's so inconsistent, both from week to week and year to year, and I feel like whenever you don't get at least two touchdowns from your quarterback, you should expect to lose. Maybe Odell Beckham makes that the norm for him this year.

16. Tyrod Taylor, Bills: Still a little leery of Taylor, but it's less because I don't think he can be as good as he was the first three weeks than because I don't think the Bills want him to be. They're a defensive-minded team whose coach has a stated preference for the running game, and I think once they sort out that running game and stop facing teams like the Colts and Patriots, he'll fall short of 200 passing yards more often than anyone wants. But hey, maybe his rushing ability will save him.

17. Marcus Mariota, Titans: Granted, Mariota's last two games were solid in their own right, but the main reason he's relevant now is because of that first one against Buccaneers team that didn't seem to realize the season had actually started. He'll be good for a rookie, but you should expect some inconsistencies.

18. Joe Flacco, Ravens: Flacco doesn't have the element of surprise going for him, what with only one viable receiving target and no running game to speak of, so he may set a career high in interceptions. But boy is he going to pile up some yards in this Marc Trestman offense. I'm thinking Jon Kitna when he teamed up with Mike Martz in Detroit.

Just ... no

19. Sam Bradford, Eagles: The Eagles offense is designed to put the ball in the hands of their running backs. Even when Bradford drops back to pass, that has been the case so far. His touchdown total will suffer if he's not permitted to stretch the field, whether by design or because of his offensive line, and that's exactly what we're seeing.

20. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: From 335 passing yards one week to 67 the next, you just never know which version of Kaepernick you're going to get. Even spotting him four Fantasy points for his rushing contributions, he's not worth the risk.

21. Alex Smith, Chiefs: I'll give it to him: For a quarterback with no deep ball who lives over the middle, Smith turns in a surprising number of two- and three-touchdown games. But when zero is just as likely of an outcome, as it was last year, you're talking about a bye-week replacement.

22. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings: What has happened to Bridgewater is what I fear may happen to Taylor. So much promise, but with Adrian Peterson back carrying the load, it's simply not needed.

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets: Fitzpatrick loses points because he's clearly a placeholder until the Jets uncover something more promising -- Geno Smith, perhaps? -- but a coordinator doesn't have to limit the playbook with him. He can make all the throws, and because of that, he'll be adequate in terms of yardage and touchdowns. He'll throw some interceptions, though.

Ew

24. Kirk Cousins, Redskins: Cousins has kind of gotten a bad rap. He would be one of the better backups in the league since he's actually capable of stretching the field, but for now at least, he has to pose as a starter on an offense without a dynamic receiving threat. No thanks.

25. Blake Bortles, Jaguars: Bortles is miraculously the 13th-best quarterback in CBSSports.com leagues to date and may turn into a decent compiler with the Jaguars consistently playing from behind. But he'll be prone to mistakes in that role and likely has many ahead.

27. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers: It hasn't been pretty for Winston so far, but when you consider he has actually outscored Stafford and Flacco, it hasn't been ugly either, at least not from a Fantasy perspective. He just got to work with Mike Evans for the first time Sunday and has another playmaker on the other side of the field. He'll make some mistakes, but at least he'll take some shots downfield.

27. Ryan Mallett, Texans: Mallett may grow into the role in time and can lean on DeAndre Hopkins until then, but his percentages are dreadful. I wouldn't expect a quarterback who completes barely half his passes to have a good touchdown-to-interception ratio.

28. Nick Foles, Rams: He's just so ... blah. Clearly, Chip Kelly thought Bradford was better, and Bradford wasn't a useful Fantasy option when he was with the Rams, who have an old-school coach and lackluster receiving corps. Foles isn't performing any miracles.

29. Josh McCown, Browns: On a week-to-week basis, I actually trust McCown to outscore Foles, but with Johnny Manziel picking up some momentum during his time filling in for McCown, job security is an issue. McCown is like Fitzpatrick -- mistake-prone, but capable -- and had a decent playmaker in Travis Benjamin.

30. Michael Vick, Steelers: He'll be unreliable as Roethlisberger's replacement, but if he can get the ball to Antonio Brown downfield and remember to run when the play breaks down, he could move up a tier.

31. Brandon Weeden, Cowboys: The Cowboys don't trust him to throw the ball downfield, hence running back Lance Dunbar's 10 receptions Sunday to wide receiver Terrance Williams' zero. Unless completion percentage matters in your league, Weeden doesn't.

32. Jimmy Clausen, Bears: His ineptitude deserves its own category. He doesn't even try to stretch the field and still struggles to complete half his passes. You may be better off starting an injured Jay Cutler.