Disclaimer ... Before you start reading, please understand that we are not in the business of stating the obvious and wasting your time (or ours), so you won't be reading here why you need to start Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, Calvin Johnson or any other top-tier players. We're here to help you make a decision on players you are on the fence about.
The high-flying offense of the Saints will not be producing for you this week. You will also be without Cam Newton, Steve Smith and the Panthers. Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler of the Bears are also out of your lineups. While that is tough, the Week 6 byes also mean that you will not be able to feast on the suspect defenses of the Saints, Panthers and Jaguars. To help you sort through the mess and stay on the winning track, here are five to start and five to sit for Week 6.
Get 'em active ...
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans (vs. GB)
Current own/start %:
98/49
I'd start him over: Tony Romo
(at BAL), Joe Flacco (vs. DAL), Eli Manning (at SF)
Something is wrong in Green Bay right now
and that something is the pass defense. It was bad in 2011 and it is
worse this year, as the Packers can not stop anyone who can throw the
ball (just ask Andrew Luck, who carved
them up on a 14-play game winning drive in Week 5). Luck finished that
game with 32 Fantasy points and he is the second straight quarterback (Drew Brees was the other) to top 30 points against Green Bay. In the
last two weeks, the Packers have allowed 808 yards and five touchdowns
passing and while Schaub won't blow up like that, he should have a solid
20-point day. Four quarterbacks have hit at least 18 points against the
Packers and three have produced at least 23, with the lone exception
being Jay Cutler in an ugly Thursday
night debacle. The Packers have allowed multiple passing scores in three
straight games and in four out of five to start the season. With Green
Bay having to be very concerned about the league's best running back in Arian Foster, look for Matt Schaub to
be able to carve up the Packers on play action. I think both Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will
have big days. If you are without Cam Newton,
Jay Cutler or Drew Brees, Schaub is a great option for you this week.
Kevin Kolb, QB, Cardinals (vs. BUF)
Current own/start
%: 44/18
I'd start him over: Tony Romo (at BAL), Christian Ponder
(at WAS), Ryan Fitzpatrick (at ARI)
I
am sure no one enjoyed the 10 days to recover after a Thursday night
beating at the hands of the Rams more than Kevin Kolb. The reason he enjoyed it so much was that he knew in Week
6 he would get to lick his wounds against the hapless Bills. Buffalo is
giving up a league-high 27.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks
and it should come as no surprise that they have also allowed a league
high 12 passing scores. Four of the five quarterbacks who have faced the
Bills this year have finished in the Top 12 at the position and each of
them has produced at least 22 points. Three quarterbacks have thrown for
three touchdowns against the Bills this year and in the last two weeks
alone, Tom Brady and Alex Smith have thrown for 650 yards and six touchdowns. The Bills
have also allowed a quarterback to run for a score (Brady and Colin Kaepernick) in those last two games. Yep, over the last two
weeks, the Bills have given up 79 points to quarterbacks, which is more
than 11 teams have allowed to quarterbacks all season! With Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells both
out, the Cardinals will need to throw it, throw it and then throw it
some more this week. Before Week 5, Kolb had posted back-to-back games
of 21 and 26 points respectively and he will get back over 20 points
this week against the Bills as a tremendous "Bye Week Broski."
Other QBs with favorable matchups: Philip Rivers (vs. DEN), Andrew Luck (at NYJ), Michael Vick (vs. DET), Matthew Stafford (at PHI), Ben Roethlisberger (at TEN), Peyton Manning (at SD) Bye Week Broski: Brandon Weeden (vs. CIN)
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers (vs. TEN)
Current
own/start %: 97/64
I'd start him over: Ahmad Bradshaw (at SF), Alfred Morris
(vs. MIN), Chris Johnson (vs. PIT)
I
have vowed to stay away from Thursday night games, but once again, I
just can't help myself. I feel very good about it this week though,
because we know which team will dominate the point of attack. The Titans
are a bad football team and the Steelers will be able to get the push up
front to lead Rashard Mendenhall to a
very solid Fantasy day. You have to be impressed with his Week 5 debut
against the Eagles, as Mendenhall ran 14 times for 81 yards and a
touchdown (the score was on a backwards pass to be fair) and added two
catches for 20 more yards. He had 101 total yards with the score and was
only the second running back all season to produce double-digit Fantasy
points against the Eagles. As Jamaal Charles
and Adrian Peterson have shown us, the
ACL injury is not what it once was, so I expect Mendenhall to keep
rolling in Week 6 against the Titans. Tennessee is giving up 24.2 points
per game to running backs this year -- third most in the NFL -- and no
opposing primary ball carrier has produced fewer than 103 total yards or
nine Fantasy points. Four of the five opposing starters have produced 14
points or better and I think Mendenhall will find the end zone against a
team that has given up 1.2 running back scores per week.
Vick Ballard, RB, Colts (at NYJ)
Current own/start %:
3/0
I'd start him over: Steven Jackson
(at MIA), Alex Green (at HOU), Chris Johnson (vs. PIT)
One man's injury is another man's
opportunity and with Donald Brown going
down in Indianapolis, Ballard will get the chance to step up. He will
also get the chance to step into many lineups now that owners have to
deal with bye weeks and injuries to expected Week 6 starters like Brown
and Cedric Benson. Brown himself had put
up at least nine Fantasy points in three of the first four games of the
year for the Colts, so they have been able to generate solid production
from the running back spot thus far. Ballard has not done anything in
his rookie season, but that should change against the bad run defense of
the New York Jets. Through five games, the Jets have been extremely
generous to opposing runners and no primary runner has been held under
nine points against them all season long. For the year, they have
allowed a league-high seven rushing touchdowns to running backs and are
giving up 24.6 points per game to the position, fourth most. The Jets
are surrendering 172 yards rushing each week, which is second most in
the NFL. Already, the Jets have allowed five runners to top 11 points
against them and Ballard could easily be the sixth. With some big name
runners either on a bye or having a brutal matchup, this is the week to
dial up Ballard as a "Bye Week Broski" No. 2 running back or flex option
against a Jets team that has allowed at least 27 points to running backs
in three straight games.
Other RBs with favorable matchups: DeMarco Murray (at BAL), Trent Richardson (vs. CIN), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (at CLE), Doug Martin (vs. KC), Bye Week Broskis: Shonn Greene/Bilal Powell if Tim Tebow starts (vs. IND), LeGarrette Blount (vs. KC), Daniel Thomas (vs. STL)
Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals (vs. BUF)
Current
own/start %: 85/41
I'd start him over: Anquan Boldin (vs. DAL), Brandon Lloyd
(at SEA), Denarius Moore (at ATL)
Andre Roberts was on my sit list for Week 5, but he is back on the
start list for Week 6 against the Bills. Roberts has scored in six of
his last nine games dating back to 2011 and while he did struggle in
Week 5, I loved that he saw 10 targets. Roberts is the clear No. 2
receiver in Arizona and since you know I love Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald this week, I also think Andre should get back into
the end zone and into your lineups. The Bills have allowed a league-high
10 wide receiver touchdowns this year and six of those have gone to
non-primary receivers, also most in the NFL. They are giving up 29.6
points per game to the position this year and they have allowed multiple
receiver scores and 31 or more receiver points in three different games.
Roberts has seen his targets increase in each of the last three weeks
and it will happen again this week due to the fact that Arizona will
have to throw the ball on nearly every play. Roberts has a tasty matchup
against the Bills and he can help get you through the Marques Colston, Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall bye week blues.
Other WRs and TEs with favorable matchups: Percy Harvin (at WAS), Andre Johnson (vs. GB), Jeremy Maclin/DeSean Jackson (vs. DET), Vincent Jackson (vs. KC), James Jones (at HOU), Sidney Rice (vs. NE), Steve Johnson (at ARI), Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown (at TEN), Heath Miller (at TEN), Owen Daniels (vs. GB), Fred Davis (vs. MIN), Kyle Rudolph (at WAS) Bye Week Broskis: Josh Gordon (vs. CIN), Mike Williams (vs. KC), Dennis Pitta (vs. DAL)
Ride the pine ...
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (at BAL)
Current own/start %: 97/20
I'd
rather start: Ben Roethlisberger (at
TEN), Kevin Kolb (vs. ARI), Christian Ponder (at WAS)
The Ravens have not allowed a quarterback to
throw for multiple passing touchdowns against them in 23 straight
regular season games. That is the daunting trend that Tony Romo has to try and deal with coming off of the bye week, which
followed a disastrous five-interception loss to the Bears in Week 4.
Romo has not produced 20 Fantasy points in a game since Week 1 when he
had 29 against the Giants. Since then, Romo has a grand total of 27
Fantasy points and has been a huge bust. The Ravens are giving up just
11 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, due in large part
to the fact that they have allowed a league-low two passing touchdowns
all year long. Only Michael Vick has
topped 20 points against the Ravens in 2012 and he needed nine points
with his legs to get there. Tom Brady,
who is on a different level than Romo, managed just 19 points against
this Ravens team and that is why I don't see any reason to start Tony in
Week 6. I do believe in him long term and would absolutely buy low after
the stinker I expect him to have this Sunday, but I am not starting him
in any league this week.
Other QBs with tough matchups: Tom Brady (at SEA, but I would not sit him), Robert Griffin III (vs. MIN), Andy Dalton (at CLE), Ryan Tannehill (vs. STL), Carson Palmer (at ATL), Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker (vs. PIT)
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (vs. MIN)
Current
own/start %: 100/82
I'd rather start: DeMarco Murray (at BAL), BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(at CLE), Donald Brown (at NYJ)
Alfred Morris has been a Top 12 Fantasy running back in four of the
first five weeks of the NFL season, which is mighty impressive. Equally
impressive is the fact that no running back has finished in the Top 12
or produced double-digit Fantasy points against the unbelievably stout
run defense of the Vikings. Minnesota enters Week 6 with the league's
second toughest defense on running backs. They are giving up 7.8 Fantasy
points per game to the position (second), 57.4 yards rushing per game
(fourth) on 3.0 yards per carry (third) and they are one of only two
teams that have yet to allow a single running back touchdown. Even
scarier for Alfred Morris is that of
the 7.8 points per game that the Vikings are allowing this year, more
than half of it is coming from receiving totals, as backs are averaging
45 receiving yards per game. Morris doesn't even have 45 yards receiving
on the season and has just two catches for 16 yards in five games total.
So, all of his production will have to come on the ground against the
Purple People Eaters and that is a scary prospect. Robert Griffin III could be out for this game as he recovers from a
concussion and if that is the case, it will only mean more defensive
pressure on Morris. He has been and is a flat out stud, but this is a
week to temper your expectations for Alf and look for other options.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants (at SF)
Current own/start
%: 100/80
I'd rather start: Stevan Ridley (at SEA), Rashard Mendenhall
(at TEN), Fred Jackson (at ARI)
Fresh
off of a career-best 200 yards rushing against the Browns in Week 5,
Bradshaw will get brought back to earth against the brick wall known as
the 49ers run defense. This year, the 49ers have not allowed a single
runner (or group of runners for that matter) to reach 90 yards rushing
or score a single touchdown against them. In fact, only one group of
running backs has even topped 70 yards rushing against the 49ers, who
are allowing a league-low 6.2 Fantasy points per week. Despite facing
the talented duo of the Bills last week, the fact still remains that
only one runner has even topped six points against them. That runner was Adrian Peterson, who needed 27 touches to get to 10 Fantasy points in
Week 3. Keep in mind that only one running back has produced 100 yards
rushing against the 49ers in their last 44 games and they have allowed
only two running back rushing scores in their last 22 games. With only
two runners above 80 yards (AP and Marshawn Lynch)
in the last 22 games as well, it will take a big receiving effort from
Bradshaw to produce double-digit points in Week 6. In the 2011 NFC
Championship Game, Bradshaw did have 12 points against the 49ers on 26
touches and had a season-high 52 receiving yards. Keep in mind that five
receiving Fantasy points for Bradshaw is an aberration and it has
happened only five times in 74 career games. If you are out of options,
you can hope for the best with Bradshaw, but I'd rather take my big Week
5 and run before dialing AB back up in Week 7 against Washington.
Steven Jackson, RB, STL (at MIA)
Current own/start %:
99/52
I'd rather start: Mikel Leshoure
(at PHI), Chris Johnson (vs. PIT), Doug Martin (vs. KC)
After holding BenJarvus Green-Ellis to just 14 yards on nine carries in Week 5, the
Dolphins remain the league's top run defense, giving up just 61.4 yards
per game on the ground. They are ceding just 2.8 yards per carry -- also
best in the NFL -- and no running back has rushed for a touchdown or
produced double-digit Fantasy points against them since Arian Foster did it in Week 1. When you also consider that no running
back has run for 80 yards or averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry
(with a minimum of six carries) against this defense, it seems like we
are in store for another week of disappointment from Mr. Jackson. After
all, Jackson himself has not scored a single touchdown, produced
double-digit Fantasy points or run for 80 yards in a single game this
year either. I am sorry Miss Jackson, I am for real when I say Steven
has to be sitting on the bench in Week 6 against the Fins.
Other RBs with tough matchups: Chris Johnson (vs. PIT), C.J. Spiller (at ARI), Alex Green (at HOU)
Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens (vs. DAL)
Current own/start
%: 99/55
I'd rather start: Malcom Floyd (vs. DEN), Sidney Rice
(vs. NE), Michael Crabtree (vs. NYG)
Over
the last two weeks, Anquan Boldin has
been the leading receiver for the Ravens, catching 13 of his team-high
22 targets for 213 yards. Boldin has produced at least eight Fantasy
points in three of his four games this year -- including the last two --
but also has two stinkers with a combined four points. This week he
takes on a Cowboys team that has allowed just two receivers all year
long -- Brandon Marshall and Devin Hester -- in the Week 4 blowout, to even top six points against
them. In fact, Marshall is the only receiver all year who has even
eclipsed the 60-yard mark against this lockdown defense that has had two
weeks to prepare for the Ravens. Boldin has been a hot topic given his
excellent play of late, but both he and Torrey Smith (who will need a bomb or a score to succeed) will have a
long day at the office against the Cowboys, who are giving up 14.5
points (second fewest) and 0.5 touchdowns (fifth fewest) per game.
Some WRs and TEs with tough matchups: Brian Hartline (vs. STL), Domenik Hixon/Hakeem Nicks (at SF), Pierre Garcon (vs. MIN), Nate Washington (vs. PIT), Nate Burleson (at PHI), Davone Bess (vs. STL), Darrius Heyward-Bey (at OAK), Jermaine Gresham (at CLE)
Good luck this week!
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